ATL: BARRY - Models

[mcheer23]

GFS has a 1004mb system moving into bolivar at 114 hours

Actually takes a SW jog after that frame, makes landfall near Freeport, TX

[TheAustinMan]

Re UK Met:

974mb is pretty low for 62k winds (71+ mph). But I guess it could be a case where the pressure falls quickly there for a while without the opportunity for the winds to correspondingly follow. The UK Track takes it in near Grand Isle/Port Fourchon with a slightly west of due north heading and inland toward Livingston Parish (east of Baton Rouge) and then gradually brings it northward (east of due north) toward a position just west of Jackson, MS.

That may indeed be the case, given that in general the model depictions for 92L haven't been particularly coalesced, but I will caution that UKMET's pressure-wind relationships are generally not very good from what I've seen, regardless of winds lagging pressures (as is the case with many global models).

[Steve]

GFS has a 1004mb system moving into bolivar at 114 hours

Actually takes a SW jog after that frame, makes landfall near Freeport, TX

It's a different take than the OG GFS which brings a tightening storm into around Grand Isle at 138 but seriously intensifies it the 12 hours preceding the below plot. If it's wrong again as the GFS often was, glad (?) we replaced it with New GFS. IDK.

[stormlover2013]

Re UK Met:

974mb is pretty low for 62k winds (71+ mph). But I guess it could be a case where the pressure falls quickly there for a while without the opportunity for the winds to correspondingly follow. The UK Track takes it in near Grand Isle/Port Fourchon with a slightly west of due north heading and inland toward Livingston Parish (east of Baton Rouge) and then gradually brings it northward (east of due north) toward a position just west of Jackson, MS.

Trending towards euro

[Siker]

Re UK Met:

974mb is pretty low for 62k winds (71+ mph). But I guess it could be a case where the pressure falls quickly there for a while without the opportunity for the winds to correspondingly follow. The UK Track takes it in near Grand Isle/Port Fourchon with a slightly west of due north heading and inland toward Livingston Parish (east of Baton Rouge) and then gradually brings it northward (east of due north) toward a position just west of Jackson, MS.

As AustinMan said, that's almost certainly an artifact of low-resolution of that UKMET output. Anything below 990mb on the UKMET I would safely bump the winds up by 15kt. I remember there was a run during Irma that had a central pressure near 930 but winds of 85kt.

[Steve]

Agreed.

JMA is slightly more defined and farther SW in the Gulf at 72 hours which is as far as I can get it.

Canadian seemed to be the last outlier and just dropped it in the Gulf, moved it west a bit and kicked it back up intensified into the Panhandle. It's only out to 36 hours, but in the next few minutes, we'll have to see if it too has figured out a different solution or if it's going to stick to its proverbial guns.

[ColdMiser123]

Agreed.

JMA is slightly more defined and farther SW in the Gulf at 72 hours which is as far as I can get it.

Canadian seemed to be the last outlier and just dropped it in the Gulf, moved it west a bit and kicked it back up intensified into the Panhandle. It's only out to 36 hours, but in the next few minutes, we'll have to see if it too has figured out a different solution or if it's going to stick to its proverbial guns.

Going to make landfall in southern Louisiana this run.

[Siker]

Need to find the script I made last season for plotting UKMET data from that text product. Might have deleted it on accident.

[Steve]

Agreed.

JMA is slightly more defined and farther SW in the Gulf at 72 hours which is as far as I can get it.

Canadian seemed to be the last outlier and just dropped it in the Gulf, moved it west a bit and kicked it back up intensified into the Panhandle. It's only out to 36 hours, but in the next few minutes, we'll have to see if it too has figured out a different solution or if it's going to stick to its proverbial guns.

Going to make landfall in southern Louisiana this run.

That was kind of the last holdout of the major models, so clearly that's changed. Now to see if they run the HWRF/HMON which should start showing in the next 25-35 minutes if so. I can't remember which one runs first (around noon) and which one starts showing up after that on TT.

Here is CMC at 84 hours

[stormlover2013]

Cmc is trending west, so we have a trend

[MississippiWx]

CMC into Grand Isle at 114 hours. 997mb, intensifying rather quickly and strongest run yet.

[Steve]

CMC into Grand Isle at 114 hours. 997mb, intensifying rather quickly and strongest run yet.

Looks to be the eastern outlier now with the western outlier being on the southern side of SE Texas. Let's see what the EC does at 12z, because it is no longer either the only western solution (since everyone else joined in) or even the western-most solution based on comparisons with some of the 12z models.

[floridasun78]

mjo moving into gulf that could help 92l

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Euro just initialized, lets see what it shows.

[NDG]

Through 48 hrs the Euro is fairly close to last night's run.

[CrazyC83]

Through 48 hrs the Euro is fairly close to last night's run.

A touch farther south and west. The farther southwest it goes, I think the stronger it could get as it gets deeper warm water and loses some continental dry air.

[NDG]

Through 72 hrs is also identical to last night's forecasted position and strength for the same time.

[NDG]

Through 48 hrs the Euro is fairly close to last night's run.

A touch farther south and west. The farther southwest it goes, I think the stronger it could get as it gets deeper warm water and loses some continental dry air.

I'm comparing it to last night's run, not yesterday's 12z run.

[Steve]

72 hours it's a bit WSW of the 00z run and maybe slightly weaker on the low-res (1007 vs. 1005 at 00z).

What appears to be happening is that when the low gets into the GoM, 92L will round the southern periphery of high pressure in a mouth/smile like pattern with a fairly shallow arc at least through the middle of the run.

EC 00Z @ 72 hours


Can't get 12z to work at all for some odd reason. Y'all know where it is.

[LeonardRay]

at 96 hours looks like it might bomb