ATL: FERNAND - Remnants - Discussion

[setxweathergal64]

I agree it looks like a TD on satellite, can you highlight the center possibly?...it looks to me like this disturbance, is moving towards the Texas coast?

I'm near Beaumont, Tx. Our local met also agrees south of Brownsville. Just wondering what steering currents are influencing this track.

I'll bet your local met is Greg Bostwick. I went to school at A&M with Greg back in the 1970s. I estimated the low center (approx) on the image below. That ship to the NE appears to either have a bad wind direction or it reported the wrong ship coordinates.


http://wxman57.com/images/gulfdist.JPG

Yes, Greg Bostwick I trust him wholeheartedly. I had a video from Harvey come up in a fb memory a few days back. Listening to it again reminded me why I trust him so much. No hype, just facts. I also need to add that I seek out your posts on s2k especially regarding the gulf because i trust you as well. Thank you for everything you do here. I love this forum.

[AnnularCane]

Quite a good-sized invest. I swear it must take up half the Gulf. Looks like it would be better suited for the MDR.

[tailgater]

Chances increasing
2. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located over the south-central Gulf of Mexico have become more
concentrated since last night. Recent visible satellite imagery
indicates that the surface circulation associated with the low has
also become better defined. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form during the next two or three days while the low moves
slowly westward or west-southwestward toward the coast of Mexico.
Interests along the northeast coast of Mexico should monitor the
progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[underthwx]

Up to 70% as of 2 pm NHC outlook..

[CrazyC83]

This is probably closer to being a TD or TS than 91L is.

[underthwx]

Looks like recon scheduled for tomorrow in the western gulf...

[CYCLONE MIKE]

And of course with Louisiana being between the two systems we have nothing in our forecast for the next week but subsidence, dry northerly flow, and late summer heat. Highs in the upper 90’s forecast through Sunday

[underthwx]

And of course with Louisiana being between the two systems we have nothing in our forecast for the next week but subsidence, dry northerly flow, and late summer heat. Highs in the upper 90’s forecast through Sunday

Yuck.... I think we are in the same boat as you CM....more hot and dry conditions...bring on Fall...

[PTrackerLA]

And of course with Louisiana being between the two systems we have nothing in our forecast for the next week but subsidence, dry northerly flow, and late summer heat. Highs in the upper 90’s forecast through Sunday

It is miserable. It's been such a wet summer but I'd take the rain back over high pressure and heat, especially in September!

[Sciencerocks]

[ROCK]

Looks better on Geo loop 4kM reso...TD obviously and maybe a TS

[Rgv20]

Looks like Recon is schedule for tomorrow

2. SUSPECT AREA (WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE - NOAA 42
A. 03/2100Z
B. NOAA2 01BBA INVEST
C. 03/1830Z
D. 22.5N 95.0W
E. 03/2030Z TO 04/0100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000


Looks like the short term motion should be WSW.

[SoupBone]

Looks like Recon is schedule for tomorrow

2. SUSPECT AREA (WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE - NOAA 42
A. 03/2100Z
B. NOAA2 01BBA INVEST
C. 03/1830Z
D. 22.5N 95.0W
E. 03/2030Z TO 04/0100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000


Looks like the short term motion should be WSW.

https://i.imgur.com/D6M9RoY.gif

But why?

[Nimbus]

The upper level flow is into Mexico so this TD won't have much time to get named.
Texas could use the rain but Florida needs a digging trough.

[Buck]

Looks like Recon is schedule for tomorrow

2. SUSPECT AREA (WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE - NOAA 42
A. 03/2100Z
B. NOAA2 01BBA INVEST
C. 03/1830Z
D. 22.5N 95.0W
E. 03/2030Z TO 04/0100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000


Looks like the short term motion should be WSW.

https://i.imgur.com/D6M9RoY.gif

But why?

[mpic]

Glad to finally see a thread on this. Hope we all somehow get some much needed moisture, but Houston mets are not being too encouraging.

[La Sirena]

And of course with Louisiana being between the two systems we have nothing in our forecast for the next week but subsidence, dry northerly flow, and late summer heat. Highs in the upper 90’s forecast through Sunday

I’m with ya on that....we’re supposed to hit 99 on Thursday here in Southeast Alabama. Just ready for a heat and humidity break! Now back to my regularly scheduled invest stalking lol.

[lrak]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Sep 2 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Dorian, located near Grand Bahama Island.


An extensive area of showers and thunderstorms continues in
association with an area of low pressure located over the
south-central Gulf of Mexico. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form during the next few days while the low moves
slowly westward or west-southwestward toward the coast of Mexico.
Interests along the northeast coast of Mexico should monitor the
progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[lrak]

Looks like something is forming about 300 miles SE of Brownsville.

[Astromanía]

Bring the rain!