ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

[Abdullah]

If this develops into a strong storm early, would this decrease the chances of the storms after this one for survival as it upwells most of the water? Or will it simply take 1 day for the water to get back to previous ocean heat content levels?

Also, what's a "Mandarin" alert?

[AutoPenalti]

If this develops into a strong storm early, would this decrease the chances of the storms after this one for survival as it upwells most of the water? Or will it simply take 1 day for the water to get back to previous ocean heat content levels?

Also, what's a "Mandarin" alert?

Mandarin is the color, which indicates there’s a 30-60% chance of tropical development in the next few days.

Lemon = Code Yellow 0-20% chance of development
Mandarin = Code Orange 30-60% chance of development
Cherry/Tomato = Code Red 70-100% chance of development

[AtlanticWind]

They may go up to 70 percent at 8pm

[USTropics]

So mostly a lurker since 2008 right before Ike, but I wonder how much climatology the models incorporate in to their algorithms that might say we are almost past the peak CV season and that is why they don't develop as many? It also seems to me we are getting these systems develop later than the norm and becoming much stronger that the norm has to do with simple climate change and the oceans have gotten warmer and are staying warmer much longer.

Models like the ECMWF, GFDL, UKMET, CMC, etc. are global dynamical models. They process real-time, observable data using differential equations and complex calculus problems (most use 4D-VAR data assimilation) to forecast the physics and motion of the atmosphere at various levels of resolution. Statistical/climate models would account for climo, but not dynamic models.

This article touches on the important factors: http://mpe.dimacs.rutgers.edu/2013/12/1 ... teorology/

[USTropics]

If this develops into a strong storm early, would this decrease the chances of the storms after this one for survival as it upwells most of the water? Or will it simply take 1 day for the water to get back to previous ocean heat content levels?

Also, what's a "Mandarin" alert?

If it develops into a strong system and slows down considerably, it could cause a cold wake. Most of the time it's marginal, but if you get numerous systems over the same area in a brief amount of time, it could cause a pronounceable upwell trail.

[smithtim]

Looking good.

https://i.imgur.com/riJ9veF.jpg

Thanks for sharing... that looks very healthy for that far out, definitely gonna keep a very close eye on it!!!

[Michele B]

So mostly a lurker since 2008 right before Ike, but I wonder how much climatology the models incorporate in to their algorithms that might say we are almost past the peak CV season and that is why they don't develop as many? It also seems to me we are getting these systems develop later than the norm and becoming much stronger that the norm has to do with simple climate change and the oceans have gotten warmer and are staying warmer much longer.

I think several mets on twc and other places said the reason for the lateness of the season - or actually LACK of tc development - was the presence of lots of dry air from Africa that was in the air between Africa and N. America.

[Michele B]

There’s just something odd about this invest...

Everyone at my job, who don’t even track these things let alone care, are so focused on this wave coming off of Africa threatening Florida, even though it’s ways off...

A lot of my friends on social media are saying things like “This is the one that will hit Florida”, “This is the one that will hit the US east coast”.

It’s getting a lot of hype that’s for sure...

I know I've been reading for a couple weeks now that THIS IS THE ONE that was/is going to be "the one" to hurt us. I have no idea why or how anyone could know that - before the storm was even a gleam in the Atlantic Ocean's eye!

[cycloneye]

A broad area of low pressure along a tropical wave located near the
Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is possible, and a
tropical depression could form while it moves westward across the
tropical Atlantic Ocean through early next week. Enhanced rainfall
is possible across the Cabo Verde Islands through early Friday as
the disturbance moves through the region.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[Blown Away]

Looks like a possible NE Caribbean issue next week...

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1169767233784094720

[Patrick99]

So mostly a lurker since 2008 right before Ike, but I wonder how much climatology the models incorporate in to their algorithms that might say we are almost past the peak CV season and that is why they don't develop as many? It also seems to me we are getting these systems develop later than the norm and becoming much stronger that the norm has to do with simple climate change and the oceans have gotten warmer and are staying warmer much longer.

I think several mets on twc and other places said the reason for the lateness of the season - or actually LACK of tc development - was the presence of lots of dry air from Africa that was in the air between Africa and N. America.

Sometimes that dry air tamps these systems down just enough without killing them off completely, then by the time they finally get going, too late to turn away. Not that quick developing systems are locks for recurve of course....Donna, Irma, Georges and 1928 would like to have a word!

[cycloneye]

AL, 94, 2019090600, , BEST, 0, 146N, 233W, 20, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 180, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M

[Abdullah]

If this develops into a strong storm early, would this decrease the chances of the storms after this one for survival as it upwells most of the water? Or will it simply take 1 day for the water to get back to previous ocean heat content levels?

Also, what's a "Mandarin" alert?

Mandarin is the color, which indicates there’s a 30-60% chance of tropical development in the next few days.

Lemon = Code Yellow 0-20% chance of development
Mandarin = Code Orange 30-60% chance of development
Cherry/Tomato = Code Red 70-100% chance of development

First of all, Thank you for the explanation.

I've never thought of it as anything except Yellow-Orange-Red. Is this official NHC terminology or is it just used on forums? Also, it's been mandarin for a while. It was 0/60 - 0/50 -10/50, now 20/60. In all of these cases, we've got Yellow for the 2-day outlook and Mandarin for the 5-day? Why is it only now a mandarin?

[Abdullah]

If this develops into a strong storm early, would this decrease the chances of the storms after this one for survival as it upwells most of the water? Or will it simply take 1 day for the water to get back to previous ocean heat content levels?

Also, what's a "Mandarin" alert?

If it develops into a strong system and slows down considerably, it could cause a cold wake. Most of the time it's marginal, but if you get numerous systems over the same area in a brief amount of time, it could cause a pronounceable upwell trail.

Thank you for the answer!

[GeneratorPower]

If this develops into a strong storm early, would this decrease the chances of the storms after this one for survival as it upwells most of the water? Or will it simply take 1 day for the water to get back to previous ocean heat content levels?

Also, what's a "Mandarin" alert?

Mandarin is the color, which indicates there’s a 30-60% chance of tropical development in the next few days.

Lemon = Code Yellow 0-20% chance of development
Mandarin = Code Orange 30-60% chance of development
Cherry/Tomato = Code Red 70-100% chance of development

First of all, Thank you for the explanation.

I've never thought of it as anything except Yellow-Orange-Red. Is this official NHC terminology or is it just used on forums? Also, it's been mandarin for a while. It was 0/60 - 0/50 -10/50, now 20/60. In all of these cases, we've got Yellow for the 2-day outlook and Mandarin for the 5-day? Why is it only now a mandarin?

The fruit and vegetable names are just a weather forum thing and just for fun. First time I saw it was on another board, from Josh Morgerman. Never see him on forums anymore. Not sure if he made it up but is sounds like him.

[Bigwhitey]

Long time to watch. At least ten days from any stateside impacts

[StruThiO]

K, personally I don't really care whether or not the latest ecmwf run shows development or not. It's a low riding westward moving tropical wave in early September. Model guidance seems to be off this year with cyclogenesis anyways. Dorian was quite a whiff.

[wx98]

Well here we go again. What does this *possible* future Humberto have in store a week or two down the line...

[Hurricaneman]

Well here we go again. What does this *possible* future Humberto have in store a week or two down the line...

We’ll know early next week especially for the Lesser Antilles but after that is like reading tea leaves we won’t know until sometime near next weekend