ATL: HUMBERTO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[StruThiO]

5,4,3,2,1

Impressive

[robbielyn]

I have been saying all along that this is an area that tropical systems that have come through this area have organized more than the models have shown. I will not be surprised at all it 95L becomes a strong TS if not a weak Cat 1 before coming across FL.

Com'on where's wxman57 to throw cold water on development now...we need you buddy!

Yes please put a cabash on this system.

[p1nheadlarry]

I have been saying all along that this is an area that tropical systems that have come through this area have organized more than the models have shown. I will not be surprised at all it 95L becomes a strong TS if not a weak Cat 1 before coming across FL.

Agreed. With 72 hours of water ahead.. plenty of time.

Not the same situation ... but the famous Labor Day Hurricane in the middle Keys, was still just a Tropical Storm at 77W. It went from TS to Cat 5 between 77W and 80W. Obviously, this won't be the same case, but just to show, this area doesn't need much to get going a bit.

One of many storms I wish we'd have had satellites up to see at the time.

[Frank2]

I'm sure the NHC can't help thinking about Katrina, 14 years ago:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane ... _track.png

[boca]

It looks like the system is being pulled north or NE on satellite and I’m pretty sure it is from the shear from the ULL but could the icon be correct on the track?

[Steve]

I’d agree a little with Kyle on this one. I’m not known as a **** caster or down caster because I want to try to look at things as unbiased as possible. The question was whether there was a chance it gets significantly stronger than “we think” <— not entirely sure how to interpret the last part. There’s always the chance. It’s September, and certainly some of the conditions are ripe. So yes, there is a chance albeit a pretty small one that it would organize into something significant in +/- 3 days. Could be classified, but unless it tracked way more east or way slower, I don’t see that much. I think you have to be realistic about the possibilities that exist and plan accordingly. I’d be getting my provisions and gas probably today just in case. But you also have to be realistic about the setup and what’s actually going on. There are enough mitigating and complicating circumstances that it’s not likely to “take off like a rocket” or anything by the weekend. Gun to head prediction would be 5-10% shot at a hurricane, maybe 20% decent TS and probably 50%TD/minor TS. After that, if it was back over water you could maybe make an argument that a harder hit for the Panhandle or coming north in the WATL would have a higher possibility.

Again though, if it was to be 24-30 hours slower, I would up my possibilities accordingly.

[TallyTracker]

Based on wxman57’s thoughts, this could be like Ernesto 2006. It rode north up the entire peninsula as a weak tropical storm before intensifying some near the Carolinas.

[toad strangler]

I have been saying all along that this is an area that tropical systems that have come through this area have organized more than the models have shown. I will not be surprised at all it 95L becomes a strong TS if not a weak Cat 1 before coming across FL.

Com'on where's wxman57 to throw cold water on development now...we need you buddy!

All the cold water in his arsenal didn’t effect Dorian one bit. Might be the first time I’ve witnessed a K from him. At least I know he’s human now lol

[Aric Dunn]

Just the right sun angle.

Possibly another Vort. but either way means there is a broad closed wind field with vorts rotating around.

Once the convection over land collapses again over the next few hours should see the convergence increase again in this area where this vort is at.. by morning we could be looking at developing TD/TS

[psyclone]

Weak and right seems most likely with this system but we need to watch it carefully due to location and calendar. Here's to hoping we get a heat breaking, breezy "fun system" with some squalls and fast moving showers.

[robbielyn]

Weak and right seems most likely with this system but we need to watch it carefully due to location and calendar. Here's to hoping we get a heat breaking, breezy "fun system" with some squalls and fast moving showers.

Sure...on the east coast of fl. beaching st pete next week don’t want no rip currents or beach erosion or downpours.

[northjaxpro]

Weak and right seems most likely with this system but we need to watch it carefully due to location and calendar. Here's to hoping we get a heat breaking, breezy "fun system" with some squalls and fast moving showers.

Yeah Psyclone I hope you are right about your description. Do not need any any severe impacts here or anywhere across the region, and especially The Bahamas right now God forbid!!

[StruThiO]

Widespread cloudiness and showers extending from the southeastern
Bahamas northward over the southwestern Atlantic for a few hundred
miles are associated with a sharp trough of low pressure. Although
limited development of this system is anticipated tonight and
Thursday, conditions are forecast to become a little more conducive
for tropical cyclone formation over the weekend, and a tropical
depression is likely to form as the system moves slowly toward the
west-northwest across the Florida Straits and southeastern Florida,
and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This disturbance will likely
produce periods of locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds across the
Bahamas through Friday, and across Florida during the weekend. An
Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the system Thursday afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[psyclone]

There's our code red. We usually get there a dime at a time. Classic peak season vs shear tug of war favors eventual development

[Stormcenter]

It sure looks like the NHC is not buying the EURO and
ICON runs so far with WNW hook.

[Stormcenter]

It sure looks like the NHC is not buying the EURO and
ICON solutions so far with WNW hook.

[Cpv17]

It sure looks like the NHC is not buying the EURO and
ICON runs so far with WNW hook.

They have access to guidance that the public doesn’t have. I would stick with their word. They also mention this will go through the FL Straits and SEFL so that’s also farther south than the models indicate.

[wxman57]

It sure looks like the NHC is not buying the EURO and
ICON runs so far with WNW hook.

They have access to guidance that the public doesn’t have. I would stick with their word. They also mention this will go through the FL Straits and SEFL so that’s also farther south than the models indicate.

I believe that the only model that the NHC forecasters have that we don't is the FSU Superensemble.

[jlauderdal]

There's our code red. We usually get there a dime at a time. Classic peak season vs shear tug of war favors eventual development

Yesterday it was mandarin and in the eastern gulf only, quite a change in 24 hours

[ronjon]

It sure looks like the NHC is not buying the EURO and
ICON runs so far with WNW hook.

I believe the NHC is looking at that big ole 500 mb thumb ridge over the SE US in their assumption of a W-NW track.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=watl&pkg=z500aMean&runtime=2019091112&fh=120