ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

[caneman]

Models are struggling mightily with this pattern this year. In all my years of watching storms, I dont recall such huge swings in storm runs. Looks like early on type Dorian swings.

[AFWeather]

Some interesting verbiage in the Mobile AFD this morning... sounds like NHC and multiple offices are more or less discounting the 00Z Euro! I wouldn’t expect the NHC “cone” (it’s really not a cone yet) to shift East just yet.

“Some guidance (GFS and its ensembles) is advertising the
ridge shifting eastward to off the East Coast as 95L pivots
cyclonically around the periphery of an upper an MCV over the central Gulf of Mexico. The latest ECMWF, on the other hand, has trended east with its path, moving 95L slowly north along the east coast of Florida into a developing upper trough in the upper ridge (and more in line with the path of the UKMet). This is a significant eastward shift in the ECMWF, and with consensus with neighboring offices, has resulted in a decrease in the influence of the ECMWF in the current forecast package. The latest (1 AM CDT) update from the National Hurricane Center is also leaning this direction, with 95L moving into the eastern Gulf and having a 70% chance of becoming a tropical system in the next 5 days.”

[jlauderdal]

Some interesting verbiage in the Mobile AFD this morning... sounds like NHC and multiple offices are more or less discounting the 00Z Euro! I wouldn’t expect the NHC “cone” (it’s really not a cone yet) to shift East just yet.

“Some guidance (GFS and its ensembles) is advertising the
ridge shifting eastward to off the East Coast as 95L pivots
cyclonically around the periphery of an upper an MCV over the central Gulf of Mexico. The latest ECMWF, on the other hand, has trended east with its path, moving 95L slowly north along the east coast of Florida into a developing upper trough in the upper ridge (and more in line with the path of the UKMet). This is a significant eastward shift in the ECMWF, and with consensus with neighboring offices, has resulted in a decrease in the influence of the ECMWF in the current forecast package. The latest (1 AM CDT) update from the National Hurricane Center is also leaning this direction, with 95L moving into the eastern Gulf and having a 70% chance of becoming a tropical system in the next 5 days.”

melbourne nws wasnt biting on the euro either---" WILL LEAN AT THIS TIME TOWARD A BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM
AND YESTERDAYS 12Z ECMWF WHICH INDICATES A A MORE PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION WITH WESTERLY MOTION WITH THE WAVE AXIS, WEST OF EAST
CENTRAL FL."

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1172090111883907075

[NDG]

The Euro 0z ensembles, anything is possible at this point.

[xironman]

melbourne nws wasnt biting on the euro either---" WILL LEAN AT THIS TIME TOWARD A BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM
AND YESTERDAYS 12Z ECMWF WHICH INDICATES A A MORE PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION WITH WESTERLY MOTION WITH THE WAVE AXIS, WEST OF EAST
CENTRAL FL."

Wan't that the more westerly 12z as opposed to the big shift in the 0z?

[HurricaneFrances04]

They may be waiting to see where formation actually occurs before latching on to a new solution.

[Jr0d]

Maybe the ICON is onto something with splitting it in two...one piece goes to the Gulf, the other rides up the East Coast.

[AdamFirst]

06z HWRF sends a 50kt TS into Palm Beach County early Saturday morning (hr51)

[rbaker55]

another huge shift with the euro in 12 hrs? This looks like Dorian all over again except starting in the atlantic instead of the caribbean

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Maybe the ICON is onto something with splitting it in two...one piece goes to the Gulf, the other rides up the East Coast.

Icon leaves me a bagholders.....EVERYTIME

Terrible model. Imo

[ROCK]

Eh the Euro run was too huge a shift for me. Not that I haven’t seen this before from it unless it accounting for center relos. still getting some SW shear from the ULL moving off FL

What’s the saying? “one model run a trend it does not make”

[tropicwatch]

The 0600 TVCN has also shifted east.

[Dean4Storms]

When a model makes this big a shift you must wait for another run or two before taking it seriously.

[NDG]

06z HWRF sends a 50kt TS into Palm Beach County early Saturday morning (hr51)

Fairly similar solution to the latest Euro solution but faster of formation or reformation further north and tracking through the Abaco Islands, something they don't need, not even a weak system.

[NDG]

Eh the Euro run was too huge a shift for me. Not that I haven’t seen this before from it unless it accounting for center relos. still getting some SW shear from the ULL moving off FL

What’s the saying? “one model run a trend it does not make”

Is not just the Euro, is also the UKMET and ICON.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Well with this mornings GFS and EURO disagreement it looks like 3 days of "Now casting".

[northjaxpro]

The 0600 TVCN has also shifted east.

This from the TVCN is very telling and critical for yours truly!!

[Hypercane_Kyle]

So we've gone from a weak TS into Florida by 120 hours to a potential strengthening hurricane up the east coast by that time.

I hate this hurricane season. I don't think I've ever seen the models struggle this much with trofs.

[boca]

If this were to hit Florida it looks like more of central or north Florida system than South Florida in my opinion.