ATL: JERRY - Models

[Aric Dunn]

18z Euro shifts back south some. maybe a little bend at 90hurs. otherwise no recurve yet.

[floridasun78]

18z Euro shifts back south some. maybe a little bend at 90hurs. otherwise no recurve yet.

https://i.ibb.co/cNPD4y1/6.gif

how can make it better look bit small

[sma10]

18z Euro shifts back south some. maybe a little bend at 90hurs. otherwise no recurve yet.

https://i.ibb.co/cNPD4y1/6.gif

Kind of difficult to see, but if that 90hr position is right next to the SE Bahamas, thats a pretty good shift from 12z

[CreponChris]

12Z ECMWF and GEFS combined, but colored by intensity. I had to put a crude block over the guidance for Humberto [sorry, lol]


ECMWF 12z (1809) Probabilistic


ECMWF TC 00 and 12Z trend


G[E]FS Trend going back six runs rather than just two.

G'night all thanks for the interesting posts.

[SFLcane]

18z Euro shifts back south some. maybe a little bend at 90hurs. otherwise no recurve yet.

https://i.ibb.co/cNPD4y1/6.gif

Operational will probably shift back north later tonight. All 18z EPS recurve away from FL.

[GeneratorPower]

Pretty clear model agreement. If Jerry were to ultimately track into the USA mainland it would be preceded by a wholesale pattern change and flip flop on the models. I’m sure that’s still possible at these lead times but it happens so rarely anymore with the major global models.

[LarryWx]

Interestingly, the 18Z Euro ens 144, the end of the short 18Z, is actually quite a bit more active in the SW sector than the relatively quiet 12Z’s 150. The problem with this 18Z run, however, is that it doesn’t go out far enough to see how many of those SW members actually hit the CONUS. I suspect though that there’d be a good number more than the handful that are on the 12Z.

[LarryWx]

18z Euro shifts back south some. maybe a little bend at 90hurs. otherwise no recurve yet.

https://i.ibb.co/cNPD4y1/6.gif

Operational will probably shift back north later tonight. All 18z EPS recurve away from FL.

I don’t see what you’re seeing because the 18Z EPS goes out only to 144, which is too soon to be able to tell the final outcome of the increased number of SW members, some of which were moving NW toward FL at that time.

[sma10]

Interestingly, the 18Z Euro ens 144, the end of the short 18Z, is actually quite a bit more active in the SW sector than the relatively quiet 12Z’s 150. The problem with this 18Z run, however, is that it doesn’t go out far enough to see how many of those SW members actually hit the CONUS. I suspect though that there’d be a good number more than the handful that are on the 12Z.

Interesting, however the message two posts above yours confirms that all 18z EPS members safely recurve away

Edit: Larry is on the case

[LarryWx]

Interestingly, the 18Z Euro ens 144, the end of the short 18Z, is actually quite a bit more active in the SW sector than the relatively quiet 12Z’s 150. The problem with this 18Z run, however, is that it doesn’t go out far enough to see how many of those SW members actually hit the CONUS. I suspect though that there’d be a good number more than the handful that are on the 12Z.

Interesting, however the message two posts above yours confirms that all 18z EPS members safely recurve away

Edit: Larry is on the case

Yeah, no recent EPS run had a single member hit that soon. The 0Z EPS will be more informative.

[LarryWx]

0Z UKMET: west of last 2 runs but still a recurve


TROPICAL STORM JERRY ANALYSED POSITION : 15.5N 51.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 19.09.2019 0 15.5N 51.2W 1005 28
1200UTC 19.09.2019 12 16.4N 54.2W 1002 37
0000UTC 20.09.2019 24 17.3N 56.9W 1000 47
1200UTC 20.09.2019 36 18.0N 59.6W 1000 47
0000UTC 21.09.2019 48 19.2N 62.3W 1000 48
1200UTC 21.09.2019 60 20.3N 65.1W 1003 46
0000UTC 22.09.2019 72 21.7N 67.0W 1000 44
1200UTC 22.09.2019 84 22.9N 68.7W 998 47
0000UTC 23.09.2019 96 24.0N 69.6W 990 52
1200UTC 23.09.2019 108 25.2N 69.3W 981 55
0000UTC 24.09.2019 120 27.3N 67.9W 965 70
1200UTC 24.09.2019 132 29.7N 67.6W 961 70
0000UTC 25.09.2019 144 32.1N 66.4W 952 81

[chris_fit]

00Z EPS....

The "E" members go slightly more E - The "W" members go way more W

[SouthernBreeze]

looking like it's all going to hinge on strength. Getting close to Cat1 now, will be interesting to see which scenario plays out

[SFLcane]

In terms of the Euro/EPS it looks like they're still about 5 members that do a western solution but it seems pretty unlikely at this point.

[Dean4Storms]

12Z EPS....

The "E" members go slightly more E - The "W" members go way more W

https://i.imgur.com/dMrcKeP.png

That's the 00z run of today........ Most of the weaker members recurve and the stronger stay west. Interesting.

[toad strangler]

12Z EPS....

The "E" members go slightly more E - The "W" members go way more W

https://i.imgur.com/dMrcKeP.png

That's the 00z run of today........ Most of the weaker members recurve and the stronger stay west. Interesting.

It makes no sense for a stronger system to track further W since they always want to move poleward unless under a strong ridge. I haven't looked at these ensembles so I can only assume the west bending solutions all show a stout ridge above Jerry and the weaker solutions must have significant weakness.

[SouthDadeFish]

The western solution is looking increasingly unlikely. There appears to be too much shear in the path of the storm and the weakness seems sufficiently pronounced to facilitate a recurvature.

[caneman]

I'm not buying any of it right now. Models have struggled mightily this far out this year. Given that, I wouldn't bet even a penny on the OTS solution. I'd bet far more on a dart board throw though

[Emmett_Brown]

Per 6Z GFS, if Jerry takes stays a bit more S, then the shear will be less... because a big 200mb high is going to be parked over the Greater Antilles which would lessen shear and enhance outflow. Also, a stronger and deeper Jerry would go more W because steering currents above the 500 mb level are more E to W. A lot depends on how strong he gets today, and whether he tracks on the S side of the guidance envelop. Most tracks show a weaker Jerry getting pulled into the shear zone by the lower level steering weakness. That's why the few stronger Jerrys on the Euro ensemble head more W. So, Jerry's strength could affect his steering in a way counter intuitive to what we usually see. Most models so far assume a weaker storm.

[AutoPenalti]

I honestly thought these were the slower solutions which is why I thought Jerry would miss the connection with the trough, now with that 250mb ridge in place I’m sort of concerned for the Bahamas.