ATL: JERRY - Models

[Dean4Storms]

12Z EPS....

The "E" members go slightly more E - The "W" members go way more W

https://i.imgur.com/dMrcKeP.png

That's the 00z run of today........ Most of the weaker members recurve and the stronger stay west. Interesting.

It makes no sense for a stronger system to track further W since they always want to move poleward unless under a strong ridge. I haven't looked at these ensembles so I can only assume the west bending solutions all show a stout ridge above Jerry and the weaker solutions must have significant weakness.

You maybe forgetting that a stronger system is steered more by the 500mb level compared to sheared weaker system which usually move with the lower level flow.

[toad strangler]

That's the 00z run of today........ Most of the weaker members recurve and the stronger stay west. Interesting.

It makes no sense for a stronger system to track further W since they always want to move poleward unless under a strong ridge. I haven't looked at these ensembles so I can only assume the west bending solutions all show a stout ridge above Jerry and the weaker solutions must have significant weakness.

You maybe forgetting that a stronger system is steered more by the 500mb level compared to sheared weaker system which usually move with the lower level flow.

Right, and that's why you would expect the weaker storm to move more W. Not the stronger storm. But like I said, I haven't reviewed the ensembles. It just seems backwards to me.

[Nuno]

The western solution is looking increasingly unlikely. There appears to be too much shear in the path of the storm and the weakness seems sufficiently pronounced to facilitate a recurvature.

Agreed. I can see Jerry potentially tracking more westwards and even tracking quite closely to the islands but I just can't see how it'll escape the weakness left by Humberto.

[GrayLancer18]

The western solution is looking increasingly unlikely. There appears to be too much shear in the path of the storm and the weakness seems sufficiently pronounced to facilitate a recurvature.

At this point it seems a 98% chance the recurve will happen unless Jerry goes through the mother of all RI to a major and drops south before the shear.

[chris_fit]

06Z EPS

[LarryWx]

06Z EPS

https://i.imgur.com/QaNK3xB.png

As this shows, only ~6 of the 51 (12%) 6Z EPS members are at hour 144 in a position based on movement then to be a CONUS threat (mainly FL/Gulf). The 0Z had about the same number actually hit the CONUS, all FL/Gulf. For now, I’m sticking with 90% chance of no CONUS threat.

[Hurricaneman]

06Z EPS

https://i.imgur.com/QaNK3xB.png

As this shows, only ~6 of the 51 (12%) 6Z EPS members are at hour 144 in a position based on movement then to be a CONUS threat (mainly FL/Gulf). The 0Z had about the same number actually hit the CONUS, all FL/Gulf. For now, I’m sticking with 90% chance of no CONUS threat.

Oops, I think you meant 10%

[sma10]

06Z EPS

https://i.imgur.com/QaNK3xB.png

As this shows, only ~6 of the 51 (12%) 6Z EPS members are at hour 144 in a position based on movement then to be a CONUS threat (mainly FL/Gulf). The 0Z had about the same number actually hit the CONUS, all FL/Gulf. For now, I’m sticking with 90% chance of no CONUS threat.

I'm in agreement, maybe Jerry continues a bit more WNW than before, but the system is going to turn. But ... am I the only one who is bothered about how consistently these global models get initialized too weak? The ICON for example shows that right now Jerry should be 1008 mb - and he is actually 988mb. C'mon ...

[sma10]

And speaking of ICON .. maybe an outlier, but way, way West at 12Z.

By my rough estimate, the Monday morning position in the 6Z run was 27.1, 68.1 --- the 12Z run now shows 23.7, 74.0

Quite a move in one run. We'll see ...

[chris_fit]

And speaking of ICON .. maybe an outlier, but way, way West at 12Z.

By my rough estimate, the Monday morning position in the 6Z run was 27.1, 68.1 --- the 12Z run now shows 23.7, 74.0

Quite a move in one run. We'll see ...

Icon Trend...

[sma10]

And speaking of ICON .. maybe an outlier, but way, way West at 12Z.

By my rough estimate, the Monday morning position in the 6Z run was 27.1, 68.1 --- the 12Z run now shows 23.7, 74.0

Quite a move in one run. We'll see ...

Icon Trend...

https://i.imgur.com/gXXGsfp.gif

Also keep in mind one additional tidbit about the 12Z ICON track: at NO point in the entire track, does the model show Jerry any stronger than 1006mb, even from the outset. I have no idea if that bears any significance but thought it was worth mentioning. I guess we need to see the big three now.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Honestly, the ICON showing a more western track just gives me more faith a track OTS is likely and, if we're lucky, Bermuda might also be able to avoid this one. I wouldn't be surprised if the NAVGEM has outperformed the ICON in terms of track.

[caneman]

Honestly, the ICON showing a more western track just gives me more faith a track OTS is likely and, if we're lucky, Bermuda might also be able to avoid this one. I wouldn't be surprised if the NAVGEM has outperformed the ICON in terms of track.

I wouldn't say that. I was a big ICON naysayer but if memory serves me correct, it sniffed out Dorian and Humberto eventual tracks earlier on than any of the other models.

[crm6360]

Honestly, the ICON showing a more western track just gives me more faith a track OTS is likely and, if we're lucky, Bermuda might also be able to avoid this one. I wouldn't be surprised if the NAVGEM has outperformed the ICON in terms of track.

I wouldn't say that. I was a big ICON naysayer but if memory serves me correct, it sniffed out Dorian and Humberto eventual tracks earlier on than any of the other models.

icon is sniffing deuces, that's about it.

[hohnywx]

Honestly, the ICON showing a more western track just gives me more faith a track OTS is likely and, if we're lucky, Bermuda might also be able to avoid this one. I wouldn't be surprised if the NAVGEM has outperformed the ICON in terms of track.

I wouldn't say that. I was a big ICON naysayer but if memory serves me correct, it sniffed out Dorian and Humberto eventual tracks earlier on than any of the other models.

ICON was just about the last model to abandon Miami-Dade as a landfall location for Dorian.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Honestly, the ICON showing a more western track just gives me more faith a track OTS is likely and, if we're lucky, Bermuda might also be able to avoid this one. I wouldn't be surprised if the NAVGEM has outperformed the ICON in terms of track.

I wouldn't say that. I was a big ICON naysayer but if memory serves me correct, it sniffed out Dorian and Humberto eventual tracks earlier on than any of the other models.

ICON was just about the last model to abandon Miami-Dade as a landfall location for Dorian.

it was also one of the first to sniff out the shifts north of P.R too. Honestly, the miami idea wasn’t absolutely horrible. If the storm came only a day earlier than it did, the conditions were prime for a Florida landfall. It was well within the respectable margin of error.

[Aric Dunn]

Honestly, the ICON showing a more western track just gives me more faith a track OTS is likely and, if we're lucky, Bermuda might also be able to avoid this one. I wouldn't be surprised if the NAVGEM has outperformed the ICON in terms of track.

I wouldn't say that. I was a big ICON naysayer but if memory serves me correct, it sniffed out Dorian and Humberto eventual tracks earlier on than any of the other models.

ICON was just about the last model to abandon Miami-Dade as a landfall location for Dorian.

It was also the first to sniff out the right of PR track and the hard left towards the Bahamas.. so yeah..

[Nimbus]

There is an upper level low north of Jerry that looks as though it will move out.
The ICON must be seeing the subtropical ridge differently than the rest of the models steering Jerry into the Bahamas. Definitely steaming WNW at a good clip this afternoon.

[Aric Dunn]

There is an upper level low north of Jerry that looks as though it will move out.
The ICON must be seeing the subtropical ridge differently than the rest of the models steering Jerry into the Bahamas. Definitely steaming WNW at a good clip this afternoon.

Well i mentioned this yesterday. That models typically always under due how quickly ridging builds back in behind exiting TC. Happens alot

[CreponChris]

06Z EPS

https://i.imgur.com/QaNK3xB.png

As this shows, only ~6 of the 51 (12%) 6Z EPS members are at hour 144 in a position based on movement then to be a CONUS threat (mainly FL/Gulf). The 0Z had about the same number actually hit the CONUS, all FL/Gulf. For now, I’m sticking with 90% chance of no CONUS threat.

Oops, I think you meant 10%

I think that's the right way of putting it. He said 90% chance of it not hitting the continental US or 10% chance in other words of doing so