WPAC: WUTIP - Post-Tropical

[Hayabusa]

WDPN31 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 02W (WUTIP) WARNING NR
18//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 02W (WUTIP), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM
SOUTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. STY 02W HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED (30
KNOTS) OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS FROM 105 KNOTS TO THE CURRENT
INTENSITY OF 135 KNOTS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A COMPACT EYEWALL, APPROXIMATELY 110NM DIAMETER, WITH A 15NM
ROUND EYE AND A BANDING FEATURE. A 231159Z MHS 89GHZ IMAGE INDICATES
THAT THE CORE CONVECTION IS SEPARATED FROM THE DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING BY A MOAT, WHICH SUGGESTS AN IMMINENT EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
CYCLE MAY OCCUR (AS INDICATED IN THE UW-CIMSS M-PERC PRODUCT).
ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE, HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED
WITH THE NORTHERN SPIRAL RAINBANDS ADVECTING OVER GUAM, AND A WELL-
DEFINED EYEWALL, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE SPIRAL BANDS HAVE CONTINUED TO PRODUCE PERSISTENT
GALE-FORCE SURFACE WINDS OVER GUAM WITH GUSTS CLOSE TO 50 KNOTS.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 135 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE
OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T6.5 (127 KNOTS) TO T7.0
(140 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH LOW TO
MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
OFFSET BY A ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND GOOD EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. SST VALUES HAVE DECREASED TO 27C BUT REMAIN FAVORABLE. STY
02W IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST
DUE TO THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION PHASE. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING
MESSAGE.
B. STY 02W SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH TAU 72. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PHASE OF THE
FORECAST WITH A 100NM SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72. IN
GENERAL, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST,
HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN AT STY STRENGTH THROUGH
TAU 24 DUE TO THE STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. AFTER TAU 24, STY 02W
WILL WEAKEN STEADILY AS OUTFLOW WEAKENS.
C. AFTER TAU 72, INCREASING VWS (20 TO 40 KNOTS) AND CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.
THE WEAKENED SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF A STRONG LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AND NORTHEASTERLY
SURGE FORECAST TO BUILD SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF JAPAN. DUE TO THE
COMPLEX AND RAPIDLY-EVOLVING SYNOPTIC PATTERN, THERE IS INCREASING
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK WITH A 460NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT
TAU 120. THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE
JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST.//
NNNN

[TyphoonNara]

The W ring has broken, and the storm may have peaked. What a shame, considering it to be just 5 knots shy from cat 5 status (at least officially).

[TyphoonNara]

Wutip is such a wonderful system to chase though. Powerful, unusual, yet harmless. This is the type of storms we all want.

[Hayabusa]

TPPN10 PGTW 231505

A. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (WUTIP)

B. 23/1430Z

C. 12.12N

D. 142.54E

E. ONE/HMWRI8

F. T7.0/7.0/D1.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 05A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY W
YIELDS AN E# OF 6.0. ADDED 1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR W, TO YIELD A
DT OF 7.0.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
23/1159Z 12.03N 142.77E MMHS


MARTIN

[TheAustinMan]

Typhoon Wutip has certainly exceeded my expectations and has placed itself in the record books, certainly. Luckily it is distant enough from the Mariana Islands to keep the worst impacts away. Here's a look under the cloud tops from the SSMIS 85GHz microwave sensor at around 9z , showing what appears to be the beginnings of an eyewall replacement cycle around a tight and reflective eyewall.

4.5 MB. Source: Microwave data from Naval Research Laboratory. Infrared data from CIMSS Real Earth. Data composited and map generated in QGIS.

[NotoSans]

AMSU and SATCON are also at ~925mb/135kt so intensity estimates from agencies are pretty good this time.

[TyphoonNara]

Down to T6.5.

TPPN10 PGTW 231814

A. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (WUTIP)

B. 23/1740Z

C. 12.37N

D. 142.38E

E. ONE/HMWRI8

F. T6.5/7.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: W0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 05A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY LG
YIELDS AN E# OF 5.0. ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR W, TO YIELD A
DT OF 5.5. MET AND PT YIELD A 6.5. DBO PT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


BERMEA

[Hayabusa]

02W WUTIP
As of 18:00 UTC Feb 23, 2019:

Location: 12.4°N 142.4°E
Maximum Winds: 135 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 924 mb

[Hayabusa]

JTWC continues to expect a cat 5

[Hayabusa]

WDPN31 PGTW 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 02W (WUTIP) WARNING NR
19//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON 02W (WUTIP), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 142 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF NAVSTA GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED BUT ERODING EYEWALL, PARTICULARLY ON
THE WESTERN SIDE, AS WELL AS WARMING CLOUD TOPS AND A COOLING EYE. A
231431Z GMI 89GHZ IMAGE REVEALS WHAT APPEARS TO BE DOUBLE EYEWALLS,
AND IT IS SUSPECTED THAT STY 02W IS UNDERGOING AN EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON RADAR
IMAGERY AND THE EYE IN EIR IMAGERY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. AFTER
RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING FOR A 24-HOUR PERIOD, STY 02W HAS MAINTAINED
THE 135-KT INTENSITY WHILE IT UNDERGOES THE ERC. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BETWEEN THE RANGE OF MULTIAGENCY DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM T6.5 (127 KTS) TO T7.0 (140 KTS), AND
AGREES WITH A 241604Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 136 KTS. OBSERVATIONS FROM
ANDERSEN AFB ON GUAM SHOW WINDS HAVE SLACKENED, WITH GUSTS BETWEEN
30-40 KTS AS CONVECTIVE RAINBANDS MOVE OVER THE AREA, AND SUSTAINED
WINDS WEAKENING FROM 28 KTS TO 22 KTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. UPPER-
LEVEL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20
KNOTS) SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY A ROBUST
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. SST VALUES
HAVE DECREASED TO 27C BUT REMAIN FAVORABLE. STY 02W IS TRACKING
NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. STY 02W SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH TAU 72. AFTER TAU 24, THE STR WILL ERODE SOMEWHAT,
ALLOWING FOR A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIR AGREEMENT IN THE NEAR-TERM, WITH A 168NM SPREAD IN THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72. THE GALWEM AND UKMET MODEL SOLUTION ARE FURTHER
EAST AND SHOW A MORE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THAN DO THE OTHER
MODELS, WHILE ECMWF, HWRF, NAVGEM, AND GFS ARE IN LINE WITH OR
SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. IN GENERAL, THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST DUE TO MODEL DIFFICULTY
IN RESOLVING INTERNAL PROCESSES IN TROPICAL CYCLONES. HOWEVER, THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN AT STY STRENGTH THROUGH TAU 24 DUE TO
THE STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SLIGHT ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION TO
140 KTS IS POSSIBLE BY TAU 12 AFTER STY 02W COMPLETES THE ONGOING
ERC AND THE NEW PRIMARY EYEWALL CONTRACTS. AFTER TAU 24, STY 02W
WILL WEAKEN STEADILY AS OUTFLOW DIMINISHES.
C. AFTER TAU 72, INCREASING VWS (20 TO 40 KNOTS) AND CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.
THE WEAKENED SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF A STRONG LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AND NORTHEASTERLY
SURGE FORECAST TO BUILD SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF JAPAN. DUE TO THE
COMPLEX AND RAPIDLY EVOLVING SYNOPTIC PATTERN, THERE IS INCREASING
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK WITH A 485NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT
TAU 120. NAVGEM AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE ARE THE NORTHEASTERN OUTLIERS
AND SHOW A MORE PRONOUNCED KINK TO THE NORTH BEFORE TURNING THE
TRACK WESTWARD THAN DO THE OTHER MODELS AND THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS. NAVGEM MAINTAINS AN UNREALISTICALLY HIGH INTENSITY
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD DESPITE THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMING
UNFAVORABLE, THUS SUBJECTING ITS MODEL TRACKER TO STEERING
INFLUENCES DEEPER IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND ALLOWING THE MORE NORTHWARD
TRACK AT LATER TAUS. ECMWF, GFS, AND HWRF DIVERGE TO THE SOUTHWEST
OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, MORE REALISTICALLY REPRESENTING THE
INFLUENCE OF LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY SURGE ON A WEAKENED SYSTEM. STY
02W IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY IN LATER TAUS THAN PREVIOUSLY
DUE TO DRY, COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHEASTERLY COLD SURGE,
COOLER SSTS, AND THE LOSS OF FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE JTWC
FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

One last attempt for Cat 5?

[Kingarabian]

CDO needs to be thicker

[euro6208]

Super Typhoon Wutip Hits 155 mph: Strongest February Typhoon on Record

This makes Wutip the strongest Northwest Pacific typhoon ever observed in February, as well as the strongest tropical cyclone anywhere north of the equator in February.

The only stronger typhoon ever observed so early in the year was Super Typhoon Ophelia, which peaked as a Category 5 storm with 160 mph winds on January 13, 1958.

[1900hurricane]

Color me very skeptical that eyewall replacement completes successfully.

[doomhaMwx]

 https://twitter.com/UWCIMSS/status/1099401896111034368

[cycloneye]

Remains at 135 kts on 00z Best Track:

Location: 12.7°N 142.1°E
Maximum Winds: 135 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 924 mb

[TyphoonNara]

Wutip's eye has got cloudy in the last 12 hours, a telltale sign of undergoing an EWC.

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 240900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 02W (WUTIP) WARNING NR
21//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 02W (WUTIP), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 172 NM WEST OF
NAVSTA GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
ASYMMETRIC CORE CONVECTION SURROUNDING A 16NM EYE, WHICH SUPPORTS
THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. A 240545Z SSMI 85GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY
INTO A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WITH SHALLOW BANDING EXPOSED OVER THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLES DUE TO DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AS
INDICATED IN THE ANIMATED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 115 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 5.5/6.5 (102/115 KNOTS) FROM ALL AGENCIES AND A UW-
CIMSS SATCON ESTIMATE OF 110 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS REMAIN
FAVORABLE WITH LOW (5 TO 10 KNOTS) SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS), A ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND GOOD EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. SST VALUES REMAIN FAVORABLE AT 27C, ALTHOUGH OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT IS LOW. TY 02W IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. THROUGH TAU 36, TY 02W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-
LAYERED STR TOWARD A BREAK IN THE STR ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PROPAGATING TO THE NORTH. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DUE
TO DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. AFTER TAU 36, THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO SHIFT NORTHEAST ALLOWING AN EXTENSION OF THE LOW- TO MID-
LEVEL STR TO BUILD TO THE NORTH. CONSEQUENTLY, 02W WILL TURN WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AND ACCELERATE. MORE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
AS VWS INCREASES AND SST VALUES DECREASE SLIGHTLY TO 26C. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING OF THE TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
C. AFTER TAU 72, INCREASING VWS (OVER 30 KTS) AND CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL (200MB) WESTERLIES OVER THE
SYSTEM AS WELL AS DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHEAST
SURGE EVENT WILL SERVE TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM LEADING TO
DISSIPATION BY TAU 96. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOLE OUTLIER, GFS,
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT. OVERALL, THERE
IS LOW CONFIDENCE (HIGH UNCERTAINTY) IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE
TO THE RAPIDLY EVOLVING SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

 https://twitter.com/CIMSS_Satellite/status/1099389603272896513

[euro6208]

This is a good candidate for Cat 5 upgrade postseason. Dvorak and RAW T #'s had it.

Numbers and beautiness doesn't fit.