ATL: JERRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[abajan]

Could I have some of your best "guesstimates" on what kind of weather we should expect on St Maarten from Jerry?
Thank you

I would prepare for a hurricane just incase.

we are doing that. After Irma, we take no chances

My nephew is currently there, in St Martin, and his mom is quite worried. I assured her a couple days ago that the most you'll get is tropical storm force winds and possibly a few gusts to hurricane force, from a feederband or two. Even with the maximum sustained winds currently at 105 mph, I'm still of the same view. It's not a terribly large system and there's no real indication it'll turn more toward the west. Insofar as rain is concerned, hard to say, but I'm 99% certain it won't be anything nearly as severe as Imelda!

[abajan]

Satellite loop shows a bee line for Antigua and Barbuda if the present motion keeps up. Convection is really firing up at the same time.

It would be a heck of a thing if the CDO ended up impacting them (which I doubt), because they haven't issued even a tropical storm watch!

[StormTracker]

436
AXNT20 KNHC 201044
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
644 AM EDT Fri Sep 20 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1020 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Jerry is centered near 18.4N 58.7W at 20/0900 UTC or
250 nm E of the Northern Leeward Islands moving WNW at 14 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is within 150 nm of the center in the NW and SW
quadrant. Scattered moderate convection is within 300 nm of the NE
quadrant. A west-northwest to northwest motion at a decreasing
forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast
track, the center of Jerry will move north of the northern Leeward
Islands later today, pass well north of Puerto Rico on Saturday,
and be well east-northeast of the southeastern Bahamas on Sunday.
A gradual weakening trend is forecast to begin later today, but
Jerry is expected to remain a hurricane during the next few days.

[Ken711]

Hopefully Jerry misses Bermuda, but does anyone know when the last time a hurricane hit that island. I've always wondered how prepared they were and their building codes to withstand hurricane force winds.

[StormTracker]

436
AXNT20 KNHC 201044
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
644 AM EDT Fri Sep 20 2019

Hurricane Jerry will move to 19.1N 60.8W this afternoon, 20.4N
63.3W Saturday morning, 21.8N 65.4W Saturday afternoon, 23.2N
67.1W Sunday morning, and 26.1N 68.4W Monday morning. Jerry will
change little in intensity as it moves to near 29.4N 66.8W early
Tuesday, and continue N of the area to near the Wednesday.

We'll see how this all pans out...ST

[StormTracker]

Hopefully Jerry misses Bermuda, but does anyone know when the last time a hurricane hit that island. I've always wondered how prepared they were and their building codes to withstand hurricane force winds.

From what I'm told Bermuda is built like a fortress! Right now Antigua & Barbuda, and the Virgin Islands may be looking at a threat...ST

[NDG]

Too bad recon this morning is having communication problems, would had been interesting to see where its COC is this morning but early vis satellite loop may indicate that the eye is on the northern edge of the convection as clearly it is being affected by northerly UL shear.

[NDG]

Jerry is weaker this morning, only Cat 1 force winds found so far.

[wx98]

Too bad recon this morning is having communication problems, would had been interesting to see where its COC is this morning but early vis satellite loop may indicate that the eye is on the northern edge of the convection as clearly it is being affected by northerly UL shear.

Looks like they’ve been reporting just fine to me. A pass at 1040z put the center at about 18.5 N, 59.4 W. The pressure has weakened to 990 and winds support a mid-grade Cat 1

[NDG]

Based on the recons' fixes, during the past 11 hrs Jerry has been moving in an average heading of 284 degrees, not 290 degrees like the NHC mentions, at average of 17.7 mph.

[NDG]

Too bad recon this morning is having communication problems, would had been interesting to see where its COC is this morning but early vis satellite loop may indicate that the eye is on the northern edge of the convection as clearly it is being affected by northerly UL shear.

Looks like they’ve been reporting just fine to me. A pass at 1040z put the center at about 18.5 N, 59.4 W. The pressure has weakened to 990 and winds support a mid-grade Cat 1

The report just came in 10 minutes ago, for 30 minutes there was communications coming in. I guess they continued having problems so they just finished the mission and returning to base.

[chaser1]

Recent more westward jog sure must be keeping those in the V.I. & N. Leewards on the edge of their seats. Fortunately it looks like upper level shear is having it's way with Jerry at the moment. Let's see if we see a bit of a N.W. stair-step here shortly. Otherwise things could get a bit interesting - and quickly.

[TallyTracker]

Hopefully Jerry misses Bermuda, but does anyone know when the last time a hurricane hit that island. I've always wondered how prepared they were and their building codes to withstand hurricane force winds.

Bermuda just got slammed by Humberto with 100 mph winds with higher gusts two days ago. Sound like they weathered it well. Prior to that I believe it was Nicole 2016. Jerry hitting them would make it their second hurricane in a week.

[JahJa]

Hopefully Jerry misses Bermuda, but does anyone know when the last time a hurricane hit that island. I've always wondered how prepared they were and their building codes to withstand hurricane force winds.

Just weathered Humberto and the island is doing very well considering. Other minor roof damage, downs trees and some minor damage to the power infrastructure outside of the main city everything is business as usual. I've often said that if I had to face a major hurricane Bermuda would probably be the place to do so!

[JahJa]

Hopefully Jerry misses Bermuda, but does anyone know when the last time a hurricane hit that island. I've always wondered how prepared they were and their building codes to withstand hurricane force winds.

Bermuda just got slammed by Humberto with 100 mph winds with higher gusts two days ago. Sound like they weathered it well. Prior to that I believe it was Nicole 2016. Jerry hitting them would make it their second hurricane in a week.

We like hurricanes in twos I think......Fay and Gonzalo were a week apart as well!

[msbee]

I would prepare for a hurricane just incase.

we are doing that. After Irma, we take no chances

My nephew is currently there, in St Martin, and his mom is quite worried. I assured her a couple days ago that the most you'll get is tropical storm force winds and possibly a few gusts to hurricane force, from a feederband or two. Even with the maximum sustained winds currently at 105 mph, I'm still of the same view. It's not a terribly large system and there's no real indication it'll turn more toward the west. Insofar as rain is concerned, hard to say, but I'm 99% certain it won't be anything nearly as severe as Imelda!

Yes, everyone here is worried, understandably so. and we had a heavy thunderstorm early this morning which scared everyone. Right now we have sunshine and it is absolutely still.
I totally agree with your analysis. We all will be OK. If we get one of those feeder bands though, everyone needs to stay off the roads. Our roads flood quite easily.

[USVIKimmie]

Recent more westward jog sure must be keeping those in the V.I. & N. Leewards on the edge of their seats. Fortunately it looks like upper level shear is having it's way with Jerry at the moment. Let's see if we see a bit of a N.W. stair-step here shortly. Otherwise things could get a bit interesting - and quickly.

Based on the reported positions between 5 and 8, it went almost due West and only moved 8 miles.

Pucker factor 1000 here in the VI

[nativefloridian]

Recent more westward jog sure must be keeping those in the V.I. & N. Leewards on the edge of their seats. Fortunately it looks like upper level shear is having it's way with Jerry at the moment. Let's see if we see a bit of a N.W. stair-step here shortly. Otherwise things could get a bit interesting - and quickly.

Based on the reported positions between 5 and 8, it went almost due West and only moved 8 miles.

Pucker factor 1000 here in the VI

Agree on current direction. It appears Jerry only moved .1 degree north, yet moved .9 degrees west between 5am and 8am, if my calculations are correct.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[stormwatcher95]

Getting absolutely walloped by shear..looks like a small pocket of dry air to his NW is being shoved into the core as well

[abajan]

Hopefully Jerry misses Bermuda, but does anyone know when the last time a hurricane hit that island. I've always wondered how prepared they were and their building codes to withstand hurricane force winds.

One hit there less than a week ago!