ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

[AxaltaRacing24]

K, personally I don't really care whether or not the latest ecmwf run shows development or not. It's a low riding westward moving tropical wave in early September. Model guidance seems to be off this year with cyclogenesis anyways. Dorian was quite a whiff.

If we were to believe the models, 99L would not have formed last week.

[AtlanticWind]

Up to 20/70 at 2am

[Sciencerocks]

This has a decent chance of being the big one this season.
1. Very favorable conditions
2. early enough to make it across still

We will see but some of the models really like it.

[Orlando]

Not feeling too good about this one at all. My spidey senses are telling me that this one might be trouble.

[Astromanía]

This has a decent chance of being the big one this season.
1. Very favorable conditions
2. early enough to make it across still

We will see but some of the models really like it.

Even more than Dorian? On intensity and treatening to land?

[abajan]

This has a decent chance of being the big one this season.
1. Very favorable conditions
2. early enough to make it across still

We will see but some of the models really like it.

The big one this season is Dorian. There's practically zero chance of a bigger one! (Unless you're talking about the number of people affected, or the number of ACE points it can rack up.)

[bob rulz]

This has a decent chance of being the big one this season.
1. Very favorable conditions
2. early enough to make it across still

We will see but some of the models really like it.

The big one this season is Dorian. There's practically zero chance of a bigger one! (Unless you're talking about the number of people affected, or the number of ACE points it can rack up.)

I wouldn't say that. People said that after Irma in 2017, then Maria happened.

[jlauderdal]

Up to 20/70 at 2am

The NHC can see conditions are favorable and thats enough to go 20/70...as long as the st presentations look decent they will continue with the development idea...they also know where the models struggle and genesis in the tropical Atlantic is one of those areas that isnt great..models are a tool and in this case common sense says development is likely at this point...try not and overcomplicate it with models

[GCANE]

This is a massive area of TPW that is converging.
No way this is going to tighten up before 50W.
It has Carib Runner written all over it.
Given all the potential energy with it, it could exceed Dorian.

[Shell Mound]

This has a decent chance of being the big one this season.
1. Very favorable conditions
2. early enough to make it across still

We will see but some of the models really like it.

Respectfully, I disagree. Within two days low-level easterlies will strengthen and net shear increase as a strong TUTT axis develops to the north of 94L. Hence the ECMWF shows little or no development, whereas the GFS is too aggressive in the long range. Any development will likely wait until the wave axis interacts with an AWB over the subtropical western North Atlantic in the long range (beyond day five). Understandably, many people here are skittish, considering DORIAN and peak season. But every situation is different. What happened before DORIAN had little bearing on what came later; likewise, DORIAN has little bearing on what is to come.

[chris_fit]

Channel 10 Met in Tampa said yesterday afternoon, he don't like this one and we'll have to keep a close eye on it. He NEVER says stuff like that on air, and this thing just barely came off Africa! So many people 'know' about this little invest already, even my mom who barely watched the weather reports! Hoping it's just because everyone is on edge after Dorian.

Pro-Mets - Any credibility to everyone having a 'bad feeling' about this one?

[Nimbus]

00Z GFS run has this a hurricane north of Puerto Rico.
Appears to pass through the Hebert box so landfall would depend on the ridging.

Early run but its not calling for a Caribbean runner.

[kevin]

This looks like a textbook example of near perfect conditions and timing for a major storm. I can't see the future, but if there's any chance this season will see a bigger storm than Dorian, I'd put my money on this one. Of course, it'll have to form first so I shouldn't get ahead of myself.

[SFLcane]

Not impressed this morning looks convectively anemic. Long range gfs has an eastcoast trof parked in place if it try’s to get near the Bahamas.

[toad strangler]

Long range gfs has an eastcoast trof parked in place if it try’s to get near the Bahamas.

At this range you might as well flip a coin.

[GCANE]

Surface low just south of the islands.
However, the more important feature is the massive convergence SW of that.
This is the one that will prevail and move straight west.
Very classic setup of a protected pouch that will fight off SAL and Shear

[jlauderdal]

Not impressed this morning looks convectively anemic. Long range gfs has an eastcoast trof parked in place if it try’s to get near the Bahamas.

06z gfs brings it right off miami

[GCANE]

Wave is currently under an UL High

[GCANE]

Not impressed this morning looks convectively anemic. Long range gfs has an eastcoast trof parked in place if it try’s to get near the Bahamas.

06z gfs brings it right off miami

Big move SW, run to run

[SFLcane]

Not impressed this morning looks convectively anemic. Long range gfs has an eastcoast trof parked in place if it try’s to get near the Bahamas.

06z gfs brings it right off miami

Sure at 300+hrs out