WPAC: WUTIP - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/ExtremeStorms/status/1097497040660111360

[TorSkk]

Wutip is the next available name

[cycloneye]

HWRF is as GFS very bullish.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1097551067670294529

[Hayabusa]

JMA first

TD
Issued at 19:20 UTC, 18 February 2019

<Analysis at 18 UTC, 18 February>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N4°35' (4.6°)
E162°05' (162.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 1004 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 19 February>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N5°00' (5.0°)
E156°30' (156.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)

[Hayabusa]

[wxman57]

Official RSMC of the West Pac (JMA) has upgraded 92W to TDa (depression). Doesn't matter what JTWC says regarding its status, they're not the official body of any basin.

[cycloneye]

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
545 AM CHST TUE FEB 19 2019

.FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS AND HIGH SEAS WILL BE
HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

PMZ151>154-190900-
/O.EXT.PGUM.SC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-190226T0800Z/
GUAM COASTAL WATERS-ROTA COASTAL WATERS-TINIAN COASTAL WATERS-
SAIPAN COASTAL WATERS-
545 AM CHST TUE FEB 19 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CHST TUESDAY...

* WINDS...NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL INCREASE BY THE WEEKEND AS A
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE PASSES NEAR THE AREA.

* WAVES/SEAS...HAZARDOUS SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE FURTHER BY THE WEEKEND AS A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE PASSES
NEAR THE AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS AND
SEAS AT AND ABOVE 10 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE WAVE CONDITIONS
HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE
OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID SAILING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

[euro6208]

Scatterometer showed a circulation southwest of Kosrae near 4N162E
late Monday night. All models continue to bring this circulation to
the vicinity of the Marianas this coming weekend. The Joint Typhoon
Warning Center has issued a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert or TCFA
on the circulation. This means that it could develop into a tropical
cyclone within the next 12 to 24 hours.

Models are still undecided on timing and the exact track. To illustrate
that point...GFS and JMA have it passing south of Guam on Sunday...ECMWF
and ICON Saturday...NAVGEM on Saturday night and the CMC on Sunday night.
The one thing the models do agree on is that it will pass south and then
west of Guam. Earlier the NAVGEM had it going east of the local islands.

The intensity of the circulation as it passes near the Marianas is
still uncertain. Also there is as some disagreement as to how close
the system gets to the local area. Despite this...winds will become
elevated during the weekend. Winds over the Marianas are between
15 to 25 mph now...and this is without any influence by the
disturbance. When the disturbance passes in the vicinity of the local
area the pressure gradient will increase and so will the winds...even
if the circulation remains weak. So expect expect windy and gusty
conditions the coming weekend.

Models have the habit of progressing the development of a weather
feature too rapidly. While the probability of the circulation passing
near the Marianas seems high the exact timing and intensity is not as
clear. With this said...residents of the Marianas should keep up on
the latest information.

[euro6208]

92W INVEST 190218 1800 4.4N 161.7E WPAC 20 1002



TXPQ27 KNES 182131
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (92W)

B. 18/2030Z

C. 4.9N

D. 160.6E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR
DATA. >2/10 BANDING FOR A DT=1.0. MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...LEE

[euro6208]

 https://twitter.com/ExtremeStorms/status/1097558132493045760

[TyphoonNara]

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 3.4N 166.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.1N 164.4E, APPROXIMATELY 750
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS FLARING CONVECTION SURROUNDING SEVERAL WEAK, LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTERS (LLCC) EMBEDDED WITHIN AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE. A 172208Z MHS METOP-A 89GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF
SCATTERED, DISORGANIZED CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A VERY BROAD
CIRCULATION CENTER. 92W IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
EXCELLENT DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS, LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 92W WILL TRACK WESTWARD BEFORE TURNING TO THE
NORTHWEST, AS IT FURTHER INTENSIFIES AND SUBSEQUENTLY REACHES
WARNING CRITERIA. HOWEVER, MODELS DIFFER ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE
INTENSIFICATION WITH GFS, THE MOST AGGRESSIVE, SHOWING THE SYSTEM
REACHING WARNING STATUS WITHIN THE NEXT 18 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS HIGH

[TyphoonNara]

JMA's weather map.

[cycloneye]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 3.4N 166.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.8N 159.8E, APPROXIMATELY 154
NM SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS FLARING CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF A WEAK LOW LEVEL CENTER
(LLC). A 182257Z AMSU 89GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED,
DISORGANIZED CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A BROAD CIRCULATION CENTER.
INVEST 92W IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT
DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS, LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM
(28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT 92W WILL TRACK WESTWARD BEFORE TURNING TO THE
NORTHWEST, AS IT FURTHER INTENSIFIES AND SUBSEQUENTLY REACHES
WARNING CRITERIA. HOWEVER, MODELS DIFFER ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE
INTENSIFICATION WITH GFS, THE MOST AGGRESSIVE, SHOWING THE SYSTEM
REACHING WARNING STATUS WITHIN THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS, WHEREAS ECMWF
SHOWS MORE GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IN 18-24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS HIGH.

[euro6208]

TPPN10 PGTW 190039

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 92W (SE OF POHNPEI)

B. 19/0000Z

C. 4.84N

D. 160.07E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T1.0/1.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .25 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT AGREES. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


VEERKAMP

[TyphoonNara]

[euro6208]

TPPN10 PGTW 190334

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 92W (SE OF POHNPEI)

B. 19/0300Z

C. 4.50N

D. 159.38E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T1.5/1.5 STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .30 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. MET AND PT AGREES. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


VEERKAMP

[TyphoonNara]

It should be organized enough to meet TD standard from JTWC. Maybe JTWC has become much more cautious about upgrading invests into TDs after its failure with 01W?

[TyphoonNara]

TXPQ27 KNES 190339
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (92W)

B. 19/0230Z

C. 4.6N

D. 159.4E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.5/1.5/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR DATA.
CONVECTION WRAPS .3 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. MET = 1.0 AND
PT = 1.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL

...KIBLER

[1900hurricane]

I might upgrade based on microwave imagery.