ATL: BARRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track:


Location: 32.6°N 83.4°W
Maximum Winds: 15 kt Gusts: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1011 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1013 mb
Radius of Circulation: 150 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 80 NM

[Aric Dunn]

You really see there is a lobe developing in sw GA dropping sse quickly. When convection builds with that expect the vorticity to transfer.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, convection should start to build by tomorrow morning when the vorticity pulls off shore the FL Big Bend region.

Tomorrow will be a very very interesting day seeing 92L really evolve in the Northern GOM.

[psyclone]

Looks like a lot of guidance is gunning for the Lake Charles CWA. Considering how much better models are I believe it. It used to be that one could feel safe being in the target zone 5 days out...but things have gotten sufficiently good that's no longer the case. That's a very surge and freshwater flood prone area so at least there's a long lead time if indeed things do escalate.

[Steve]

Here's Joe B's afternoon discussion saying Cat 1 at the TX/LA border.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BLDofzu ... e=youtu.be

[MississippiWx]

With the NHC showing so much confidence in development, I would expect them to issue PTC advisories as early as tomorrow.

[psyclone]

With the NHC showing so much confidence in development, I would expect them to issue PTC advisories as early as tomorrow.

It really depends on how far south the system develops. If it's far enough south it can lumber west for a good while during which the watch/warning criteria gales remain offshore. Regardless interesting times are ahead

[gatorcane]

What a coup for the upgraded Euro if this develops into a hurricane and heads towards the NW Gulf. All there is right now is a swirl of cumulus over GA. Not a good start for the new GFS if it does develop but as we can see seems the old GFS may be even more off so at least there is progress with the model.

[Blinhart]

This board will be getting very busy if this system starts forming as soon as it gets off land, we could see anything from a TD to a Major Hurricane depending on course and speed. So we will be seeing all types of guesses and people jumping on here, it could get really exciting in the next couple days. I know I will be on quite a bit once it gets off land.

[tarheelprogrammer]

There sure is a lot of rotation for a low that is still over land. I believe this thing already has a nice center to it, hopefully it finds a way to stay weak in the GOM.

[NDG]

What a coup for the upgraded Euro if this develops into a hurricane and heads towards the NW Gulf. All there is right now is a swirl of cumulus over GA. Not a good start for the new GFS if it does develop but as we can see seems the old GFS may be even more off so at least there is progress with the model.

In the other hand, the GFS has done fairly well over in the EPAC. And it did pretty good with 91L.

[South Texas Storms]

What a coup for the upgraded Euro if this develops into a hurricane and heads towards the NW Gulf. All there is right now is a swirl of cumulus over GA. Not a good start for the new GFS if it does develop but as we can see seems the old GFS may be even more off so at least there is progress with the model.

Yeah the Euro was the first model to pick up on this system's development. It hinted at development all the way back to the 3/4 of July. Would certainly be a nice start to the season for the Euro if this system does develop, which looks increasingly likely.

[ScottNAtlanta]

The thing to watch is how quickly it gets stacked. The GFS doesnt think that will happen, while the Euro does so rather quickly. It wont take very long to know which one is correct.

[OuterBanker]

Well, apparently, we are out of it. Latest from NWS.

ECMWF continues to consistently keep tropical formation and movement
in the GOM south and west of the region, so chances for tropical
rains are slim at this time.

No threat of an east coast rider, but I fear this might bring flooding rains into areas that have already experienced flooding.

Also, what is concerning is that the new improved GFS thinks nothing of it. Latest run is a land falling 1004 low center.

All the other models have either a TS or Hurricane.

Maybe it’s right, but to me it looks like it will be a complete bust.

Again!

Extraordinary amount of energy in eastern NC this afternoon. This could be inhibiting the development of the low in Ga at the moment. This energy should clear the coast by tomorrow and allow the low in Ga to feed of all the energy in the Gulf.

One other note. The local NWS office often prefers the Euro and discounts the GFS as you can see from the above excerpt.

[Shell Mound]

Possible analog for prospective BARRY:


1943 Surprise hurricane

[Rgv20]

NWS Brownsville afternoon discussion regarding 92L

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday): High pressure will be in
control to start the long term period. The elephant in the room of
course is the evolution of Invest 92L, forecast to drop southward
out of Georgia and into the gulf early on in the forecast period.

The upper level steering currents are very interesting as a strong
594-598dam dome of high pressure will be present across the inter
mountain west. Models have all shifted in some way or another to
the left of where they were at this point yesterday. Not
surprising again given the strong high pressure that will build
eastward on the north side of the tropical low.

Where it goes is really depending on many variables including 1)
how far south it initially can go before it begins to move
west/west northwest and 2) how much strengthening is involved.
Lets not forget the upper level trough pattern across the Great
Lakes. If these dig just a bit with a bit deeper system, the low
may find the weakness and continue northeastward similar to the
previous models from yesterday.

That said, at this point we can`t rule anything out. In fact, the
system isn`t even over water yet so we`ll take a hurry up and wait
approach and see what additional forecast model runs suggest
before getting too concerned...though again the easterly or east
northeast flow aloft from the dome of high pressure upstream is
particularly interesting.

With the guidance suggesting a more westerly track, did include
20 POPs for the long term, however, confidence is very low at
this time. If a track more to the right of the general consensus
is realized, we will probably remain very dry and very hot with
subsidence present. Regardless, we`ll continue to monitor the
situation.

[TheAustinMan]

The gradual craw of the preexisting vorticity towards the Gulf of Mexico is in progress this afternoon. Satellite observations of low-level cloud motions over the Southeastern United States and surface observations show that winds at the surface and in the low-levels are backing over southwestern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle, an indication that the low-level rotation is stretching towards the Gulf. This short-term evolution has been well-forecast by high-resolution mesoscale guidance. Indeed, the latest vorticity analyses from CIMSS show that the 850 hPa and 700 hPa vorticity maxima have shifted southwards to around the Florida/Georgia border in the vicinity of Tallahassee. The spin at the mid-levels is still centered farther west over southern Alabama, but model guidance suggests that this should drift south into the Gulf and allow time for the low-level vorticity to stack a bit better under the spin aloft.

Light convection is currently in progress over the Florida Panhandle which will help modify the current wind field. Expect an increase in convection over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico at the oceanic diurnal maximum in the hours leading up to dawn tomorrow morning. A surface low will probably take more time to organize - perhaps over the course of several days - but an elevated and closed circulation at about the 850hPa level should be over or emerging into the Gulf by tomorrow evening.

174 kB. Source: Storm Prediction Center :: The surface wind field is still a mess, but don't expect a whole lot at sea-level until more coalescing and better alignment of the circulation aloft happens over the warm Gulf waters.

[johngaltfla]

12z icon looks extremely plausible. Check out how the convection that develops over northern gulf later today and tonight rapidly pull/develops the low/vorticity offshore by tomorrow midday. Watching the convective pattern today is very key https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 812&fh=-42

If indeed it stays over 90 degree water for 3 days, that will intensify and become a serious threat for TX and LA. Let's hope it's a coastal hugger and goes inland before it gets too much time over the Bath of Mexico.

[SoupBone]

Where in the world is our buddy, wxman57?

[floridasun78]

Where in the world is our buddy, wxman57?

he i bet on summer vacation before peck hurr season