ATL: BARRY - Models

[Steve]

12z faster than 00z.

I am looking at the forecasted point for the same time period on last night's 0z run on weather.us and it is identical in timing, if anything it slows down a little bit Saturday morning and a bit further north and east.

Word. I was on Tidbits and ran last/next. Seems like there might be something you're supposed to do to compensate that it's 12 hours later, but this is the first storm I've looked at in 10 months. So I can't remember.

[Steve]

Not when compared to last night's run.

Did for me when I ran the last/next unless I was supposed to compensate for the hours. Same for 120. Stronger, and farther south and west.
http://i65.tinypic.com/15y67tk.jpg

When you do it through tropical tidbits it only compares it to yesterday's 12z run and not to last night's 0z run.

Oh ****, that's right. I actually had snips of the 12z and 00z, but neither tinypic nor imgur are cooperating fully. So I had to go to the trend button which is where it screwed me up. When you do it manually, that might be when you have to adjust for the 12 hour intervals.

[tarheelprogrammer]

It appears as if the ECMWF is trending toward the UKMET in terms of intensity. Hopefully, there is a massive amount of dry air and shear that hits this system, or things could go sideways quickly. What is the difference between the GFS and ECMWF in terms of environment?

[cycloneye]

Still HWRF nor HMON are up in this run.

[NDG]

The shift to the right is not that much at landfall, maybe 20 miles or so near the TX-LA border.

[Steve]

FWIW, "Barry" is inland Sunday, but due to the 12 hour EC low-res we have access to, it's impossible to tell exactly when Saturday night it happens. Looks to go in Cameron Parish, LA - Orange/Jefferson Cos., TX. Worst from the EC looks to be Lake Charles/Sulphur to about Vidor/Orange/Port Arthur, TX.

[LeonardRay]

Euro is very consistent, 2 landfalls in a row in jefferson county of TX (Sabine Pass)

[StormLogic]

+72
The more south it goes, the more chance of development can occur imo

[NDG]

So now that weather.us has updated, it actually shows 92L slowing down at landfall, shows landfall around 11-12AM Saturday night near the TX/LA border or Sabine Pass while the previous 0z run had landfall around 6 PM south of Beaumont.

It hammers Cameron Parish and L.C. on this run.

[Siker]

Looks like winds peak at 80kt on that Euro run.

[TheStormExpert]

This particular model is VERY bullish and has a large eye!

 https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/1148311749453647873

[Siker]

This particular model is VERY bullish and has a large eye!

https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/1148311749453647873

What the hell that says 924mb. Is their model based on the 3km NAM?

[Kingarabian]

Maybe the 18z GFS will finally come on board.

[Dylan]

 https://twitter.com/dylanfedericowx/status/1148315021396664325

[Kingarabian]

On the high resolution 12z Euro run it has 983mb and 68kt 10m winds @ landfall.

[ColdMiser123]

Still a good amount of spread on the new EPS, solutions from south Texas through eastern Louisiana.

[MississippiWx]

This particular model is VERY bullish and has a large eye!

https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/1148311749453647873

What the hell that says 924mb. Is their model based on the 3km NAM?

The strength is going to depend on how long it takes the system to sufficiently organize its circulation once over water. It is surprisingly very much in tact over Georgia currently with a complete 360 degrees of turning at the surface. If convection gets going quickly once over the water, a major hurricane is not out of the question. 924mb is laughable, but I wouldn’t throw out a Cat 3 possibility.

[TheProfessor]

This particular model is VERY bullish and has a large eye!

https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/1148311749453647873

What the hell that says 924mb. Is their model based on the 3km NAM?

Yeah, that would be insane, I'm not sure how well that model scores, but until we actually have a system formed I wouldn't put too much stock in any intensity forecas

[Tireman4]

This particular model is VERY bullish and has a large eye!

https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/1148311749453647873

What the hell that says 924mb. Is their model based on the 3km NAM?

Yeah, that would be insane, I'm not sure how well that model scores, but until we actually have a system formed I wouldn't put too much stock in any intensity forecas

I agree with you young sir. I agree. Until we get data samples, reconnaissance and the like, I will stand pat and see.

[tarheelprogrammer]

This particular model is VERY bullish and has a large eye!

https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/1148311749453647873

What the hell that says 924mb. Is their model based on the 3km NAM?

The strength is going to depend on how long it takes the system to sufficiently organize its circulation once over water. It is surprisingly very much in tact over Georgia currently with a complete 360 degrees of turning at the surface. If convection gets going quickly once over the water, a major hurricane is not out of the question. 924mb is laughable, but I wouldn’t throw out a Cat 3 possibility.

After Michael last year, I do not doubt any solution from TS to Cat 5.