ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

[TheStormExpert]

The wave behind 94L might have a slightly better chance at spinning up according to the latest 06z GEFS Ensembles.

[SFLcane]

06z gfs brings it right off miami

Sure at 300+hrs out

lol, but the run showing the trough was ok?

Was just stating what the gfs was showing obviously subject to change.

[jlauderdal]

Sure at 300+hrs out

lol, but the run showing the trough was ok?

Was just stating what the gfs was showing obviously subject to change.

300 hours way out in time, lets hope for a recurve, development seems likely..we were damn fortunate in Florida

[GCANE]

Deep Feeder Band from Gabrielle moistening mid-layer ahead of 94L.
Could be significant in terms of intensity potential down the road.

[NDG]

Very good chance in 94L developing into a strong system if indeed it stays on a southerly track but not until it passes the 40th longitude, IMO. No much problem with dust and the environment is a little more moist than with Dorian.

[GCANE]

[SFLcane]

Very good chance in 94L developing into a strong system if indeed it stays on a southerly track but not until it passes the 40th longitude, IMO. No much problem with dust and the environment is a little more moist than with Dorian.

The GFS though 06z hints at a trof possibly scooping it out of the caribbean unfortunately close to the Bahamas. At this point it might not even develop most EPS members take it out to sea.

[NotSparta]

https://nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/sectors/atcf_sector_file

[NDG]

Very good chance in 94L developing into a strong system if indeed it stays on a southerly track but not until it passes the 40th longitude, IMO. No much problem with dust and the environment is a little more moist than with Dorian.

The GFS though 06z hints at a trof possibly scooping it out of the caribbean unfortunately close to the Bahamas. At this point it might not even develop most EPS members take it out to sea.

This one part in which the Euro failed with Dorian before it developed, that it show it gaining latitude before the Windward Islands when in fact it did not. The GFS did best with it s track before it developed.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1169996494398742533

[jlauderdal]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1169996494398742533

50 gallons of gas in the garage from dorian, 25 gallons of water, supply donation made to the bahamas peeps..ready to tackle this one

[cycloneye]

A broad area of low pressure located just southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands is producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity.
Little, if any, development of this disturbance is expected for the
next couple of days, but environmental conditions are likely to
become more conducive for a tropical depression to form by Tuesday
or Wednesday while the system moves westward across the tropical
Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[GCANE]

Much hotter than normal sea-surface temps in the MDR

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track:

Location: 14.0°N 26.5°W
Maximum Winds: 20 kt Gusts: nan kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1011 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1013 mb
Radius of Circulation: 180 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 60 NM

[hipshot]

https://i.imgur.com/qRYca77.png

What's that area in yellow to the west of 94l?

[BYG Jacob]

This is why you don’t season cancel in August and July

[Abdullah]

Much hotter than normal sea-surface temps in the MDR

https://i.imgur.com/o2BbQ6W.png

How long will it take for the waters east of South Florida and surrounding the Bahamas to warm up again? I thought Dorian soaked them up pretty good.

[Abdullah]

This is why you don’t season cancel in August and July

It'll happen 'till the end of time.

[toad strangler]

This is why you don’t season cancel in August and July

Those doing so are still posting regularly. I hope they gained some experience.

[Aric Dunn]

Im not going to read the first few pages... just because i don't want to read the " its too dry" or "its dead" "never going to develop" crap.. especially after the first two weeks of that with pre dorian..

I hope everyone has learned to never say never.. dont declare anything dead until its inland etc..


As for this wave.. as many probably have already alluded too. threat to Carib and later on the US is again rather High..