ATL: BARRY - Models

[South Texas Storms]

Still a good amount of spread on the new EPS, solutions from south Texas through eastern Louisiana.

Overall though it looks like the mean shifted west by a decent amount.

[ColdMiser123]

Still a good amount of spread on the new EPS, solutions from south Texas through eastern Louisiana.

Overall though it looks like the mean shifted west by a decent amount.

Agreed. There are now no members east of eastern Louisiana, and the CMC/UKMET solutions are actually on the extreme eastern side of the EPS ensemble spread. It looks like at least half turn this into a hurricane now, and about ~10% reach Category 2.

[South Texas Storms]

Curious to see what the HMON and HWRF show with this system. They should start running with the 18z cycle, which would be available in about 3 hours.

[Steve]

NAM 18z doesn’t do much with it but now takes it just south of the LA coast and ambles it over to to Upper Texas Coast.

[CrazyC83]

18Z GFS barely takes it offshore at all, runs along the beaches and bayous. Not really buying it right now.

[Hurricaneman]

18Z GFS barely takes it offshore at all, runs along the beaches and bayous. Not really buying it right now.

If I’d doesnt head west by Tuesday afternoon then the GFS will need to be discounted but it’s completely possible that the GFS is either right or will adjust farther offshore and develop like every other model

[NDG]

18z GFS is still persistent that 92L will fight light northerly shear and dry air in the mid levels as it tracks westward.
A little slower and NE of previous runs.

[Aric Dunn]

18z GFS is pretty not very useful..

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS also looks slower and more E/NE on this run:

[tarheelprogrammer]

GFS could be right, as the NAM models appear to do the same. We shall see, I remember something similar being modeled in the past few years. I cannot remember which system, but the GFS ended up being right and the system stayed closer to the coast and therefore stayed weaker. It is very possible.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1148351303770345473

[CrazyC83]

GFS could be right, as the NAM models appear to do the same. We shall see, I remember something similar being modeled in the past few years. I cannot remember which system, but the GFS ended up being right and the system stayed closer to the coast and therefore stayed weaker. It is very possible.

Edouard in 2008 perhaps? That seems to be the low-end analog here, with Alicia the high-end analog.

[SoupBone]

GFS could be right, as the NAM models appear to do the same. We shall see, I remember something similar being modeled in the past few years. I cannot remember which system, but the GFS ended up being right and the system stayed closer to the coast and therefore stayed weaker. It is very possible.

Edouard in 2008 perhaps? That seems to be the low-end analog here, with Alicia the high-end analog.

Alicia? What year?

[Kingarabian]

GFS could be right, as the NAM models appear to do the same. We shall see, I remember something similar being modeled in the past few years. I cannot remember which system, but the GFS ended up being right and the system stayed closer to the coast and therefore stayed weaker. It is very possible.

Edouard in 2008 perhaps? That seems to be the low-end analog here, with Alicia the high-end analog.

Alicia? What year?

1983

[cycloneye]

18z GFS is pretty not very useful..

Let's see what 00z has and is not a repeat.

[TexWx]

[/quote]Alicia? What year?[/quote]

1983

[Aric Dunn]

I am going to disregard the GFS for now. Until it can handle the current vorticity.. the 12z was much better than the 18z. it was still a little wonky with all the center reformations though..

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Oh, how the tides turn. Yesterday the ECMWF was a clear outlier, now it's the GFS.

[northjaxpro]

18z GFS also looks slower and more E/NE on this run:o
https://i.imgur.com/3LZtcFP.gif

It is on this particular run.

[Aric Dunn]

Oh, how the tides turn. Yesterday the ECMWF was a clear outlier, now it's the GFS.

it is not exactly an outlier. it is just having some issues with the vorticity. the overall reasoning for track is inline with the euro.