SPAC: PENNY - Post-Tropical

[TorSkk]

95P INVEST 181227 1200 12.0S 145.0E SHEM 15 1002

The monsoon trough is expected to form this weekend and extend from Cape York Peninsula and into the northern Coral Sea. Although there is currently no significant systems in the Eastern Region, there is an increasing likelihood of a significant tropical low developing along the monsoon trough from Monday onwards. However, the location of where this tropical low will form remains uncertain.


Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region (Coral Sea) on:
Friday:Very Low
Saturday:Very Low
Sunday:Very low

[WAcyclone]

BOM is now giving this system a high chance (>50%) of development within the next three days:

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Friday 28 December 2018
for the period until midnight EST Monday 31 December 2018.

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

Two tropical lows have been analysed along the developing monsoon trough across the northwestern Coral Sea. These systems are expected to consolidate into a significant tropical low offshore of the Peninsula coast over the next 24 hours.

Atmospheric conditions are currently favourable for development, provided the tropical low remains over water, over the weekend and into next week. As a result, the likelihood of the system developing into a tropical cyclone has increased to moderate for Sunday and high from Monday.

There are currently no other significant tropical lows in the Eastern Region.


Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region (Coral Sea) on:
Saturday:Very Low
Sunday:Moderate
Monday:High

[vortextracker]

As of 06:00 UTC Dec 28, 2018:

Location: 13.7°S 147.1°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 mb



https://imgur.com/PjiaViH

[vortextracker]

vigorous mt atm in the spac


https://imgur.com/Xe0TTga 12z
EC two runs same 00z https://imgur.com/2jDPdvT

[TyphoonNara]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.4S 146.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.0S 145.1E, APPROXIMATELY
184 NM SOUTHWEST OF PORT MORESBY, PAPUA NEW GUINEA. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 281700Z SSMI 85GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH SOME DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH. A
281206Z ASCAT PASS REVEALED AN ORGANIZING LLCC WITH STRONGER WINDS
DISPLACED FROM THE CENTER. OVERALL, THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (20-30 KT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(28-30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE SYSTEM CONTINUING TO DEVELOP WITHIN 48 HOURS. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW
GENERALLY STATIONARY OR A SLIGHT LOOPING MOTION IN THE NEAR TERM
OVER THE YORK PENINSULA OF AUSTRALIA, AS A SECOND CIRCULATION
POTENTIALLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.

[TyphoonNara]

[TorSkk]

The monsoon trough currently extends across far north Queensland and the northern Coral Sea. The monsoon trough is expected to develop further over the coming days, while continuing to extend across this area.

At 2pm AEST Saturday, a number of tropical lows were analysed along the monsoon trough including one off the Peninsula coast, another south of Sudest Island (PNG) and further one near the Solomon Islands. There is a high chance that a tropical cyclone will form in the northern Coral Sea over the next few days.

At this stage, no Tropical Cyclone Advices are current for Queensland, though this will be continually reviewed during the course of the weekend. A Severe Weather Warning is current for far north Queensland and can be viewed at http://www.bom.gov.au/qld/warnings/.


Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:

Sunday: Moderate

Monday: High

Tuesday: High

[TyphoonNara]

You can see the three invests in this image (95P, 94P and 97P).

[TyphoonNara]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.8S 144.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.8S 144.4E, APPROXIMATELY
145 NM EAST OF WEIPA, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 292045Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD
CIRCULATION WITH DEEP PERSISTING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH AND SEVERAL
AREAS OF FLARING CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THE DISTURBANCE
IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF EXCELLENT POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-
25 KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW TWO SEPARATE SOLUTIONS. THE MOST FAVORED SOLUTION SHOWS
THE SYSTEM TRACKING WEST INTO THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA, INTENSIFYING
QUICKLY, THEN TRACKING BACK EAST. THE LESS FAVORED SOLUTION SHOWS
THE SYSTEM CONTINUING WESTWARD BEFORE BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY AND
INTENSIFYING IN THE CORAL SEA BEFORE TRACKING EAST. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS HIGH.

[TyphoonNara]

WTPS21 PGTW 300030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.7S 144.7E TO 13.0S 138.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 292300Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.8S 144.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.2S 144.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.8S 144.4E, APPROXIMATELY
145 NM EAST OF WEIPA, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 292045Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD
CIRCULATION WITH DEEP PERSISTING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH AND SEVERAL
AREAS OF FLARING CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THE DISTURBANCE
IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF EXCELLENT POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-
25 KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW TWO SEPARATE SOLUTIONS. THE MOST FAVORED SOLUTION SHOWS
THE SYSTEM TRACKING WEST INTO THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA, INTENSIFYING
QUICKLY, THEN TRACKING BACK EAST. THE LESS FAVORED SOLUTION SHOWS
THE SYSTEM CONTINUING WESTWARD BEFORE BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY AND
INTENSIFYING IN THE CORAL SEA BEFORE TRACKING EAST. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
310030Z.//
NNNN

[TyphoonNara]

TCFA

[vortextracker]

Issued at 4:37 pm AEST Sunday 30 December 2018. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 1.

Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near the centre of 30 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 75 kilometres of 13.2 degrees South, 142.9 degrees East , 130 kilometres east southeast of Weipa and 130 kilometres east of Aurukun .
Movement: west at 13 kilometres per hour .

The tropical low is forecast to deepen today while moving in a westwards direction across Cape York Peninsula. The tropical low is expected to intensify as it moves over Gulf of Carpentaria waters on Monday and at this stage it is rated a high chance of forming into a tropical cyclone on Tuesday.http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ65002.shtml

[Hypercane_Kyle]

12z GFS showing this becoming a very violent cyclone by 36 hours.

[vortextracker]

https://meteologix.com/au/satellite/nor ... 2320z.html


https://imgur.com/wJMZXLn
realtime earth winds shows the nw monsoon and se flow into the low very well.

[TorSkk]

95P INVEST 181231 0000 12.8S 139.6E SHEM 35 998

[vortextracker]

IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0123 UTC 31/12/2018
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 07U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 13.0S
Longitude: 140.0E
Location Accuracy: within 40 nm [75 km]
Movement Towards: west [263 deg]
Speed of Movement: 8 knots [15 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots [45 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 999 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/D1.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm [280 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 31/0600: 13.0S 139.6E: 050 [095]: 030 [055]: 999
+12: 31/1200: 13.0S 139.7E: 065 [120]: 030 [055]: 999
+18: 31/1800: 13.1S 140.0E: 075 [140]: 040 [075]: 994
+24: 01/0000: 13.3S 140.7E: 090 [165]: 040 [075]: 996
+36: 01/1200: 13.8S 142.6E: 110 [200]: 035 [065]: 999
+48: 02/0000: 14.4S 144.6E: 130 [235]: 030 [055]: 1002
+60: 02/1200: 14.7S 147.0E: 150 [275]: 030 [055]: 1002
+72: 03/0000: 15.2S 149.7E: 165 [310]: 035 [065]: 1000
+96: 04/0000: 16.4S 153.6E: 210 [390]: 055 [100]: 986
+120: 05/0000: 17.4S 153.1E: 300 [555]: 055 [100]: 986
REMARKS:
The tropical low is tracking in a westwards direction across the Gulf of
Carpentaria and is situated along a strengthening monsoon trough, which extends
from the northern Gulf of Carpentaria to the Coral Sea. Weipa radar shows broad
rotation around the LLCC and as a result there is a fair degree of confidence in
the location of the centre. The current westwards motion is mainly due to low to
middle level steering due to a high pressure system in the Tasman Sea, though as
the system deepens it is expected to adopt a track back towards the west coast
of Cape York Peninsula overnight as the monsoon strengthens across the northern
Gulf of Carpentaria and Coral Sea.

The tropical low is located north of the upper ridge, with good outflow to the
northwest and southwest. However shear is estimated at 20-30 knots and is
evident by the deepest convection displaced west of the low level centre. Recent
satellite imagery shows convection developing near the low centre and weak
curvature in the deep convection to the west. Dvorak analysis of T2.0 based on a
0.3 wrap. MET=1.5, adjusted to 2.0 by pattern.

Forecast intensity is based on a standard development. Wind shear is lower along
the forecast path. Maximum intensity is forecast at 45 knots before landfall on
the west coast of Cape York Peninsula but category 2 remains a possibility if
the system spends more time over water. The system is expected to weaken below
TC intensity as it crosses Cape York Peninsula but may reintensify into a TC
over the Coral Sea later this week.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 31/0730 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.

[vortextracker]

Tropical Cyclone Penny
Issued at 7:43 am AEST Tuesday 1 January 2019

Details of Tropical Cyclone Penny at 7:00 am AEST:
Intensity: category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 75 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 100 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 35 kilometres of 12.7 degrees South, 140.9 degrees East , 110 kilometres west of Weipa and 115 kilometres northwest of Aurukun .
Movement: east southeast at 8 kilometres per hour .

Tropical cyclone Penny has formed in the eastern Gulf of Carpentaria. Penny is expected to move east towards Cape York Peninsula and cross the coast near Weipa this afternoon as a category 1 system. The cyclone may reach category 2 if it moves slower than expected and spends more time over water.


Hazards:
GALES, with peak gusts in excess of 90km/h, are occurring on the western Cape York Peninsula coast between Mapoon and Aurukun, and may extend to remaining areas between Cape York and Pormpuraaw later today. Isolated damaging wind gusts may occur otherwise with monsoonal thunderstorms over the Torres Strait Islands, and a separate Severe Weather Warning is current for these conditions.

HEAVY RAINFALL, which may lead to flash flooding, is likely across Cape York Peninsula and parts of the North Tropical Coast today and Wednesday.

A Flood Watch remains current for coastal catchments north of Cardwell, including catchments across the Cape York Peninsula. A separate Severe Weather Warning is also current for rainfall on the northeast tropical coast.

TIDES will be higher than normal through Torres Strait and along the northwest Cape York Peninsula over the next couple of days.

As the cyclone approaches the coast, a storm tide is expected between Cape York and Cape Keerweer. Large waves may produce minor flooding along the foreshore. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to help their neighbours.

Recommended Action:
People between Cape York and Pormpuraaw should take precautions and listen to the next advice at 11am AEST.

- Information is available from your local government
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

[vortextracker]

Atm just looks a big classic monsoonal low too me. Usually not handled v/well by
dvorak technique.
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR782.loop.shtml#skip

[TorSkk]

IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1259 UTC 02/01/2019
Name: Tropical Cyclone Penny
Identifier: 07U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 13.0S
Longitude: 147.6E
Movement Towards: east [094 deg]
Speed of Movement: 16 knots [29 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots [75 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Central Pressure: 996 hPa
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/S0.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm [335 km]
REMARKS:
Penny reformed into a tropical cyclone in the northwest Coral Sea during
Wednesday afternoon and is tracking in an eastwards direction away from the
Queensland east coast. There is good confidence in the location of the centre
based on enhanced infrared satellite imagery.

The latest Dvorak analysis was done using a curved band pattern with a 0.5
degree wrap, which yielded a DT of 2.5. MET and PAT were both 2.5. FT was based
on DT. CI was maintained at 3.0. The current intensity of the system was
analysed at 40 knots [near the centre] and the latest ASCAT-B at 1128UTC shows a
swath of strong gales to the north of the system.

Penny is currently moving in an eastwards direction across the northern Coral
Sea under the influence of monsoonal flow to the north of the system and an
upper level trough over Queensland. The latter feature is expected to amplify
and retreat a little to the west later in the week, with mid-level riding
building to the south of the system. A combination of these evolving synoptic
features and a weakening of the monsoonal flow should allow for the system to
adopt a track back towards the west during Friday or Saturday.

The CIMMS vertical wind shear product indicates that the system currently exists
in a low wind shear environment of 10-15 knots. Satellite imagery continues to
show that convection remains confined to northern and western flanks of the
system, though poleward outflow has improved over the last 24 hours. Sea surface
temperatures across the northern Cora Sea are generally around 28-29 degrees
along the forecast track for the next 24-48 hours. Given these factors it is
anticipated that Penny will intensify at standard rate over the next 24 hours or
so, but should start to plateau into Friday as the equatorward outflow channel
closes and the risk of drier mid-level air infiltrating the circulation
increases.

Longer term, the system may approach the northern or central Queensland coast
early next week, though there is a fair degree of uncertainty surrounding
whether it will still retain tropical cyclone structure by this time.

[TorSkk]