BOB: PABUK - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: PABUK - Tropical Storm

#21 Postby euro6208 » Tue Jan 01, 2019 6:42 am

WDPN31 PGTW 010900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 36W (THIRTYSIX)
WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 36W (THIRTYSIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
354 NM SOUTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) WHICH SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION JUST WEST OF THE
LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30 KTS). THE SURROUNDING
ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (20-30 KTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS), EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (27-28
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AND
GULF OF THAILAND. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 36W IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TURN NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG SOUTH OF THE STR. MODERATE
VWS AND MARGINAL SST WILL LIMIT INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 40 KTS
BY TAU 36. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS NEAR THE CONSENSUS AND
REPRESENTS AN AVERAGE BETWEEN THE MORE INTENSE COAMPS-NAVGEM AND
COAMPS-GFS SOLUTIONS AND THE LESS INTENSE HWRF SOLUTION. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM AND JGSM, MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS CLOSELY
ALIGNED WITH THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK THROUGH TAU 72.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TD 36W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR WHILE LAND INTERACTION
AND MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL CAUSE TD 36W
TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY. ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR THE
CYCLONE TO WEAKEN, THE COAMPS MODELS MAINTAIN THE INTENSITY OF TD
36W AT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. SPREAD IN
THE NUMERICAL MDOEL GUIDANCE IS 380 NM BY TAU 120, HOWEVER,
ELIMINATING NAVGEM (NORTHERN OUTLIER) AND JGSM (SOUTHERN OUTLIER)
REDUCES THE SPREAD TO 176 NM, LENDING TO FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: PABUK - Tropical Storm

#22 Postby euro6208 » Tue Jan 01, 2019 6:52 pm

Image

WDPN31 PGTW 012100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 36W (PABUK) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 36W (PABUK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 321 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE USING ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) WHICH DEPICTS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER LOCATED ON THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS HEDGED
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30 KTS)
BASED ON AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS INDICATING 35 KNOTS AROUND THE LLCC. VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR HAS RELAXED SOMEWHAT, NOW AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS ROBUST.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE AT 27 TO 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. THE CYCLONE IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 36W IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TURN NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS
AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN TO SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR.
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED BY MODERATE VWS, WITH A PEAK NEAR
45 KNOTS PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL OVER THE MALAY PENINSULA NEAR TAU 72. SPREAD AMONG
INTENSITY GUIDANCE MEMBERS IS WITHIN 5 TO 10 KNOTS. MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48, THEN INCREASES AS SOME MODELS, NOTABLY THE GFS,
BEGIN TO ROUND THE STR PRIOR TO CROSSING THE MALAY PENINSULA, WHILE THE MAJORITY
OF THE GUIDANCE DOES SO AFTER TS 36W ENTERS THE BAY OF BENGAL.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TS 36W WILL BEGIN TO CURVE TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AS IT ROUNDS
THE STR. INCREASING VWS AND REDUCED OUTFLOW SUPPORT WILL WEAKEN PABUK TO BELOW
WARNING CRITERIA BY TAU 120. WITH MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE MEMBERS CLUSTERED
NEAR THE JTWC FORECAST, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: PABUK - Tropical Storm

#23 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Wed Jan 02, 2019 1:05 am

Pabuk was named on Jan 1, and per JMA, this makes it the earliest TS formation in the NWPac since record keeping began. The previous record was Jan 2 by 1979's TC Alice. This is the first time that a TS formed on Jan 1 in the basin (JMA data).
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Re: WPAC: PABUK - Tropical Storm

#24 Postby Hayabusa » Wed Jan 02, 2019 2:14 am

Can this earliest formation based on JMA a hint of another above average season for 2019? Can 2019 beat 2018? :double:
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Re: WPAC: PABUK - Tropical Storm

#25 Postby TyphoonNara » Wed Jan 02, 2019 6:54 am

Hayabusa wrote:Can this earliest formation based on JMA a hint of another above average season for 2019? Can 2019 beat 2018? :double:


I think it is quite possible. After a long inactive cycle in the late 2000s and early 2010s, I think we may be entering a new active cycle.

We may finally see 2 consecutive active years in a row in over 10 years.
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Re: WPAC: PABUK - Tropical Storm

#26 Postby euro6208 » Wed Jan 02, 2019 5:11 pm

Image

WDPN31 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 36W (PABUK) WARNING NR
011//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 36W (PABUK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 287 NM SOUTH
OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER DUE TO STRONG (25 TO 35 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). DESPITE THE VWS, A 021851Z AMSR2 36GHZ IMAGE INDICATES IMPROVED
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WITH SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY
INTO A BROAD, WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, WHICH SUPPORTS
THE CURRENT POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON A 021350Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING 40 KNOT
WINDS. EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SST IS
BEING OFFSET BY THE STRONG VWS LIMITING INTENSIFICATION. THE CYCLONE
IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 36W IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS IT BEGINS TO ROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE STR. THE FORECAST INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO REACH A PEAK OF 50
KNOTS BY TAU 24 AS VWS IS EXPECTED TO LESSEN SLIGHTLY. SPREAD IN THE
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS DECREASED TO 130NM AT TAU 72, LENDING TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS PLACED
CLOSE TO CONSENSUS.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 36W WILL BEGIN TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD TOI NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AS RECURVES AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR.
TS 36W WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AND SLOW DUE TO STRONG VWS AND UPPER-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH, AND
DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY SURGE
FLOW. DUE TO THE LARGE SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 120 (420NM), THERE
IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: PABUK - Tropical Storm

#27 Postby TyphoonNara » Wed Jan 02, 2019 9:36 pm

Looking pretty disorganised.

Image

Image
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Re: WPAC: PABUK - Tropical Storm

#28 Postby euro6208 » Wed Jan 02, 2019 10:46 pm

WDPN31 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 36W (PABUK) WARNING NR
012//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 36W (PABUK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED AND EARLY HIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT A WEAK SYSTEM BEING INFLUENCED BY STRONG (30 TO 40
KNOTS) EASTERLY SHEAR, WITH THE LLCC NOW PARTIALLY EXPOSED ON THE EAST SIDE
OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE. WHILE THE CONVECTION IS BEING SHEARED OFF
TO THE WEST, THE LLCC REMAINS WELL DEFINED IN A 022310Z SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE, WITH SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A BROAD BUT WELL-DEFINED
LLCC, LENDING GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE INITIAL POSITION. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5, HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN LIGHT OF THE MOST
RECENT ASCAT DATA FROM 12 HOURS AGO. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM LIES IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT, WITH STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM
SSTS (28-29 CELSIUS) BEING OFFSET BY THE STRONG VWS LIMITING INTENSIFICATION
AT THE CURRENT TIME. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 36W IS FORECAST TO TURN TOWARDS A MORE NORTHWESTERLY TRACK OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS, AS IT BEGINS TO ROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED STR. TS 36W WILL MAINTAIN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS,
AS VWS CONTINUES TO OFFSET THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. AFTER THAT, AND THROUGH
LANDFALL AT TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AS VWS RELAXES AND THE SSTS
PEAK AT NEAR 29 CELSIUS, PEAKING AT 50 KNOTS BY TAU 36 JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL
ALONG THE EASTERN MALAY PENINSULA. MODEL SPREAD HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY TO
170NM AT TAU 72, BUT ALL MODELS AGREE ON THE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK, LEADING
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 36W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN
MORE NORTHWARD AFTER TAU 96, AS IT RECURVES AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE STR. TS 36W WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT CROSSES THE MALAY PENINSULA , BUT
ONCE OVER THE BAY OF BENGAL BY TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL REINTENSIFY TO 45
KNOTS BEFORE RAPIDLY WEAKENING AGAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING VWS, UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG NORTHEAST MONSOONAL FLOW. MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT SPREAD AT TAU 120 OF 430 NM, LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
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Re: WPAC: PABUK - Tropical Storm

#29 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jan 03, 2019 5:13 pm

WDPN31 PGTW 032100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 36W (PABUK) WARNING NR
015//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 36W (PABUK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 308 NM
SOUTHWEST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 031434Z MHS 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING
SYSTEM WITH IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 032031Z GMI 37GHZ
IMAGE ALSO SUGGESTS IMPROVED SHALLOW BANDING OVER THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON
AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.5 (35 KNOTS)
TO T3.0 (45 KNOTS). EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS)
SST IS BEING OFFSET BY MODERATE TO STRONG VWS LIMITING INTENSIFICATION.
THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 36W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 AS
IT ROUNDS THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. THE FORECAST INTENSITY
IS EXPECTED TO REACH A PEAK OF 45 KNOTS BY TAU 12 JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL
AS VWS IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY. SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
DECREASED TO 120NM AT TAU 72, LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION
OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 36W WILL BEGIN TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AS IT RECURVES AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR AND
BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH A DEEP MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. TS 36W WILL
WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO STRONG VWS AND UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH, AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ASSOCIATED WITH
LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY SURGE FLOW. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF JGSI AND AFUI,
THE BULK OF THE DYNAMIC MODEL VORTEX TRACKERS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT,
THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE (LOW UNCERTAINTY) IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: PABUK - Tropical Storm

#30 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Jan 03, 2019 6:48 pm

This is actually a pretty decent system right now with a microwave eye and all.

Image

Image
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Re: WPAC: PABUK - Tropical Storm

#31 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Jan 03, 2019 6:51 pm

With that said, Pabuk is an absolute headache to account for. I'm still not sure whether to classify it with the 2018 systems (since it developed as a JTWC depression and received the 36W identifier in 2018) or with the 2019 systems (since it didn't become a TS and begin accumulating ACE until 2019).
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Re: WPAC: PABUK - Tropical Storm

#32 Postby TyphoonNara » Thu Jan 03, 2019 8:45 pm

1900hurricane wrote:With that said, Pabuk is an absolute headache to account for. I'm still not sure whether to classify it with the 2018 systems (since it developed as a JTWC depression and received the 36W identifier in 2018) or with the 2019 systems (since it didn't become a TS and begin accumulating ACE until 2019).


I am also having a hard time decided that. However, I think most Asian agencies, for example the JMA, HKO, CMA and TMD, identify Pabuk as the 1st 2019 storm.
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Re: WPAC: PABUK - Tropical Storm

#33 Postby TyphoonNara » Thu Jan 03, 2019 8:49 pm

Restrengthened to 40 kts.

Image
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Re: WPAC: PABUK - Tropical Storm

#34 Postby TyphoonNara » Thu Jan 03, 2019 8:49 pm

WDPN31 PGTW 032100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 36W (PABUK) WARNING NR
015//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 36W (PABUK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 308 NM
SOUTHWEST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 031434Z MHS 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING
SYSTEM WITH IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 032031Z GMI 37GHZ
IMAGE ALSO SUGGESTS IMPROVED SHALLOW BANDING OVER THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON
AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.5 (35 KNOTS)
TO T3.0 (45 KNOTS). EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS)
SST IS BEING OFFSET BY MODERATE TO STRONG VWS LIMITING INTENSIFICATION.
THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 36W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 AS
IT ROUNDS THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. THE FORECAST INTENSITY
IS EXPECTED TO REACH A PEAK OF 45 KNOTS BY TAU 12 JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL
AS VWS IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY. SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
DECREASED TO 120NM AT TAU 72, LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION
OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 36W WILL BEGIN TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AS IT RECURVES AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR AND
BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH A DEEP MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. TS 36W WILL
WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO STRONG VWS AND UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH, AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ASSOCIATED WITH
LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY SURGE FLOW. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF JGSI AND AFUI,
THE BULK OF THE DYNAMIC MODEL VORTEX TRACKERS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT,
THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE (LOW UNCERTAINTY) IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: PABUK - Tropical Storm

#35 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jan 03, 2019 9:50 pm

1900hurricane wrote:With that said, Pabuk is an absolute headache to account for. I'm still not sure whether to classify it with the 2018 systems (since it developed as a JTWC depression and received the 36W identifier in 2018) or with the 2019 systems (since it didn't become a TS and begin accumulating ACE until 2019).


It's a crossover system with the 36W identifier so i think this belongs to 2018. :D
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Re: WPAC: PABUK - Tropical Storm

#36 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jan 03, 2019 11:59 pm

50 knots.

WDPN31 PGTW 040300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 36W (PABUK) WARNING NR
016//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 36W (PABUK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 332 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH IMPROVED DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
A 032333Z WINDSAT 37GHZ IMAGE SHOWS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING
INTO A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL
POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT
50 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING
FROM T3.0 (45 KNOTS) TO T3.5 (55 KNOTS). EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW
AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SST IS BEING OFFSET BY MODERATE TO STRONG
VWS LIMITING INTENSIFICATION. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 36W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 72 AS IT ROUNDS THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. THE
FORECAST INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO REACH A PEAK OF 55 KNOTS AT TAU 12
JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL AS VWS IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY. SPREAD
IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS DECREASED TO 80NM AT TAU 72, LENDING TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS PLACED
CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 36W WILL TRACK NORTHWARD AS IT RECURVES AROUND
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR AND BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH A DEEP
MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. TS 36W WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO STRONG
VWS AND UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH, AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY
SURGE FLOW. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF JGSI AND AFUI, THE BULK OF THE DYNAMIC
MODEL VORTEX TRACKERS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE (LOW UNCERTAINTY) IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: PABUK - Tropical Storm

#37 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Fri Jan 04, 2019 12:41 am

The ACE from Pabuk yielded in 2018 goes to 2018, 2019 ACE goes to 2019, regardless of the identifier. If the storm is a TS in both 2018 and 2019, ACE would be split, for example---whatever it makes before 2019 would be in 2018.

If an EPAC or CPAC hurricane crosses the International Date Line, whatever ACE it makes upon entering the WPAC or crossing the 180° mark would go to the WPAC, but the ACE made in the EPAC or CPAC remains in the said basins. Neither would take everything unless the system never reached 35 kts before or after the crossing. It isn't "Winner-takes-All" here...
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Re: WPAC: PABUK - Tropical Storm

#38 Postby TyphoonNara » Fri Jan 04, 2019 12:51 am

xtyphooncyclonex wrote:The ACE from Pabuk yielded in 2018 goes to 2018, 2019 ACE goes to 2019, regardless of the identifier. If the storm is a TS in both 2018 and 2019, ACE would be split, for example---whatever it makes before 2019 would be in 2018.

If an EPAC or CPAC hurricane crosses the International Date Line, whatever ACE it makes upon entering the WPAC or crossing the 180° mark would go to the WPAC, but the ACE made in the EPAC or CPAC remains in the said basins. Neither would take everything unless the system never reached 35 kts before or after the crossing. It isn't "Winner-takes-All" here...


I don't think Pabuk yielded any ACE in 2018. It was still a tropical depression when crossing the calendar years. So all of its ACE belongs to this year.
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Re: WPAC: PABUK - Tropical Storm

#39 Postby euro6208 » Fri Jan 04, 2019 4:08 am

Image

WDPN31 PGTW 040900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 36W (PABUK) WARNING NR
017//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 36W (PABUK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 388 NM WEST
-SOUTHWEST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-ORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING, ALTHOUGH CLOUD TOPS ARE WARMING AS LAND INTERFERES WITH THE
SYSTEM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE ON A
040622Z AMSR-2 89GHZ IMAGE AND EXTRAPOLATED AMBIGUITIES FROM A
040311Z ASCAT PASS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS
BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS, WHICH SHOWS 40-44 KT WIND
BARBS WRAPPED AROUND THE SYSTEM, AND AN AREA OF 45-49 KT WINDS TO
THE NORTHWEST. AN OBSERVATION FROM 45 NM AWAY, ON LAND, RECORDED
30 KT WINDS AND A PRESSURE OF 1005 MB. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS
BETWEEN THE PGTW AND KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
T3.5 (45 KTS) AND A 040308Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 54 KTS. EXCELLENT
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE BEING OFFSET BY MODERATE (15-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
AND LAND INTERACTION LIMITING INTENSIFICATION. THE CYCLONE IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. THE WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED
BASED ON THE 040311Z ASCAT PASS.
B. TS 36W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 AS IT ROUNDS THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE STR. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AFTER IT
PASSES OVER THE MALAY PENINSULA. SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS 160
NM AT TAU 72, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 36W WILL TRACK NORTHWARD AS IT RECURVES AROUND
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR AND BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH A DEEP
MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. TS 36W WILL WEAKEN FURTHER DUE TO
STRONG VWS, WANING DIVERGENCE ALOFT, AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY SURGE FLOW, DISSIPATING BY
TAU 96. NAVGEM MAINTAINS A HIGHER INTENSITY FOR LONGER THAN THE
OTHER MODELS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE (LOW UNCERTAINTY) IN THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: PABUK - Tropical Storm

#40 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Fri Jan 04, 2019 6:11 am

Pabuk made landfall over 'Nakhon Si Thammarat' province in Southern Thailand according to the Thai Met Dept(TMD).

Image
Image
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