SPAC: MONA - Ex-Tropical

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TorSkk
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SPAC: MONA - Ex-Tropical

#1 Postby TorSkk » Sun Dec 30, 2018 1:11 pm

98P INVEST 181230 1200 11.6S 157.5E SHEM 30 999

(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
11.6S 157.5E, APPROXIMATELY 190 NM SOUTHWEST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON
ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 301049Z MHS
METOP-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH
FLARING CONVECTION. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA
OF FAIR UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-30
KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 CELSIUS). GLOBAL
MODELS GENERALLY SHOW AN EASTWARD TRACK WITH POSSIBLE
INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
Last edited by TorSkk on Wed Jan 02, 2019 6:26 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: SPAC: INVEST 98P

#2 Postby TyphoonNara » Mon Dec 31, 2018 9:38 pm

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.9S 161.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.2S 161.8E, APPROXIMATELY
115 NM NORTHEAST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 311412Z AMSR-2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT
A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS 98P IS
LOCATED ON THE EDGE OF MODERATE AND STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-
25 KTS), WHICH IS OFFSET BY RADIAL OUTFLOW FROM A POINT SOURCE
ALOFT. A 311029Z ASCAT METOP-B PARTIAL PASS DEPICTS A DEFINED
CIRCULATION WITH SWATHS OF 25-30 KNOT WINDS LOCATED NORTH AND SOUTH
OF THE CURRENT POSITION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM (28-30
CELSIUS) AND CONDUCIVE FOR FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE WITH AN EASTERN TRAJECTORY FOR THE FIRST 24-48
HOURS, THEN TURN THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD AFTERWARD. MODELS INDICATE
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING FOR 98P AS A DISCRETE SYSTEM, THEN A POSSIBLE
MERGER WITH THE CURRENT INVEST 94P TO ITS EAST AS BOTH SYSTEMS TURN
SOUTHWARD LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
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Re: SPAC: INVEST 98P

#3 Postby TyphoonNara » Mon Dec 31, 2018 9:39 pm

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Re: SPAC: 04F - Tropical Depression (98P)

#4 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Jan 01, 2019 10:23 pm

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Re: SPAC: 04F - Tropical Depression (98P)

#5 Postby TorSkk » Wed Jan 02, 2019 9:51 am

(3) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.0S 170.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.1S 175.6E, APPROXIMATELY 920
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 020433Z SSMIS F-16 91GHZ MHS
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A SMALL AREA WITH FORMATIVE BANDING FEATURES
WRAPPING INTO A CENTRAL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED OVER A LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS 98P IS LOCATED
IN AN AREA OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25-30 KTS), WHICH IS
OFFSET BY RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE REMAINS WARM
(30-31 CELSIUS) AND CONDUCIVE FOR FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE WITH AN EASTWARD TRAJECTORY FOR THE FIRST 12-24
HOURS FOLLOWED BY A FAIRLY SHARP SOUTHWARD TURN WITH GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28
TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
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Re: SPAC: MONA - Tropical Cyclone

#6 Postby TorSkk » Wed Jan 02, 2019 6:32 pm

TROPICAL CYCLONE MONA CENTRE 994HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.4S 177.3E AT
022100 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL
SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT 16 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 35 KNOTS.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT WITH PRIMARY BANDS TRYING TO WRAP
AROUND LLCC. ORGANISATION GOOD. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO
500HPA. OUTFLOW GOOD. SYSTEM LIES JUST SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE WITH
GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 29
DEGREES CELSIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.65 WRAP YIEDS DT=3.0. PT
AND MT AGREE. THUS, YIELDING T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS.
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Re: SPAC: MONA - Tropical Cyclone

#7 Postby gigabite » Sat Jan 05, 2019 9:45 am

Image
January New Moon path to cross MONA
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Re: SPAC: MONA - Tropical Cyclone

#8 Postby TorSkk » Sat Jan 05, 2019 10:13 am

Mona has comlepted a cyclonic loop and weakened to Cat 1

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Re: SPAC: MONA - Tropical Cyclone

#9 Postby gigabite » Sat Jan 05, 2019 10:37 am

Image
The system mass is within 7 degrees Latitude of todays pass. The images are 1 hour and 25 minutes apart, at that rate it might be hard to see a wobble from a movement.

The moons transit 0:10 utc, should be 7:10 Eastern time.
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Re: SPAC: MONA - Tropical Cyclone

#10 Postby gigabite » Sat Jan 05, 2019 5:30 pm

Image
Saturday Afternoon Pre transit.
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Re: SPAC: MONA - Tropical Cyclone

#11 Postby gigabite » Sat Jan 05, 2019 8:27 pm

Image
Okay so this is the animation just before, and around the time of the pass.
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Re: SPAC: MONA - Tropical Cyclone

#12 Postby gigabite » Sat Jan 05, 2019 8:50 pm

Image
This is just after the pass.
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Re: SPAC: MONA - Ex-Tropical

#13 Postby gigabite » Mon Jan 07, 2019 8:37 pm

Image
This is the 01/07/19 Moon Pass at 01:00 UTC. 20 minutes after the pass there is an anomaly on the upper cloud layer 135 kilometers north east of the Moon's position at 01:00 UTC.
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Re: SPAC: MONA - Ex-Tropical

#14 Postby gigabite » Mon Jan 07, 2019 9:20 pm

Image
This is a still of the 01/07/2019 01:20 image. The mass of the storm has to be large enough to identify the evidence of the earth/moon/sun alignment. The earth is rotating so fast that the event happens in a blink of an eye.
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