SPAC: 05F - Dissipated

[TorSkk]

99P INVEST 190101 0600 9.0S 171.6E SHEM 20 999

(3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.5S
170.5E, APPROXIMATELY 513 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT VILLA, VANAUTU.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 010445Z SSMIS F-16
91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS FLARING CONVECTION WITH LIMITED
CIRCULATION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS INVEST 99P IS LOCATED WITHIN
FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-20 KTS) AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM (28-30 CELSIUS) AND CONDUCIVE
FOR FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE WITH A
SOUTHEASTERN TRAJECTORY WITH A POSSIBLE MERGER WITH INVEST 98P IN 24-
48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[TorSkk]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD05F CENTER 998HPA WAS ANALYSED NEAR 10.7S
171.7E AT 010600UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 EIR IMAGERY
AND PERIPEHRAL SURFACE REPORTS. TD04F IS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 10
KNOTS.

DEEP CONVECTION LIES TO THE NORTH OF THE SUPPOSED LLCC AND REMAINS
PERSISTENT WITH GOOD ORGANISATION. SYSTEM LIES IN A DIFFLUENT REGION
WITH GOOD OUTFLOW TO THE EAST IN A LOW-MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
SST IS AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND GRADUALLY MOVE IT
EASTWARDS AND THEN IN A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION WITH SOME
INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.

[TorSkk]

(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.9S 175.8E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.