SWIO: DESMOND - Post-Tropical

[TyphoonNara]

92S INVEST 190119 0000 22.8S 37.0E SWIO 25 1001

[TyphoonNara]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 21.8S 36.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.8S 37.0E, APPROXIMATELY 220
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BEIRA, MOZAMBIQUE. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH A LARGE AREA
OF FLARING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED,
ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE UPPER LEVEL (UL) ENVIRONMENT IS
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE, WITH LOW VWS (5-15KTS) OVER THE SYSTEM CENTER
BUT INCREASING SHARPLY TO THE SOUTH AND NORTHEAST. VWS IS OFFSET BY
STRONG UL DIVERGENCE DUE TO DEFINED POLEWARD AND WEAK EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNELS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE (28-30C)
IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE SYSTEM WILL CONSOLIDATE FURTHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT
TAKES A MEANDERING NORTHWARD TRACK ALONG THE MOZAMBICAN COAST.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

[TyphoonNara]

[TorSkk]

THE SURFACE CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINED EXPOSED IN THE NORTH-EAST OF
THE RESIDUAL CONVECTION LAST NIGHT. OVER THE LAST 2 HOURS, A STRONG
CONVECTIVE BURST HAS TRIGGERED IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, LESS
THAN 30 NM AWAY FROM THE CENTER. ON THE LAST AVAILABLE SAT IMAGES, THE
CENTER REMAINS VISIBLE IN THE NORTH-EASTERN BORDER OF THE CONVECTION.
GIVEN THIS TEMPORARY IMPROVEMENT OF THE SAT PRESENTATION AND THE LAST
MODEL ANALYSIS AVAILABLE, THE SYSTEM IS STILL ESTIMATED TO BE AT THE
MINIMAL MODERATE TROPICAL STORM STAGE.
THE UPPER CONSTRAINT VEERED EASTERLY AT THE END OF LAST NIGHT, WITH NO
REAL WEAKENING. WITH STILL A VERY DRY ENVIRONMENT IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE, THE CONVECTION SHOULD NOT MANAGE TO RELOCATE OVER THE
CENTER AND DESMOND SHOULD LOOSE ITS STORM STATUS BEFORE ITS LANDING
ON THE MOZAMBICAN COASTS. WITH A VERY ASYMMETRIC WIND DISTRIBUTION
(STRONG WINDS ARE ONLY LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE), GALE
FORCE SHOULD ONLY BE REACHED LOCALLY WEST OF THE LANDING POINT.
WITH A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING IN THE SOUTH, DESMOND IS CURRENTLY
ACCELERATING ON A NORTH-NORTH-WESTERLY TRACK AND SHOULD LAND ON
THE QUELIMANE REGION TONIGHT. THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON
A CONSENSUS OF THE LAST MODEL RUNS AVAILABLE.
EVEN IF A WEAKER SYSTEM THAN ANTICIPATED IS TRACKING CLOSER TO THE
MOZAMBICAN COASTLINES, A SENSIBLE DETERIORATION OF THE
METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS IS AWAITED MAINLY ON THE COASTAL REGIONS
LOCATED WEST OF THE TRACK (BETWEEN THE CITIES OF BEIRA AND QUELIMANE).
THE WINDS BLOWING FROM THE SEA ARE REACHING NEAR GALE AND LOCALLY
GALE FORCE. HOWEVER, THEY SHOULD ONLY CAUSE A SLIGHT ELEVATION OF THE
SEA LEVEL (LESS THAN 1M).

[TyphoonNara]

There are some pretty cold CDG and CMG cloud tops.