SPAC: Neil - Post-Tropical

[Nancy Smar]

SH, 91, 2019020712,   , BEST,   0,  90S, 1769E,  15, 1010, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,   0,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST,  ,
SH, 91, 2019020718,   , BEST,   0,  97S, 1774E,  15, 1010, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,   0,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST,  ,
SH, 91, 2019020800,   , BEST,   0, 104S, 1779E,  15, 1010, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,   0,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST,  ,
SH, 91, 2019020806,   , BEST,   0, 110S, 1784E,  15, 1010, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,   0,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST,  ,

[Nancy Smar]

WTPS11 NFFN 090000
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A2 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 090146 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD07F CENTRE 996HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4S 176.5W
AT 090000 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI-8 EIR AND VIS
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. TD07F MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
ABOUT 15 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS.
DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT. ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED IN THE
PAST 6 TO 12 HOURS. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 500HPA. SYSTEM
LIES IN LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG UPPER
DIVERGENCE. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE EAST. SST AROUND 30 TO 31 DEGREES
CELCIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.40 WRAP YIELDS DT=2.5. PT AND MET
AGREE. FT BASED ON DT. THUS, YIELDING T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHEAST WITH
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS IS HIGH.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 091200 UTC 18.1S 176.0W MOV SSE AT 10 KT WITH 40
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 100000 UTC 20.2S 175.3W MOV SSE AT 10 KT WITH 45
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 101200 UTC 22.5S 174.5W MOV SSE AT 12 KT WITH 45
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 110000 UTC 25.1S 173.7W MOV SSE AT 13 KT WITH 45
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07F
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 090800 UTC.

[Nancy Smar]

SH, 91, 2019020900, , BEST, 0, 161S, 1777W, 35, 996, SS, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1002, 240, 100, 0, 0, P, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

Subtropical storm.

[Nancy Smar]

FKPS01 NFFN 090455
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20190209/0400Z
TCAC: NFFN
TC: NEIL
NR: 01
PSN: S1712 W17554
MOV: SSE 15KT
C: 994HPA
MAX WIND: 35KT
FCST PSN +6HR: 09/1000 S1800 W17518
FCST MAX WIND +6HR: 40KT
FCST PSN +12HR: 09/1600 S1854 W17454
FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 45KT
FCST PSN +18HR: 09/2200 S1948 W17436
FCST MAX WIND +18HR: 45KT
FCST PSN +24HR: 10/0400 S2042 W17418
FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 45KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20190209/0700Z

[vortextracker]

Fiji time is UTC +12 hours.
For example, 0000 UTC Saturday is 1200 Saturday Fiji time.
For example, 1800 UTC Saturday is 0600 Sunday Fiji time.

Category Cyclone 1 has mean winds 34-47 knots with a central pressure greater than 985 hPa
Category Cyclone 2 has mean winds 48-63 knots with a central pressure 985-970 hPa
Category Cyclone 3 has mean winds 64-85 knots with a central pressure 970-945 hPa
Category Cyclone 4 has mean winds 86-107 knots with a central pressure 945-910 hPa
Category Cyclone 5 has mean winds greater than 107 knots with a central pressure less than 910 hPa

http://www.met.gov.fj

[Nancy Smar]

SH, 14, 2019020918, , BEST, 0, 209S, 1749W, 35, 996, TS, 34, NEQ, 150, 125, 45, 130, 1002, 170, 35, 0, 0, P, 0, , 0, 0, NEIL, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, TRANSITIONED, shD12019 to sh142019,

[vortextracker]

Was a sheared exposed junk storm.