SPAC: POLA - Post-Tropical

[TorSkk]

95P INVEST 190223 0600 10.9S 175.0W SHEM 20 1002

[Nancy Smar]

ABPW10 PGTW 231430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/231430Z-240600ZFEB2019//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/230752ZFEB2019//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 230600Z, TYPHOON 02W (WUTIP) WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.4N
143.2E, APPROXIMATELY 170 NM SOUTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, AND
HAD TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 115 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 140 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 230900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
10.1S 175.0W, APPROXIMATELY 460 NM NORTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN
SAMOA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 230901Z
MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A VERY BROAD CIRCULATION WITH FLARING
CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE NORTH. A 230937Z ASCAT-C PASS SHOWS A
BROAD AREA OF TURNING WITH PRIMARILY 20 KNOT WINDS AND HIGHER WINDS
DISPLACED TO THE NORTH. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN
AREA OF GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (20-30 KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30
CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL
INTENSIFY TO WARNING CRITERIA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES SOUTH INTO AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) AS A LOW.//
NNNN

[Nancy Smar]

WWPS21 NFFN 232100
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 232311 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD11F CENTRE [1002HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 08.8S
176.2W AT 232100 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 IR IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATION. TD11F IS SLOW MOVING.

CONVECTION LIES TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SUPPOSED LLCC WITH POOR
ORGANISATION. SYSTEM LIES TO THE EAST OF AN UPPER OUTFLOW CENTRE IN
DIFFLUENT FLOW AND LOW SHEAR. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO
700HPA. SST IS AROUND 30 DEGREES CELCIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHWARDS WITH
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THE THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW-MODERATE.

[TorSkk]

The system has been named Pola

[TorSkk]

Quite unexpectedly, it's entered a phase of rapid intensification

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (POLA)

B. 26/2050Z

C. 18.82S

D. 176.78W

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T4.0/4.0/D2.5/24HRS STT: D1.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 11A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. MG EYE SURROUNDED BY LG
YIELDS AN E# AND DT (NO EYE ADJUSTMENT) OF 5.0. MET YIELD A 3.0
AND PT YIELD A 4.0. DBO PT. BROKE CONSTRAINT OF 0.5 T-NUMBER
CHANGE OVER 6HRS DUE TO RI.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
26/1532Z 17.62S 176.05W SSMS
26/1745Z 18.13S 176.38W SSMS

[TyphoonNara]

Now expecting to peak at 70 knots.

[TyphoonNara]

Some pretty cold convections right there.

[TorSkk]

Looking great, major very possible

TPPS12 PGTW 271508

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (POLA)

B. 27/1430Z

C. 20.97S

D. 177.96W

E. ONE/HMWRI8

F. T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 05A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. B EYE SURROUNDED BY W
YIELDS AN E# OF 6.0. SUBTRACTED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG TO
YIELD A DT OF 5.5. MET 4.0 PT 4.5 DBO PT

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


MILAM

[TyphoonNara]

16P POLA
As of 06:00 UTC Feb 28, 2019:

Location: 23.4°S 178.0°W
Maximum Winds: 95 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 956 mb

[TyphoonNara]

TPPS12 PGTW 280643 COR

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (POLA)

B. 28/0601Z

C. 23.40S

D. 177.99W

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T5.5/5.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 11A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. LG EYE SURROUNDED BY B
YIELDS AN E# AND DT (NO EYE ADJUSTMENT) OF 5.5. MET/PT AGREE.
DBO DT. COR FOR LAT/LONG

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


MARTIN

[TorSkk]

Now a category 4 on aus scale

[TorSkk]

STORM WARNING 012
THIS AFFECTS OCEAN AREAS: SUBTROPIC AND PACIFIC
TROPICAL CYCLONE POLA 980HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.3 SOUTH
177.3 WEST AT 011200 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 28.3S 177.3W AT 011200 UTC.
CYCLONE IS MOVING SOUTHSOUTHEAST 10 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 55 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE EASING TO 50
KNOTS BY 020000 UTC AND THEN EASING TO 45 KNOTS BY 021200 UTC WITH
HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEA AND MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELL EASING.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE
SECTOR FROM NORTH THROUGH EAST TO WEST AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES
OF CENTRE IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN
THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AND WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN
THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN
THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT WITH VERY ROUGH SEA AND MODERATE TO HEAVY
SWELL.
FORECAST POSITION NEAR 29.2S 174.8W AT 020000 UTC
AND NEAR 28.5S 170.8W AT 021200 UTC.
THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 011.