SIO: IDAI - Post-Tropical

[TorSkk]

[TyphoonNara]

SATCON puts it into near Cat 4 territory.

CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (mmddhhmm): 03111058
SATCON: MSLP = 951 hPa MSW = 113 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 111.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 105 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 185 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is 2.9 knots Source: IR

Member Estimates

ADT: 945 hPa 120 knots Scene: CDO Date: MAR111315
CIMSS AMSU: 999 hPa 48 knots Bias Corr: 0 (MW) Date: 03090615
ATMS: 955.5 hPa 102.4 knots Date: 03111058
SSMIS: 955.5 hPa 102.4 knots Date: 03111058
CIRA ATMS: 972 hPa 84 knots Date: 03102227

[TyphoonNara]

[TorSkk]

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/11/20182019

1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (IDAI)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/11 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.9 S / 42.5 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.5/S 0.0/18 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 958 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 200 SE: 190 SW: 220 NW: 200
34 KT NE: 160 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 160
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SW: 90 NW: 90
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 500 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/12 06 UTC: 18.5 S / 42.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2019/03/12 18 UTC: 19.2 S / 41.4 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2019/03/13 06 UTC: 19.6 S / 40.1 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2019/03/13 18 UTC: 19.8 S / 39.0 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2019/03/14 06 UTC: 19.9 S / 37.8 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2019/03/14 18 UTC: 19.8 S / 36.7 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/03/15 18 UTC: 18.8 S / 35.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
120H: 2019/03/16 18 UTC: 18.0 S / 35.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.0 CI=5.5

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE IDAI'S EYE HAS DETERIORATED AND THE
CONVECTION IS WARMER TOO. IN THIS PATTERN, THE DVORAK ANALYSIS IS SEEN
DOWNWARDS LEAVING A WIND ESTIMATE OF AROUND 90KT, AT THE THRESHOLD OF
AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE LAST MICROWAVE IMAGES OF 1533UTC
SHOW A BEGINNING OF THE REPLACEMENT CYCLE OF THE EYE WALL. THIS HELPS
TO LIMIT THE IDAI'S INTENSITY, AS WELL AS THE ENERGY POTENTIAL OF THE
OCEAN, WHICH HAS BEEN WELL CONSUMED DUE TO THE SLOW DISPLACEMENT OF
THE SYSTEM.

IDAI MAINTAIN A TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE STRENGTHENING
INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED IN THE SOUTH-WEST. FROM
WEDNESDAY, THE TRACK SHOULD BEND WESTWARD. THE MAJORITY OF THE
AVAILABLE MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THAT THIS TURN COULD CONTINUE ON
THURSDAY, GIVING A NORTH-WESTWARD MOTION TO IDAI AT THE MOMENT OF ITS
IMPACT ON THE MOZAMBICAN COASTS. THE TIMING AND LOCALISATION OF THE
IMPACT THUS REMAIN RELATIVELY UNCERTAIN. LATER, MOST MODELS OFFER A
RETURN TO SEA OF THE LOWLEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION THAT COULD
INTENSIFY AGAIN.

ON THIS TRACK, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR THE
SYSTEM, WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS IT PASSES OVER AN OCEANIC GYRE CONCENTRATING HIGH
ENERGY CONTENT, BASED ON DATA FROM THE PSY4 OCEAN MODEL OF
MERCATOR-OCEAN. HOWEVER, EVIDENCE OF A CYCLE OF EYE WALL
REPLACEMENT SUGGESTS A TEMPORARY WEAKENING OF IDAI'S INTENSITY OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER THE SYSTEM TRACKS UNDER THE AXIS OF AN UPPER
RIDGE AND THUS BENEFITS FROM A GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE, SO ITS
INTENSIFICATION WILL BE ABLE TO RESUME DURING THE NIGHT FROM
WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY. IDAI SHOULD LAND AT THE INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE STAGE.

IDAI SHOULD BE A VERY DANGEROUS STORM AT THE TIME OF ITS LANDING, WHICH
IS STILL FORECASTED ON FRIDAY ON THE MOZAMBICAN COASTLINE BETWEEN
BEIRA AND QUELIMANE APPROXIMATELY. THE FIRST STORM SURGE ESTIMATIONS
EXCEED 6M OVER THE ZAMBEZE'S DELTA AND ARE CLOSE TO 4M AROUND BEIRA
AND QUELIMANE. TO THIS, WE MUST ADD A CYCLONIC SWELL ALREADY PRESENT
ON THE MALAGASY AND AFRICAN COASTS WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO GROW.
SATELLITE WAVE MEASUREMENTS CURRENTLY PROVIDE VALUES OF MORE THAN
7M (I.E. MAXIMUM HEIGHTS OF NEARLY 12M) NEAR IDAI. WAVES OF 12 METRES ARE
EXPECTED ON THE MOZAMBICAN COASTS DURING LANDING, REACHING
MAXIMUM HEIGHTS OF 20 METRES.

[TorSkk]

So far, this season has seen 11 tropical storms, 7 of which reached Tropical Cyclone intensity. All of those 7 TCs further intensified into ITCs, breaking the previous record of 6.

[TorSkk]

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/11/20182019

1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (IDAI)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/12 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.8 S / 41.2 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY ONE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 965 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 15 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 260 SW: 260 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 170 SE: 190 SW: 160 NW: 180
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 80 SW: 60 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1000 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/13 00 UTC: 19.3 S / 40.2 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2019/03/13 12 UTC: 19.6 S / 39.0 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2019/03/14 00 UTC: 19.8 S / 37.7 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2019/03/14 12 UTC: 19.6 S / 36.3 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2019/03/15 00 UTC: 19.4 S / 35.2 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2019/03/15 12 UTC: 18.8 S / 34.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.0+ CI=5.0+

THE EYE FEATURES OF IDAI HAS IMPROVED THIS AFTERNOON WITH A BETTER
DEFINED EYE ON VIS IMAGERY AND ASSOCIATED WITH COLDER CLOUD TOPS ON
EIR IMAGERY. THE FINAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES
WHICH ARE ALL AGREE ON A CI AT 5.0. WITH NO RECENT MW IMAGERY AVAILABLE,
IT IS NOT POSSIBLE TO ASSESS THE ERC PROCESS, BUT CLASSICAL IMAGERY
SUGGEST THAT THE ONGOING STRENGTHENING TREND STILL COME FROM THE
INNER EYEWALL.

IDAI MAINTAIN A SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK THAT IS EXPECTED TO BEND
GRADUALLY WESTWARDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE STRENGTHENING
INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH-WEST OF THE
SYSTEM. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN THE TRACK FORECAST AND IT IS NOW
ESTIMATED THAT THERE IS 3 CHANCES OUT OF 4 THAT THE CENTER WILL CROSS
THE MOZAMBICAN COAST BETWEEN CHINDE TO THE NORTH AND CHILOANE TO
THE SOUTH INCLUDING THE BEIRA AREA. THIS WILL HAPPEN THURSDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE
CONDUCIVE TO SUPPORT AN INTENSE SYSTEM UNTIL LANDFALL, THE INTENSITY
FORECAST REMAINS CHALLENGING DUE TO THE ONGOING INNER CORE PROCESS.
MIMIC PRECIPITABLE WATER FROM CIMSS SHOW SOME DRY AIR WRAPPING OVER
THE EASTERN OUTER CIRCULATION BUT WITH VERY LOW SHEAR OR MID-SHEAR
EXPECTED THIS DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OUTSIDE THE INNER CORE.
THE GENERAL PHILOSOPHY REMAINS THAT IDAI IS EXPECTED TO REGAIN
STRENGTH AND BE AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT WILL NEAR THE
MOZAMBIQUE COAST IN 48-60 HOURS. MAXIMUM INTENSITY INTENSITY AT 105 KT
IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN INTENSITY CONSENSUS GUIDANCE (ICNW) AT 85-90 KT
AND AROME FRENCH MODEL THAT BRING THE SYSTEM TO 120-125 KT TOMORROW.

IDAI SHOULD BE A VERY DANGEROUS STORM AT THE TIME OF ITS LANDFALL AND
INHABITANTS FROM THE EXPECTED LANDFALL AREA ARE URGED TO FOLLOW
OFFICIAL RECOMMENDATIONS AND MONITOR PRODUCT FROM THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICES OF MOZAMBIQUE. DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, EXCEEDING 3
METERS ARE LIKELY WHERE AND JUST TO THE SOUTH OF WHERE THE CENTER WILL
MAKE LANDFALL. ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, STORM SURGE IN THE
BEIRA AREA MAY REACH 1M50-2M (CAUTION: THIS VALUE DOES NOT TAKE INTO
ACCOUNT THE TIDE AND THE SEA LEVEL RISE DUE TO THE CYCLONIC SWELL)

[TorSkk]

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/11/20182019

1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (IDAI)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/12 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.1 S / 40.7 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 965 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 11 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 260 SW: 260 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 170 SE: 190 SW: 160 NW: 180
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 80 SW: 60 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1000 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: NIL

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/13 06 UTC: 19.5 S / 39.7 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/03/13 18 UTC: 19.8 S / 38.4 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2019/03/14 06 UTC: 19.9 S / 37.0 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2019/03/14 18 UTC: 19.8 S / 35.7 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2019/03/15 06 UTC: 19.4 S / 34.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
72H: 2019/03/15 18 UTC: 18.5 S / 33.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.0+

THE LAST MW IMAGES AVAILABLE (1309Z AND 1522Z SSMIS, 1515Z WINDSAT) ALLOW
THE MONITORING OF THE LENGHTY EVOLUTION OF THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
CYCLE (ERC). AS THE INNER EYEWALL REMAINS SOLID AND SEEMS TO BE THE
MAIN MOTOR OF THE IMPROVEMENTS IN THE IR SAT PRESENTATION OVER THE
LAST 12H, THE OUTER EYEWALL FINALLY CLOSED ITS WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND
BEGAN TO CONTRACT. THE INNER EYEWALL SHOULD THUS DISAPPEAR OVERNIGHT
AND THIS ERC COULD BE COMPLETED BY TOMORROW MORNING.

IDAI MAINTAINS A SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK THAT IS EXPECTED TO BEND
GRADUALLY WESTWARDS FROM TOMORROW WITH THE STRENGTHENING
INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH-WEST OF THE
SYSTEM. CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS GOOD, AS THE MODEL
DISPERSION IS LOW. THERE ARE APPROXIMATELY 3 CHANCES OUT OF 4 FOR THE
LANDFALL POINT ON THE MOZAMBICAN COAST TO BE BETWEEN CHINDE IN THE
NORTH AND CHILOANE IN THE SOUTH, INCLUDING BEIRA'S AREA. THE LANDFALL
SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE
AND ABLE TO SUPPORT AN INTENSE SYSTEM UNTIL LANDFALL, THE INTENSITY
FORECAST REMAINS CHALLENGING DUE TO THE ONGOING INNER CORE
PROCESSES. MIMIC PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY FROM CIMSS SHOWS SOME DRY
AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE EASTERN OUTER CIRCULATION BUT WITH VERY LOW
SHEAR OR MID-SHEAR EXPECTED, THIS DRY AIR SHOULD REMAIN OUTSIDE THE
INNER CORE.
IDAI IS EXPECTED TO REGAIN ITS INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS AS IT
NEARS THE MOZAMBIQUE COAST IN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM INTENSITY
HAS BEEN INCREASED AT 115 KT TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE LAST INTENSITY
GUIDANCE RUNS, THIS REPRESENTS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE ICNW DATA AT
95-100 KT AND THE FRENCH FINESCALE MODEL AROME THAT BRINGS THE SYSTEM
TO 120-130 KT TOMORROW.

IDAI SHOULD BE A VERY DANGEROUS STORM AT THE TIME OF ITS LANDFALL AND
THE INHABITANTS OF THE EXPECTED LANDFALL AREA ARE URGED TO FOLLOW
OFFICIAL RECOMMENDATIONS AND MONITOR THE INFORMATION ISSUED BY THE
MOZAMBICAN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. DANGEROUS STORM SURGE,
EXCEEDING 3 METERS ARE LIKELY AT THE POINT OF LANDFALL AND TO ITS SOUTH.
ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, STORM SURGE IN THE BEIRA AREA MAY
REACH 2M (CAUTION: THIS VALUE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE TIDE AND
THE SEA LEVEL RISE DUE TO THE CYCLONIC SWELL)

[TorSkk]

[WAcyclone]

Interesting microwave image of the EWRC which is currently ongoing:

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1105817082564890624

[WAcyclone]

This is quite a drastic warning issued by Météo-France for the Beira area (pop. 500k). It looks like some places could experience a storm surge of up to 8 m (26 ft):

IDAI IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SYSTEM AND SHOULD REMAIN SO AT
LANDFALL. THE INHABITANTS OF THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO FOLLOW
OFFICIAL RECOMMENDATIONS AND MONITOR THE INFORMATION ISSUED BY THE
MOZAMBICAN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE,
EXCEEDING 3 METERS IS LIKELY SOUTH OF THE LANDFALL. IF THE CURRENT
TRACK IS CONFIRMED, THE SURGE COULD BECOME MUCH MORE IMPORTANT ON
BEIRA AREA, WHICH IS SOUTH OF THE LANDFALL. POTENTIALLY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE HIGH TIDE, THE SURGE COULD REACH 4M ON THE COASTLINE AND 7 TO 8M IN
THE PUNGWE RIVER MOUTH (CAUTION: THIS VALUE DOES NOT TAKE INTO
ACCOUNT THE TIDE AND THE SEA LEVEL RISE DUE TO THE CYCLONIC SWELL).

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/La_Reunion/webcmrs9.0/anglais/activiteope/bulletins/cmrs/CMRSA_201903131200_IDAI.pdf

[Dave C]

Eyewall replacement cycle has completed. Cloud tops aren't very cold yet, next 24 hrs will be interesting indeed.

[Kingarabian]

Very dire situation. EWRC completing just before landfall.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1106174647693828097

[TorSkk]

Likely a major disaster with the cyclone striking Beira directly

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 25/11/20182019
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (IDAI)
2.A POSITION 2019/03/14 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.8 S / 35.6 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY FIVE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 6 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.5/D 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 955 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 280 SW: 260 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SW: 190 NW: 190
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 130
64 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 90
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/15 06 UTC: 19.4 S / 34.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
24H: 2019/03/15 18 UTC: 18.5 S / 32.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.0- CI=5.5
IDAI CLOUD PATTERN IMPROVED OVER THE LAST HOUR WITH A MUCH COLDER
CONVECTIVE BELT AROUND THE EYE. DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE AROUND 5.0
WHETHER THE SIZE OF THE EYE IS TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT. GIVEN THIS TREND,
INTENSITY WAS MAINTAINED TO 90KT.

TODAY MICROWAVE DATA, SHOW THAT A SECOND EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE
HAD STARTED LATE LAST NIGHT, WHICH COULD EXPLAIN THE WEAKENING PHASE.
SINCE, THE OUTER EYEWALL ENTERED INLAND IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT. THE CYCLE PROBABLY STOPPED WHILE INTERRACTING WITH THE
LANDMASS, AND SO HELPED PARTIALLY AT LEAST IN THE VISUAL IMPROVEMENT.
A 18Z, IDAI CENTER IS LOCATED 75KM EAST OF BEIRA. AND THE COASTLINE 40KM
NORTH OF BEIRA ENTERED THE EYE. THE CYCLONE STARTED TO BEND
WEST-NORTH-WESTWARD AND IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THAT DIRECTION WHILE
MOVING INLAND.

IDAI IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TROPICAL CYCLONE . THE INHABITANTS OF
THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO FOLLOW OFFICIAL RECOMMENDATIONS
AND MONITOR THE INFORMATION ISSUED BY THE MOZAMBICAN NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

WITH THE CHANGE OF DIRECTION, WETS-NORTH-WESTWARDS, THE WORST CASE
SCENARIO IS VERY LIKELY. LAST FORECAST STILL SUGGEST A LIFE-THREATENING
STORM SURGE UP TO 3M50-4M ON THE COASTLINE AND MORE THAN 6M IN THE
PUNGWE RIVER MOUTH (CAUTION: THIS VALUE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT
THE TIDE AND THE WATER RISE FROM THE CYCLONIC SWELL). THIS PEAK WILL
PROBABLY BE ASSOCIATED WITH HE HIGH TIDE LATER TONIGHT.

[doomhaMwx]

Making landfall...

[doomhaMwx]

Lots of rainfall for central Mozambique and large parts of Zimbabwe.

[WAcyclone]

Idai has now made landfall just north of Beira. It looks like the city is going through the southern part of the eye:

[galaxy401]

Already over 100 deaths reported from this cyclone. That and the forecasted rainfall looks very bad over there. Surprised there isn't more discussion on this storm.

[mrbagyo]

Storm surge must be really bad in Beira.
They got the powerful left front quadrant of Idai.
The shape of the coastline, the relatively shallow bathymetry and presence of a river mouth further amplifies the surge