SPAC: TREVOR - Post-Tropical

[Cunxi Huang]

ERC undergoing.

[Hayabusa]

Euro explodes this to 918 mb and look to the left side another potentially strong TC formation currently 95S

[Hayabusa]

OHC in its track after the first landfall is >=100 kJ/cm^2, and high SSTs potentially becoming a cat 5

[Hayabusa]

WTPS31 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TREVOR) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TREVOR) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 12.9S 144.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.9S 144.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 13.1S 143.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 13.2S 142.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 13.2S 141.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 13.3S 140.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 13.6S 139.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 14.9S 137.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 16.8S 134.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 13.0S 144.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P (TREVOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 802 NM EAST
OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 20P HAS UNDERGONE EXTREME RAPID
INTENSIFICATION (RI) OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS INCREASING FROM 35 KNOTS
TO THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS (A 55 KNOT INCREASE). ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND WEIPA RADAR IMAGERY DEPICT
SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A COMPACT CORE WITH A 12NM EYE. TRACK
MOTION HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT ERRATIC OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, HOWEVER,
THERE IS EXCELLENT CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 90 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90 KNOTS) FROM KNES AND PGTW; ABRF IS AT A T4.5
DUE TO CONSTRAINTS BUT ALSO MEASURED A DT5.0). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES RADIAL OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY THE WESTERLIES TO THE SOUTH,
AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 20P IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 48 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL TURN
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THEN SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE STR SHIFTS EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM AND REORIENTS AS A DEEP MIDLATITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A LARGE SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AND
HIGH UNCERTAINTY PRIMARILY DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE
TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN TRACK SPEEDS. THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK FAVORS THE ECMWF DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION AND THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE SOLUTION BUT IS POSITIONED SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. TC 20P IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT
CROSSES THE CAPE YORK PENINSULA BUT IS EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY OVER
THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA AFTER TAU 36. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
UNDERGO RI AFTER TAU 48 DUE TO VERY WARM SST (30-32C), HIGH OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT VALUES, FAVORABLE OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
AFTER TAU 96, TC 20P WILL MAKE LANDFALL, TRACK INLAND AND STEADILY
WEAKEN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 190300Z, 190900Z, 191500Z AND 192100Z.//
NNNN

[mrbagyo]

Looks like we have a landfall

[WAcyclone]

Lockhart River (25 km NW of landfall point) is currently measuring 10-minute sustained winds of 45 kt (83 km/h) gusting to 72 kt (133 km/h). Pressure 981.5 hpa.

[doomhaMwx]

Trevor will soon emerge into the GoC. Things are really about to get more interesting.

[euro6208]

Land interaction took it's toll.

[euro6208]

Now only expecting a Cat 1 landfall...

WTPS31 PGTW 210900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TREVOR) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TREVOR) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210600Z --- NEAR 13.3S 141.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.3S 141.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 13.9S 140.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 14.5S 139.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 15.4S 137.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 16.8S 136.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 20.6S 135.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 23.6S 138.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
210900Z POSITION NEAR 13.4S 141.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P (TREVOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 228 NM
SOUTHWEST OF WEIPA, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS STRUGGLING TO CONSOLIDATE AS IT
SLOWLY DRIFTS IN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA (GOC) AFTER IT EXITED FROM
THE CAPE YORK PENINSULA. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) HAS BECOME
RAGGED AND MORE ENLARGED BUT REMAINS INTACT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON A MORE COMPACT LLC IN THE
210606Z SSMIS NEAR-SURFACE 37GHZ COLORIZED MICROWAVE IMAGE THAT FIT
INSIDE THE LLC FEATURES IN THE MSI ANIMATION AND COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP
FROM WEIPA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45KTS IS BASED ON THE DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF T3.5/45KTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES LOW (5-10KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), STRONG RADIAL
OUTFLOW, AND VERY WARM (32C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE GOC. THE
CYCLONE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE GOC UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST, MAKING
LANDFALL NEAR BORROLOOLA AROUND TAU 42. AFTERWARD, THE TC WILL
TURN SOUTH THEN SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE AUSTRALIAN OUTBACK AS THE STR
RECEDES EASTWARD. THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN THE GOC WILL INTENSIFY
THE SYSTEM UP TO 85 KNOTS BY TAU 36. AFTERWARD, LAND INTERACTION AND
INCREASING VWS WILL RAPIDLY ERODE AND DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE BY TAU
96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING FAIR
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 211500Z, 212100Z,
220300Z AND 220900Z.//
NNNN

[1900hurricane]

Some of the recent JTWC intensity forecasts are going to bust low badly.

[mrbagyo]

[TyphoonNara]

[TyphoonNara]

TPPS10 PGTW 220326

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TREVOR)

B. 22/0300Z

C. 14.45S

D. 139.62E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 15A/PBO TIGHTLY CURVED BNDG/ANMTN. 1.05 WRAP ON
LOG1O SPIRAL YIELDS A 4.0 DT. MET AND PT YIELD A 4.0. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


BERMEA

[al78]

The JTWC forecasts are all over the place these last two days. First it was forecast to peak as a cat 4 (Saffir-Simpson scale), then it was forecast to peak at cat 1, now its forecast peak is back up to cat 3. Windscreen wiper forecasts in the extreme, must be high uncertainty how much the land interaction has disrupted the inner core and how quickly it can re-organise. I suppose one of the forecasts will verify, all we need is the forecast to peak at cat 2 later today and we'll have gone through almost the full Saffir Simpson scale.

[WAcyclone]

This is quite a spectacular microwave presentation:



Maybe some dry air getting ingested into the core?

[1900hurricane]

SATCON has been running way above the JTWC estimates.

[galaxy401]

So no discussion at all that Trevor made landfall yesterday? Okay....