WPAC: 03W - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W

#21 Postby euro6208 » Thu Mar 14, 2019 9:06 pm

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W

#22 Postby euro6208 » Thu Mar 14, 2019 10:23 pm

Image

WDPN31 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE)
WARNING NR 001//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 324 NM
SOUTH OF NAVSTA GUAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
DEEP CONVECTION PRIMARILY DISPLACED TO THE NORTH AND IN A DEEP
CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE EAST. ALTHOUGH AN OLDER 141206Z ASCAT PASS
SHOWED A WAVELIKE PATTERN WITH CYCLONIC TURNING AND STRONGER 25-30
KT WINDS ONLY TO THE NORTH AND NO RETURN FLOW, A 142049Z SSMIS 91GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LLCC WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 25 KNOTS BASED ON THE APPARENT CLOSED CIRCULATION IN MSI
AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY, THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS, AND
MULTIAGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T1.0 (25 KTS).
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE (15-
20 KT) SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND
ADEQUATE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (26 TO 28C). TD 02W IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED
TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE FIRST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE AND SETS THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. THROUGH TAU 72, TD 02W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED STR TO
THE NORTH. A TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST IS WEAKENING THE
STR, ALLOWING FOR GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. DUE TO THE MARGINAL VWS AND
SSTS, AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, TD 03W IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY
INTENSIFY TO 30 KTS BY TAU 30. AFTER TAU 30, THE STR WILL BUILD BACK
IN TO THE NORTH OF TD 03W, LEADING TO DIMINISHING POLEWARD OUTFLOW
AND A MOSTLY WESTWARD TRACK. THOUGH MODELS ARE IN GOOD NORTH-SOUTH
AGREEMENT, ECMWF PREDICTS A FASTER ALONG-TRACK MOTION THAN DO THE
OTHER MODELS.
C. AFTER TAU 72, SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING IN NEAR JAPAN WILL
RESULT IN COLD, DRY NORTHEASTERLY SURGE NEGATIVELY IMPACTING TD 03W.
IN ADDITION TO THE DRY AIR AND HIGHER VWS, LAND INTERACTION AS TD
03W CROSSES MINDANAO WILL LEAD TO FURTHER WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION
BY TAU 96. GIVEN THE POOR ORGANIZATION OF THE CIRCULATION, EARLIER
DISSIPATION INTO A TROPICAL WAVE VICE A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
POSSIBLE. DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES IN ALONG-TRACK SPEED, THERE IS FAIR
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W

#23 Postby euro6208 » Fri Mar 15, 2019 3:02 am

A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for Yap and Ngulu in
Yap State and Kayangel in Palau.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W

#24 Postby cycloneye » Fri Mar 15, 2019 5:09 am

JMA upgrades to minor TD.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 08N 143E WEST 15 KT.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 95W

#25 Postby TyphoonNara » Fri Mar 15, 2019 6:53 am

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 95W

#26 Postby euro6208 » Fri Mar 15, 2019 7:50 am

WDPN31 PGTW 150900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE)
WARNING NR 002//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 03W (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING
DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE AND IS
BASED ON A 150405Z 36GHZ AMSR2 MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS DEEP
CONVECTION IS PRIMARILY LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS BASED ON A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE
OF T1.0 (25 KNOTS) FROM PGTW. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS TD 03W IS
EXPERIENCING NEUTRAL TO UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 TO 25
KNOTS). TD 03W HAS MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW BUT NO EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT,
BETWEEN 28 AND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. TD 03W IS TRACKING WESTWARD WHILE
ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO
THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. THROUGH TAU 24, TD 03W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY
WESTWARD WHILE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. A SLIGHT WEAKENING IN THE STR WILL ALLOW A
SMALL NORTHWARD COMPONENT IN THE TRACK THROUGH TAU 24. BEYOND TAU 24,
TD 03W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD. A SECOND STR WILL
BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE AND WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT
SOUTHWARD COMPONENT IN THE TRACK. LIMITED UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW WILL
PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. SLIGHTLY FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW TD 03W TO ONLY
REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS BEFORE DISSIPATING BY TAU 72.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING A
WESTWARD TRACK. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE WEAK NATURE OF THE SYSTEM THERE
IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 95W

#27 Postby euro6208 » Fri Mar 15, 2019 8:53 pm

WDPN31 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE)
WARNING NR 004//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 03W (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 192
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS (KTS)
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION OVER A PARTLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 151623Z AMSR2 36 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH
INDICATES SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO A POORLY DEFINED LLCC. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T1.0 TO T1.5 (25 KNOTS). THE ENVIRONMENT IS
MARGINAL WITH WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE BEING
OFFSET BY MODERATE TO STRONG (20-25 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
LIMITED OUTFLOW. TD 03W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 03W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
STR. POOR ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSISTENT AND PREVENT ANY
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. BY TAU 72, IF NOT SOONER, THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE AS IT TRACKS NEAR MINDANAO. WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF NAVGEM, WHICH IS NORTH OF THE OTHER MEMBERS, DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT. TO OFFSET THE INFLUENCE OF NAVGEM,
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED SOUTH OF THE CONSENSUS TRACK WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 95W

#28 Postby euro6208 » Fri Mar 15, 2019 9:06 pm

A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for Yap and Ngulu in Yap
State...and for Koror and Kayangel in the Republic of Palau.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 95W

#29 Postby euro6208 » Fri Mar 15, 2019 9:37 pm

HWRF at peak.

Image
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 95W

#30 Postby euro6208 » Sat Mar 16, 2019 6:19 am

Image

WDPN31 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE)
WARNING NR 006//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 03W (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 121
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF YAP, FSM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
(KTS)OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A SYSTEM WITH FLARING CONVECTION AND WEAK FRAGMENTED
BANDS LOOSELY FEEDING INTO AN OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC).
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON A NOTCH
FEATURE IN THE 160529Z SSMI NEAR-SURFACE 37GHZ COLORIZED IMAGE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF
T1.5/25KTS AND CONSISTENT WITH NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INCLUDING
YAP. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA WITH
MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WEAK POLEWARD
OUTFLOW THAT IS PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE WEAK CONVECTION. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA ARE CONDUCIVE AT 29C. THE
CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 03W WILL TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST UNDER THE STR. THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT MAY
PROMOTE A MODEST INTENSIFICATION UP TO 30 KTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS, THEN LAND INTERACTION WITH THE SOUTHERN
PHILIPPINE ISLAND OF MINDANAO WILL LEAD TO GRADUAL DECAY AND EVENTUAL
DISSIPATION BY TAU 72, POSSIBLY SOONER, AFTER TD 03W MAKES LANDFALL
NEAR DAVAO. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SIGNIFICANTLY SPREADS OUT UP TO
330 NM BY TAU 72, LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST,
WHICH IS PLACED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 95W

#31 Postby euro6208 » Sat Mar 16, 2019 6:19 am

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 160939 CCA
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression 03W Advisory Number 6...Corrected
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP032019
736 PM ChST Sat Mar 16 2019

Corrected headline

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W SOUTH OF YAP CONTINUING TOWARD KOROR...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
Tropical Storm Watch is cancelled for Yap.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for Ngulu in Yap State...and
for Koror and Kayangel in the Republic of Palau.


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...7.6N 138.2E

About 70 miles southeast of Ngulu
About 130 miles south of Yap
About 240 miles east of Kayangel
About 255 miles east of Koror
About 605 miles southwest of Guam

Maximum sustained winds...30 mph
Present movement...west...265 degrees at 14 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM ChST...0900 UTC...the center of Tropical Depression 03W was
located near Latitude 7.6 degrees North and Longitude 138.2 degrees
East. TD 03W is moving west at 14 mph and is expected to maintain
this motion through Monday. This track will send 03W over Koror
around midday Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds remain at 30 mph. Some slight intensification
is expected through Sunday morning, but 03W is forecast to peak at 35
mph before gradually weakening beginning Sunday evening.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Weather
Service at 1100 PM followed by the next scheduled advisory at 200 AM
early Sunday morning.

$$

W. AYDLETT
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 03W

#32 Postby euro6208 » Sat Mar 16, 2019 6:50 pm

Image

WDPN31 PGTW 162100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE)
WARNING NR 008//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 03W (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 107
NM EAST OF KOROR, PALAU, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS (KTS) OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL SYSTEM WITH ISOLATED FLARING DEEP CONVECTION
THAT IS OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON INDICATIONS OF
SHALLOW FEEDER BANDS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE CIRRUS SHIELD IN THE
EIR IMAGERY AND THE WIND DIRECTION (FROM THE NORTH-NORTHEAST) OF
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT KOROR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS
CONSISTENT WITH PGTW AND RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T1.5 AND T1.0,
RESPECTIVELY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN
AREA WITH MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WEAK
OUTFLOW, PARTICULARLY POLEWARD. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS ALSO
CONDUCIVE AT 27-28 CELSIUS. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. THE STR WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TD 03W ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
TRACK UNTIL MAKING LANDFALL AND DISSIPATING OVER MINDANAO PRIOR TO
TAU 72. THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WILL PERSIST AND MAY SUPPORT MODEST
INTENSIFICATION TO 30 KTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTERWARD,
INCREASING VWS AND, LATER, LAND INTERACTION WILL LEAD TO DISSIPATION
BY TAU 72, POSSIBLY SOONER. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SPREADS OUT TO
OVER 400 NM WITH NAVGEM AND GFS BOUNDING THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
EXTREMES, RESPECTIVELY. OF NOTE, THE NORTHERN MODELS (NAVGEM AND
ECMWF) FOLLOW A WESTERLY TRACK AND MAINTAIN A CIRCULATION OVER THE
PHILIPPINES AND INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA BEYOND TAU 72. THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO
HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 03W

#33 Postby euro6208 » Sat Mar 16, 2019 6:51 pm

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 03W

#34 Postby Nancy Smar » Sun Mar 17, 2019 3:58 am

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 03W

#35 Postby Nancy Smar » Sun Mar 17, 2019 4:11 am

Tropical Depression"Chedeng"
Tropical Cyclone: WARNING
Issued at 05:00 pm, 17 March 2019
(Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin to be issued at 11:00 pm today.)

THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION OUTSIDE THE PHILIPPINE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY (PAR) HAS ENTERED THE PAR AND WAS NAMED "CHEDENG".
"CHEDENG" entered the PAR at 11:00 AM today.
Scattered to at times widespread moderate to heavy rains will prevail over Surigao del Sur, Agusan del Sur, Davao Oriental, Compostela Valley, and Davao del Norte tomorrow (18 March) and in most parts of Mindanao on Tuesday (19 March). The disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned and residents of these areas, especially those living in areas identified to be at high risk of flooding or landslide, are advised to undertake necessary preparations and continue monitoring for updates.
Those with small seacrafts are advised not to venture out over the eastern seaboards of Visayas and Mindanao, as well as the seaboards of areas under Tropical Cyclone Warning Signal (TCWS).
This tropical depression may make landfall over the eastern coast of Davao Oriental between tomorrow evening and Tuesday morning.
TCWS #1 may be raised over Davao del Norte and Compostela Valley in the next bulletin.

WTPH20 RPMM 170600
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING 01
TROPICAL DEPRESSION

ANALYSIS 170600UTC
PSTN 07.4N 134.0E
MOVE W 15KT
PRES 1006HPA
MXWD 025KT

FORECAST 24H 180600UTC
PSTN 06.8N 128.9E
CATE TROPICAL DEPRESSION

FORECAST 48H 190600UTC
PSTN 06.5N 124.0E
CATE TROPICAL DEPRESSION

FORECAST 72H 200600UTC
PSTN 06.6N 120.3E
CATE LOW PRESSURE AREA

NEXT WARNING 171200 UTC

PHILIPPINE ATMOSPHERIC GEOPHYSICAL AND
ASTRONOMICAL SERVICES ADMINISTRATION=
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 03W

#36 Postby doomhaMwx » Mon Mar 18, 2019 2:39 am

03W THREE 190318 0600 6.6N 128.5E WPAC 20 1007


Downgrade to 20kts seems reasonable with the most recent ASCAT pass.

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 03W

#37 Postby euro6208 » Mon Mar 18, 2019 6:30 am

Image

WTPN31 PGTW 180900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z --- NEAR 6.6N 128.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 6.6N 128.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 6.5N 126.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 6.6N 123.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 6.6N 127.9E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 03W (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM
EAST OF DAVAO, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
DISORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH A SMALL AREA OF FRAGMENTED CONVECTION
SHEARED NORTHWESTWARD OF A RAGGED, EXPOSED, AND ILL-DEFINED
CIRCULATION. A 180121Z DIRECT ASCAT PASS INDICATES THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION HAS UNRAVELED AND OPENED INTO A WAVE/INVERTED TROUGH. THE
SAME ASCAT IMAGERY AND AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD
INDICATE THE TD HAS WEAKENED TO BELOW JTWC WARNING CRITERIA AND IS
NOT EXPECTED TO RECOVER AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA
UNDER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, BY TAU 12, THE
SYSTEM WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN THE SOUTHERN PHILIPPINE ISLAND OF
MINDANAO NEAR DAVAO LEADING TO ITS FURTHER EROSION. HOWEVER, THE
SHEARED CONVECTION WILL STILL BRING NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS AND LARGE
AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION THAT CAN TRIGGER GUSTY WIND CONDITIONS AND
FLASH FLOODING OVER SOUTHERN MINDANAO. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON
THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 10 FEET.//
NNNN
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