BoB: FANI - Post-Tropical

[Sciencerocks]

[Sciencerocks]

WTIO31 PGTW 300900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (FANI) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (FANI) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 11.8N 86.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.8N 86.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 13.1N 85.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 14.0N 84.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 14.6N 84.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 15.4N 84.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 18.4N 86.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 22.2N 87.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 26.1N 91.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 12.1N 86.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (FANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 657 NM SOUTH
OF CALCUTTA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THAT THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM HAS DEEPENED AND
HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRICAL. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION BASED ON THE COMPACT RAIN BANDS WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO THE
MICROWAVE EYE SEEN IN A 292336Z GMI 89GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 85 KTS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T4.5-5.0 (77-90 KTS) AND A 291958Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF
82 KTS. LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM (30-31
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, AND GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNELS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. TC 01B
IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR). AROUND TAU 24, THE CYCLONE WILL ROUND THE STR AXIS AND TURN
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST OF INDIA IS
EXPECTED AROUND TAU 96. THERE IS POOR AGREEMENT IN THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE THROUGH TAU 72 AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO RECURVE AROUND THE
AFOREMENTIONED STR. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
LANDFALL, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM DISMISSED 150NM TO THE EAST
OF CONSENSUS AT TAU 72. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z
IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300900Z, 301500Z, 302100Z AND 010300Z.//
NNNN

[doomhaMwx]

[TorSkk]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1123222714502791168

[TorSkk]

[Sciencerocks]

[TorSkk]

Very impressive intense convection surrounding the eye. Shear is still affecting the system, though.

[TorSkk]

I will never understand how IMD always comes up with a T number 0.5 or 1 lower than JTWC

AS PER THE SATELLITE IMAGERY OF 1800 UTC ON 30TH APRIL, 2019 THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF
THE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHWEST & ADJOINING SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL IS C.I 5.0. IT HAS
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST PATTERN. ASSOCIATED BROKEN LOW TO MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH
EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL
BETWEEN LATITUDE 12°N TO 15.0°N AND LONG 82.0°E TO 85.3 °E. MINIMUM CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURE IS MINUS 93°C.

[Kingarabian]

I will never understand how IMD always comes up with a T number 0.5 or 1 lower than JTWC

AS PER THE SATELLITE IMAGERY OF 1800 UTC ON 30TH APRIL, 2019 THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF
THE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHWEST & ADJOINING SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL IS C.I 5.0. IT HAS
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST PATTERN. ASSOCIATED BROKEN LOW TO MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH
EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL
BETWEEN LATITUDE 12°N TO 15.0°N AND LONG 82.0°E TO 85.3 °E. MINIMUM CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURE IS MINUS 93°C.

Joe Bastardi was complaining about them in his video update today.

[doomhaMwx]

'extremely severe cyclonic storm' by IMD.

Sub: Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm “FANI” over Westcentral and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal: Cyclone Alert for Odisha, West Bengal and Srikakulam, Vijayanagaram & Visakhapatnam Districts of Andhra Pradesh Coasts: Yellow Message

The Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm „FANI‟ (pronounced as ‘FONI’) over Westcentral & adjoining Southwest Bay of Bengal, moved west-northwestwards with a speed of about 07 kmph in last six hours and lay centred at 2330 hrs IST of 30th April, 2019 over Westcentral and adjoining Southwest Bay of Bengal near latitude 13.5°N and longitude 84.4°E, about 710 km south-southwest of Puri (Odisha) and 480 km south-southeast of Vishakhapatnam (Andhra Pradesh). It is very likely to intensify further and move northwestwards till 01st May noon and thereafter recurve north- northeastwards and cross Odisha Coast between Gopalpur and Chandbali, to the south of Puri around 3rd May afternoon with maximum sustained wind of speed 175-185 kmph gusting to 205 kmph.

[Tailspin]

Looking over the micros the system @2019-04-30 06:21Z appeared to have been concentric.

[1900hurricane]

Looks like the mid-level shear in the HWRF solutions has begin to impinge upon the core.

[doomhaMwx]

Either the cyclone's eye/center makes landfall over Odisha then continue NNE/NE towards the West Bengal, or remaining offshore but passing very close to Odisha's coast, and coming ashore into West Bengal instead. Both tracks/scenarios would be bad for Odisha nonetheless, but the latter increases the risk of heavy impacts on the low-lying and storm surge-prone Ganges Delta. Currently, the official forecasts from the JTWC and IMD show landfall over Odisha.

[Sciencerocks]

WTIO31 PGTW 012100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (FANI) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (FANI) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z --- NEAR 15.4N 84.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4N 84.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 16.6N 84.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 18.0N 85.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 19.7N 85.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 21.6N 87.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 25.3N 90.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
012100Z POSITION NEAR 15.7N 84.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (FANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 306 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF BHUBANESWAR, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED AN OVERALL DEEP, COMPACT, AND
SYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE AND A RAGGED 10-NM PINHOLE EYE. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE PINHOLE EYE, SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED FOR
WESTWARD TILT, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T5.5/105KTS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND SATCON.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 01B HAS DRIFTED IN AN AREA OF
INCREASING (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS); HOWEVER, A ROBUST
WESTWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND VERY WARM (32C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE ARE OFFSETTING THE VWS. TC FANI IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MORE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD, MAKING LANDFALL NEAR BHUBANESWAR AROUND TAU 36.
AFTERWARD, IT WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD PASSING WEST OF KOLKATA
AND INTO BANGLADESH. THE OVERALL FAVORABLE, ALBEIT MOMENTARY,
ENVIRONMENT CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK
OF 110 KNOTS BY TAU 12. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS, THEN LAND
INTERACTION WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE CYCLONE, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY
TAU 72. THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LEADING TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020300Z, 020900Z,
021500Z AND 022100Z.//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

01B FANI
As of 06:00 UTC May 02, 2019:

Location: 16.7°N 84.9°E
Maximum Winds: 115 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 939 mb

[Sciencerocks]

[TorSkk]

Clearly much stronger than 115 kn/T6.0, JTWC isn't even forecasting more intensification. This is approaching cat 5, clear-cut T7.0

[Hayabusa]

Eye just needs more clearing to go to the positive

2019MAY02 084500 5.7 946.0 107.2 5.7 6.1 7.1 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF -8.54 -81.07 EYE 14 IR 62.7 17.24 -84.89 ARCHER MSG1 52.9

[Sciencerocks]

[StruThiO]

Wow, this is looking like another tropical cyclone induced disaster