SIO: Lili - Post Tropical

[Nancy Smar]

93S INVEST 190502 0000 6.0S 133.0E SHEM 15 0

[TorSkk]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1125397433851228163

[Tailspin]

https://www.oceanviewweather.com.au/Sat ... uator.aspx

Rotating storms with a very well defined centre, looked TD and maybe already be a minimal tc now.

[WAcyclone]

Starting to organise nicely

[TorSkk]

Indonesian Agency for Meteorology Climatology and Geophysics

Jakarta Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC)



TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK



Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Southern Indonesia area

Issued Tuesday, 7th May 2019, Time 07.00 Western Indonesia Time



Current Tropical Cyclone in the Southern Indonesia area:

None.

Tropical cyclone development possibility:

Suspect area with minimum pressure 1006 mb is observed in Banda Sea near 6.0 S 128.9 E, about 312 km southeast of Ambon , and moving North 2 km/hr.

Possibility to develop into tropical cyclone:

Wednesday (tomorrow) : small possibility

Thursday (tomorrow +1): small possibility

Friday (tomorrow +2) : small possibility

[1900hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/_JoeWest_/status/1125902994375995392

[wxman57]

Jakarta finally recognized it as a TD.

[Tailspin]

For a limited time the system looks to be in a sweet spot. Lightening suggests the storm is intensifying atm
Divergence for the exhaust looks ideal on the cimss plot. If the storm can stay away from land interaction
it may crank up quite a few notches overnight.

https://meteologix.com/au/weather/1649539-baucau




https://imgur.com/LC5kWTQ

https://imgur.com/RZFGjUz


https://imgur.com/wGh2vV8


https://imgur.com/jrY0VUT

[al78]

It looks like a tropical depression or tropical storm on satellite imagery. What are JTWC waiting for? If this was in the Atlantic NHC would likely be advising on this two days ago.

[WAcyclone]

This system has been named Tropical Cyclone Lili by TCWC Jakarta. The current forecasts by Jakarta and JTWC both show the cyclone traversing the Northern Region of Australia for which TCWC Darwin is responsible within the next 24 hours. However, Darwin don't seem to issue off-season forecasts since their cyclone outlook still states "Tropical cyclone outlooks have concluded for the season. Outlooks will resume on 1 November.".

[WAcyclone]

A new ASCAT pass confirms that there indeed is a 40 kt TC located within the TCWC Darwin area of responsibility. Still no mention on the BOM website...

[Tailspin]

https://imgur.com/ilb5gCj

[TorSkk]

A new ASCAT pass confirms that there indeed is a 40 kt TC located within the TCWC Darwin area of responsibility. Still no mention on the BOM website...

https://i.imgur.com/6fauviu.jpg

From BOM:

Lili did briefly enter our area, but appears to be heading out again. Our staff in Darwin agreed with RSMC Jakarta that the system would continue to be handled by Jakarta.

[Tailspin]

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/two-out-of-season-tropical-disturbances/529700

Two 'out of season' tropical disturbances
Graeme Brittain, Saturday May 11, 2019 - 10:17 EST
The Australian tropical cyclone season runs from November to April (inclusive), but two tropical systems are expected within a week of each other.

Tropical Cyclone Lili formed just north of Australia's Northern Region on Thursday, in the Indonesian area of responsibility. The system kept well north of the mainland and has since dissipated, due to the interaction with a strong high pressure system over the Australain continent.

Further east, a tropical low is tracking towards the central Coral Sea. According to the BOM, this system is unlikely to develop into a tropical cyclone as a result of a highly unfavourable atmospheric environment.

Even though it is unlikely to develop into a cyclone, it will still have impacts for northern parts of the Sunshine State. As the system heads closer to the Queensland coast, areas of gusty winds and heavy rain will develop — particularly between Cooktown and Mackay on Tuesday and Wednesday.