SPAC: ANN - Post Tropical

[TorSkk]

94P INVEST 190505 1200 7.5S 165.2E SHEM 20 1005

[wxman57]

ASCAT-C confirms it's a 35kt TC. Both Fiji and BoM are ignoring it.

http://projects.knmi.nl/scatterometer/a ... at_app.cgi

[NotoSans]

BoM has named the system ANN.

[TorSkk]

27P TWENTYSEVE 190511 1800 16.4S 159.0E SHEM 35 1002



A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (94P)

B. 11/1730Z

C. 16.5S

D. 159.1E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T3.0/3.0/D2.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/AMSR2

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR
DATA. LATEST AMSR2 IMAGE SHOWED POSSIBLE BANDING TYPE EYE IN THE
MAKING. 6/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 3.0. PT AGREES WHILE MET IS 2.5
BASED ON RAPID DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

11/1444Z 16.4S 159.3E AMSR2

[TorSkk]

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1926 UTC 12/05/2019
Name: Tropical Cyclone Ann
Identifier: 26U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 15.8S
Longitude: 155.7E
Location Accuracy: within 60 nm [110 km]
Movement Towards: west northwest [281 deg]
Speed of Movement: 13 knots [24 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots [130 km/h]
Central Pressure: 993 hPa

REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Ann has strengthened slightly during the past few hours with
deep convection persisting near the centre.

Shear pattern yielded a DT of 3.5 with centre within dense overcast. MET is 4.0,
but adjusted is 3.5 as is PAT. FT and CI both at 3.5. NESDIS ADT has fallen
slightly to 3.1 and raw FT of 3.3. Conversely, CIMSS ADT has increased
marginally with 3.8 and raw FT numbers of 3.9. SATCON has increased to 58 knots
[1-min mean].

ASCAT pass 1030Z showed a tight circulation with gales extending around the
centre and max winds slightly above 45 knots in the southern flank.

A mid level ridge building to the south of Ann will steer the system along a
track to the west-northwest over the coming days.

CIMSS shear was less than 10 knots of vertical wind shear at 1800UTC. An upper
level trough moving eastwards across the southern Coral Sea has been providing
very good poleward outflow however this is showing signs of decreasing with the
trough moving away.

CIMSS Mimic-PW shows some dry entrainment into the system during the overnight
hours, though this does not seem to have an affect on the development of the
system.

Ann is expected to remain in a marginally favourable environment for development
with competing influences on the system. Vertical wind shear along the forecast
track is expected to remain weak during the next 48 hours and SST are around 27
to 28 deg C. Drier air is likely to continue to be entrained into the system.
There are also indications of more limited ocean heat content along the forecast
track. With these factors in mind, Ann may maintain a category 2 status during
the next 6-12 hours, before beginning a slow weakening trend, still well to the
east of the Queensland coast.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 13/0130 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.