ATL: ANDREA - Remnants

[NotSparta]

Tho this storm wont bother anybody. Its ominous for the season

Not really, pre season development happened in 2009 and it was inactive.

Now, if Andrea were in the MDR, that'd be very ominous

[jasons2k]

I see we have already started the 2019 Hurricane Season. This storm is a good test run and a reminder for everyone to do your annual stock-up and review of your hurricane plans.

Out of all the stories I have heard over the years - besides your life and pets - make sure all of your photos are in a safe place (or scanned). It’s the one material thing you can’t replace after the storm.

Be safe everyone this season.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Andrea Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012019
1100 PM AST Mon May 20 2019

...SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.5N 68.7W
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES



Subtropical Storm Andrea Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012019
1100 PM AST Mon May 20 2019

There has not been much change in association with Andrea since the
previous advisory a few hours ago. Satellite images show a
persistent area of deep convection that is mainly confined to the
north of the center, with less organized convection wrapping around
to the southeastern quadrant. A recent partial ASCAT pass showed
maximum winds of 35 kt, which is similar to what the aircraft found
earlier this evening and in about the same location. Therefore, the
initial intensity is held at 35 kt. This estimate is also in
agreement with the latest satellite intensity consensus from CIMSS
at the University of Wisconsin.

Andrea is located a few hundred miles from a mid- to upper-level
low, and its interaction with this feature is part of the reason why
the cyclone is considered subtropical. This upper low and a ridge
to the east is causing Andrea to move northward at about 10 kt. The
models are in good agreement that Andrea should slow down and turn
northeastward on Tuesday, and then eastward Tuesday night and
Wednesday when it becomes embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies.
The NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous one and lies
near the middle of the model guidance.

Andrea could strengthen slightly overnight while it remains in a
relatively moist and unstable atmosphere. However, after that time,
a gradual weakening trend is predicted due to less favorable
environmental conditions. All of the reliable models agree that
Andrea will merge with, or be absorbed by, a cold front on
Wednesday. This intensity forecast is in best agreement with the
GFS model.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0300Z 29.5N 68.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 30.4N 68.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 31.1N 67.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 22/1200Z 31.3N 65.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[CrazyC83]

Fifth year in a row with a preseason named storm!

Is there even any record of this happening before? Also interesting to note that we've now had nine years of the last 13 (since 2007) where something occurred before hurricane season (and all but one being named), whereas the last time before that was 1981 with a named system, and only four between having depressions (the last was 1993)

I'm not sure if reanalysis will find anything new. I know in the 1950s and 1960s there were a fair number of pre-season storms, but since then until 2007 they were quite rare. Before the satellite era you can blame undercounting, but in the 1980s through 2006 that was a real drought of them. Interestingly, we haven't seen a glut of December storms.

Time to start hurricane season earlier?

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/1130672494413778945

[chaser1]

Here we go!!! First ever time in history with a named storm in the SATL and NATL simultaneously!

We have only been naming subtropical storms since 2002. Prior to that, Andrea would not have been named. Not sure whether the South Atlantic conventions are the same, but there is a good chance that 18 years ago neither of these systems would have been named.

Couldn't agree more!!!

[TorSkk]

Subtropical Storm Andrea Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012019
500 AM AST Tue May 21 2019

...SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA MAINTAINING A NORTHWARD MOTION OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...
...EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.0N 69.0W
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

During the past few hours, deep convection has waned considerably,
likely due to the entrainment of dry mid-level from the south and
modest southerly vertical wind shear as indciated by GOES-16 mid-
and upper-level water vapor imagery. As mentioned in the previous
advisory discussion, an earlier ASCAT overpass just barely caught
35-kt winds about 50-55 nmi northeast of the low-level center, which
was likely just outside the radius of maximum winds. Since slightly
stronger winds could have existed closer to the center, the initial
intensity is being maintained at 35 kt for this advisory despite the
aforementioned degradation in the convective pattern.

The initial motion estimate is 360/05 kt. It appears that Andrea is
slowing down, implying that a turn toward the northeast should occur
within the next 6-12 h as a deep-layer trough and cold front
steadily approach the cyclone from the northwest. The global and
regional models remain in good agreement that Andrea will turn
northeastward later today, and then move eastward by tonight and
Wednesday when the cyclone becomes embedded within the approaching
deep-layer mid-latitude westerly flow. The NHC track forecast is
essentially unchanged from the previous advisory and lies a little
south of the middle of the track guidance envelope.

Although deep convection has decreased markedly, thunderstorm
activity should redevelop some by this afternoon and tonight when
Andrea will be moving eastward over an SST thermal ridge and into
a region of convective instability that exist between 65W-68W
longitude. which will also be coincident with the vertical wind
shear decreasing to less than 5 kt as per SHIPS model output.
However, some slight spin down of the vortex will likely occur
before convection can re-fire and re-strengthens the system. Thus,
the intensity forecast essentially calls for little change in
strength for the next 24 h or so, followed by weakening due to
increasing northwesterly vertical wind shear, and then merger with
a cold front on Wednesday. The official intensity forecast closely
follows the IVCN consensus model and the weakening trend noted in
the global models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0900Z 30.0N 69.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 30.7N 68.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 31.2N 66.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 22/1800Z 31.3N 65.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[wxman57]

Looks like complete garbage. It's been torn apart by shear. Should never have been upgraded. Full ASCAT hit (not partial) last evening showed 25-30 kt max winds. I doubt it has retained its circulation since then. Visible satellite will help. I circled the NHC location in the sat pic below.

[euro6208]

I think it's time to use Subtropical systems in other basins if the Atlantic does it. I seen even better looking systems in the WPAC...No wonder why they seen an increase in numbers.

[TheStormExpert]

Couldn’t agree more wxman57! Andrea is looking quite pathetic.

[plasticup]

Tho this storm wont bother anybody.

There is a country inside the cone.

[NDG]

Looks like complete garbage. It's been torn apart by shear. Should never have been upgraded. Full ASCAT hit (not partial) last evening showed 25-30 kt max winds. I doubt it has retained its circulation since then. Visible satellite will help. I circled the NHC location in the sat pic below.

http://wxman57.com/images/Andrea.jpg

Still has a well defined circulation this morning but like you said shear took a toll on it last night.

[Dean4Storms]

I heard they might name this yesterday but didn't believe it. What a joke!

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1130807314934587392

[cycloneye]

Will be downgrades to SubTropical Depression.

As of 12:00 UTC May 21, 2019:

Location: 30.7°N 69.2°W
Maximum Winds: 30 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1009 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1014 mb
Radius of Circulation: 120 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 50 NM

[TorSkk]

Subtropical Depression Andrea Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012019
1100 AM AST Tue May 21 2019

...ANDREA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION...
...EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE SOON...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.8N 69.2W
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES

As expected, Andrea is likely to be a short-lived event. The
cyclone's cloud pattern has continued to degrade, and Andrea is now
essentially devoid of deep convection. In fact, at first glance,
the upper-level low to the southwest of the center appears to be
the most dominant feature. Based on the lack of convection and a
buoy observation not far to the north of Andrea, the system is
being downgraded to a subtropical depression. Since the cyclone is
expected to remain under the influence of the upper low and in and
environment of dry mid-level air for the next day or so, Andrea is
likely to degenerate into a remnant low pressure area in a day or
less.

The system has moved a little more to the north than previously
estimated and the initial motion is 360/7. Upper-level westerlies
should cause the cyclone to turn eastward in 12-24 hours until
dissipation. The official track forecast is similar to but a
little slower than the dynamical model consensus, TVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/1500Z 30.8N 69.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 31.5N 67.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 22/1200Z 31.7N 66.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[wxman57]

I think it peaked early yesterday afternoon a bit before recon arrived. Since then, convection has decreased and winds have dropped. Just a remnant swirl of clouds not. I'm sure the NHC will declare it post-tropical on their next advisory. I still don't believe it ever should have been upgraded. Perhaps it will be forced to relinquish its name post-season?

[AnnularCane]

If Andrea met the criteria, she should have been upgraded.

[wxman57]

If Andrea met the criteria, she should have been upgraded.

I don't think it met the criteria.

[Kazmit]

I think it peaked early yesterday afternoon a bit before recon arrived. Since then, convection has decreased and winds have dropped. Just a remnant swirl of clouds not. I'm sure the NHC will declare it post-tropical on their next advisory. I still don't believe it ever should have been upgraded. Perhaps it will be forced to relinquish its name post-season?

http://wxman57.com/images/Andrea3.JPG

Would that change the rest of the names though since it would mess up the order? Would Barry become Andrea instead, etc?