ARB: VAYU - Post-Tropical

[irfman]

What are the updates on the possible track of the cyclone? It has shown rapid intensification in the past 24 hours.

[ColdMiser123]

0z GFS stalls over the western India coast after two landfalls due to a weak upper level steering pattern. Long duration rainfall, resultant flooding, and persistent storm surge would all be serious issues under this scenario.

[ColdMiser123]

12z GFS shifted significantly further west with Vayu relative to 0z which would significantly lessen impacts.

[doomhaMwx]

GFS now the same with ECMWF then in keeping Vayu's center offshore. Could still be bad for the coastal areas though with that expected significant slow down in movement speed.

[doomhaMwx]

12z GFS shifted significantly further west with Vayu relative to 0z which would significantly lessen impacts.

The 12Z run is already the upgraded GFS version.

[Sciencerocks]

[Sciencerocks]

[doomhaMwx]

Vayu is currently slowly skirting the coast of Gujarat's Saurashtra region/peninsula. The cyclone is still passing close enough to bring hazardous conditions to the coastal areas of Saurashtra, however, plus the slow movement means prolonged exposure to the cyclone's effects/impacts.

At 06Z (11:30am IST) today, a station in Porbandar and Veraval recorded sustained winds of 46kph and 43kph, respectively.

[Tailspin]

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Cyclone Vayu's winds send heavy water tanks flying like balloons: http://ow.ly/i1fg50uDjhj

Footage suggests wind gusts @ this location were well over 100km's .

[doomhaMwx]

[doomhaMwx]

TC ADVISORY
TCAC: NEW DELHI
DTG: 20190616/0600Z
TC: VAYU
NR: 25
PSN: N2054 E06506
MOV: NNE04KT
C: 0984HPA
MAX WIND: 55KT
FCST PSN+06HR: 16/1200Z N2112 E06518
FCST MAX WIND +6HRS: 50 KT
FCST PSN+12HR: 16/1800Z N2136 E06542
FCST MAX WIND+12HR: 45KT
FCST PSN+18HR: 17/0000Z N2200 E06618
FCST MAX WIND+18HR: 40KT
FCST PSN+24HR: 17/0600Z N2224 E06712
FCST MAX WIND+24HR: 30KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20190616/1500Z
TOO: 161400 HRS IST

[doomhaMwx]

JTWC issued their final warning on Vayu. The peak intensity was raised to 100kts on 06/13 12Z (originally 95kts).

02A VAYU 190617 0600 22.0N 66.9E IO 30 994
02A VAYU 190617 0000 21.6N 66.6E IO 35 994
02A VAYU 190616 1800 20.8N 66.1E IO 35 993
02A VAYU 190616 1200 20.5N 65.3E IO 40 991
02A VAYU 190616 0600 20.7N 65.1E IO 50 985
02A VAYU 190616 0000 20.9N 65.4E IO 55 981
02A VAYU 190615 1800 20.7N 65.9E IO 60 977
02A VAYU 190615 1200 20.7N 66.4E IO 70 971
02A VAYU 190615 0600 20.6N 67.1E IO 75 966
02A VAYU 190615 0000 20.6N 67.6E IO 80 962
02A VAYU 190614 1800 20.7N 68.0E IO 75 967
02A VAYU 190614 1200 20.8N 68.3E IO 75 965
02A VAYU 190614 0600 20.9N 68.4E IO 85 961
02A VAYU 190614 0000 20.9N 68.5E IO 90 956
02A VAYU 190613 1800 20.8N 68.8E IO 95 954
02A VAYU 190613 1200 20.7N 69.1E IO 100 948
02A VAYU 190613 0600 20.4N 69.4E IO 90 958
02A VAYU 190613 0000 20.1N 69.5E IO 85 961
02A VAYU 190612 1800 19.6N 69.6E IO 85 963
02A VAYU 190612 1200 19.1N 69.8E IO 90 961
02A VAYU 190612 0600 18.4N 70.0E IO 90 961
02A VAYU 190612 0000 17.6N 70.2E IO 90 956
02A VAYU 190611 1800 16.8N 70.6E IO 80 963
02A VAYU 190611 1200 16.0N 70.8E IO 65 980
02A VAYU 190611 0600 15.2N 70.9E IO 55 986
02A VAYU 190611 0000 14.5N 70.7E IO 50 988
02A VAYU 190610 1800 13.9N 70.7E IO 45 992
02A VAYU 190610 1200 13.3N 70.8E IO 35 996
02A VAYU 190610 0600 12.7N 70.9E IO 30 999
02A VAYU 190610 0000 12.1N 71.2E IO 30 999
02A VAYU 190609 1800 11.2N 71.1E IO 25 1002
02A VAYU 190609 1200 10.7N 71.3E IO 20 1004
02A VAYU 190609 0600 10.3N 71.4E IO 20 1004
02A VAYU 190609 0000 9.9N 71.5E IO 20 1004
02A VAYU 190608 1800 9.5N 71.5E IO 20 1007

Here are the IR and microwave images of Vayu at around 06/13 12Z... Definitely not at the system's best.





Vayu actually looked much better around 06/12 00Z, when SATCON estimates were at 101-102kts. On the revised track file, JTWC estimated 90kts for that time (originally 85kts).
On the other hand, SATCON estimates for the system on 06/13 12Z were only about 85kts, which looks more appropriate.

2019 IO 02 162.927 2019JUN11 221500 17.66 -70.69 3 957 93
2019 IO 02 162.948 2019JUN11 224500 17.72 -70.69 3 955 95
2019 IO 02 162.969 2019JUN11 231500 17.78 -70.69 3 955 96
2019 IO 02 162.990 2019JUN11 234500 17.85 -70.68 3 952 101
2019 IO 02 163.010 2019JUN12 001500 17.91 -70.68 3 952 102
2019 IO 02 163.031 2019JUN12 004500 17.97 -70.67 3 952 102
2019 IO 02 163.052 2019JUN12 011500 18.03 -70.67 3 949 95
2019 IO 02 163.073 2019JUN12 014500 18.08 -70.25 3 949 96
2019 IO 02 163.094 2019JUN12 021500 18.13 -70.23 3 951 94

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

2019 IO 02 164.448 2019JUN13 104500 20.76 -68.96 3 957 87
2019 IO 02 164.469 2019JUN13 111500 20.83 -69.07 3 957 84
2019 IO 02 164.490 2019JUN13 114500 20.90 -69.03 3 957 86
2019 IO 02 164.510 2019JUN13 121500 21.06 -69.01 3 957 85
2019 IO 02 164.531 2019JUN13 124500 20.83 -68.83 3 957 85
2019 IO 02 164.552 2019JUN13 131500 20.67 -68.88 3 957 84

Also, a comparison of NOAA ADT values on 06/12 00Z and 06/13 12Z.

_________________________________Final Adj Ini
Date (UTC) CI (CKZ)/(kts) Tno Raw Raw
2019JUN11 233000 4.8 964.6 84.8 4.8 4.8 4.2
2019JUN12 000000 4.8 964.6 84.8 4.8 4.8 4.2
2019JUN12 003000 4.8 964.6 84.8 4.8 4.8 4.2
2019JUN12 010000 4.8 964.6 84.8 4.8 4.8 4.2
2019JUN12 013000 4.8 964.5 84.8 4.8 4.8 4.2

-----------------------------------------------------------

2019JUN13 110000 4.3 970.4 72.2 4.3 4.3 3.7
2019JUN13 113000 4.3 970.4 72.2 4.3 4.3 3.7
2019JUN13 120000 4.3 970.4 72.2 4.3 4.3 3.9
2019JUN13 123000 4.4 968.7 74.6 4.4 4.4 3.7
2019JUN13 130000 4.4 966.0 74.6 4.4 4.4 4.0

Another plausible time that Vayu reached its peak was between 06/13 18Z-22Z when convection deepened once again and the eye/center became more apparent. SATCON and ADT values also spiked up.

2019 IO 02 164.802 2019JUN13 191500 21.01 -68.55 3 958 88
2019 IO 02 164.823 2019JUN13 194500 20.92 -68.73 3 959 86
2019 IO 02 164.844 2019JUN13 201500 20.80 -68.64 3 954 96
2019 IO 02 164.865 2019JUN13 204500 20.80 -68.61 3 954 93
2019 IO 02 164.885 2019JUN13 211500 20.80 -68.59 3 953 93
2019 IO 02 164.906 2019JUN13 214500 20.80 -68.56 3 953 93
2019 IO 02 164.927 2019JUN13 221500 20.80 -68.53 3 953 93
2019 IO 02 164.948 2019JUN13 224500 20.80 -68.51 3 953 93
2019 IO 02 164.969 2019JUN13 231500 20.80 -68.48 3 953 93
2019 IO 02 164.990 2019JUN13 234500 20.80 -68.46 3 953 93
2019 IO 02 165.010 2019JUN14 001500 20.80 -68.44 3 952 94
2019 IO 02 165.031 2019JUN14 004500 20.80 -68.41 3 952 94
2019 IO 02 165.052 2019JUN14 011500 20.80 -68.39 3 952 93
2019 IO 02 165.073 2019JUN14 014500 20.94 -68.42 3 952 94
2019 IO 02 165.094 2019JUN14 021500 20.95 -68.40 3 957 87
2019 IO 02 165.115 2019JUN14 024500 20.90 -68.41 3 958 84

_________________________________Final Adj Ini
Date (UTC) CI (CKZ)/(kts) Tno Raw Raw
2019JUN13 173000 5.2 950.9 94.8 5.2 5.5 5.5
2019JUN13 180000 5.3 948.9 97.2 5.3 5.4 5.4
2019JUN13 183000 5.3 952.6 97.2 5.2 4.8 4.8
2019JUN13 190000 5.3 952.6 97.2 5.1 4.8 4.4
2019JUN13 193000 5.3 952.6 97.2 5.1 4.7 4.4
2019JUN13 200000 5.3 952.6 97.2 5.0 4.6 4.5
2019JUN13 203000 5.3 952.6 97.2 4.9 4.6 4.5
2019JUN13 210000 5.3 952.6 97.2 4.7 4.5 4.5
2019JUN13 213000 5.3 952.6 97.2 4.6 4.6 4.6
2019JUN13 220000 5.3 952.6 97.2 4.6 4.6 4.6
2019JUN13 223000 5.3 952.6 97.2 4.6 5.1 5.1
2019JUN13 230000 5.3 952.6 97.2 4.6 4.5 4.5

So what I'm saying is that the 100kts peak intensity given by JTWC is appropriate, but it may have actually reached that strength around 06/12 00Z or/and 06/13 18Z-22Z, rather than on 06/13 12Z.