WPAC: Ex TD 95W

[Hayabusa]

JTWC says tropical storm

04W FOUR
As of 06:00 UTC Jun 29, 2019:

Location: 14.4°N 131.7°E
Maximum Winds: 35 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 mb

[Hayabusa]

WDPN31 PGTW 290900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 04W (FOUR)
WARNING NR 03//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 04W (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 417 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KAYANGEL, PALAU HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
LOW-LEVEL BANDING EVIDENT IN RECENT ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 290445Z AMSR 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INTENSITY OF 35
KNOTS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE RECENT SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF
T2.0 FROM PGTW AND KNES, IN LINE WITH 290045Z SATCON AND A 290610Z
ADT ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS. TS 04W HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTH AND
EAST OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FLARE OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
AS THE SYSTEM EXPERIENCES PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS). THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IN VICINITY OF THE LLCC IS
VERY SUPPORTIVE AT 29 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST INTENSITIES HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY
INCREASED FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. HOWEVER, THERE IS NO MAJOR
CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
B. TS 04W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD IN THE NEAR TERM UNDER
THE CONTINUED STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE
NORTH AND EAST. VWS WILL STAY MODERATE THROUGH TAU 36, UNTIL
GRADUALLY INCREASING AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES TAIWAN, LIMITING
INTENSIFICATION TO A SLOW RATE DESPITE PASSAGE OVER VERY WARM WATER
AND FAVORABLE SOUTHWESTWARD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK
FORECAST GUIDANCE REMAINS SPLIT, WITH A GROUPING CONSISTING OF THE
GEFS ENSEMBLE AND HWRF MODELS PREDICTING A TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF
TAIWAN AND THE ECMWF, UKMET, NAVGEM AND AFUM MODELS PREDICTING A
TRACK FARTHER TO THE NORTH. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS CONSERVATIVELY
CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS JTWC TRACK FORECAST AND CURRENT
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 72. THE EXACT TRACK WILL DEPEND ON
THE ORIENTATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE
DURING THIS PERIOD.
C. TS 04W IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING IN THE EXTENDED RANGE IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASING VWS AND LAND INTERACTION. NUMERICAL MODEL
TRACK FORECAST SPREAD IS PARTICULARLY PRONOUNCED IN THE EXTENDED
RANGE. A FEW CONSENSUS MODELS DEPICT TS 04W TURNING WESTWARD AND
INTERACTING WITH A DEVELOPING CIRCULATION IN THE NORTHERN SOUTH
CHINA SEA, WHILE OTHER MODELS DEPICT TS 04W MAINTAINING A
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OR TURNING POLEWARD ALONG THE STEERING RIDGE
PERIPHERY. THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST IS SET NORTHWESTWARD BASED ON
EXPECTATIONS OF SLOW BUT SUFFICIENT NEAR TERM INTENSIFICATION.
OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT JTWC TRACK
FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

I'd hate to think what would happen if the shear was low or non existant...That will keep it in check thankfully...

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 29 JUN 2019 Time : 121000 UTC
Lat : 14:59:06 N Lon : 131:04:57 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.0 / 998.1mb/ 45.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.0 3.2 3.6

Center Temp : -66.8C Cloud Region Temp : -66.4C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 1.00 ARC in LT GRAY

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 10nmi
- Environmental MSLP : 1008mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 20.8 degrees

****************************************************

[euro6208]

Upgraded to a TS...

04W FOUR 190629 1200 14.7N 131.1E WPAC 40 1001

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 291500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 04W (FOUR)
WARNING NR 04//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 04W (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 586 NM EAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON LOW-LEVEL BANDING
EVIDENT IN ANIMATED ENHANCED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 291220Z METOP-A
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS HEDGED BETWEEN
RECENT SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.5 FROM PGTW AND KNES, A
290939Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 44 KNOTS AND A 291310Z ADT OF 45 KNOTS. TS
04W HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE (STR) SITUATED TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FLARE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AS THE SYSTEM EXPERIENCES
PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE IN VICINITY OF THE LLCC IS VERY SUPPORTIVE AT 29 TO 30
DEGREES CELSIUS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO MAJOR CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS WARNING.
B. TS 04W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD IN THE NEAR TERM UNDER
THE CONTINUED STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE
NORTHEAST. VWS WILL STAY MODERATE TO HIGH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST, LIMITING INTENSIFICATION TO A SLOW RATE DESPITE PASSAGE
OVER VERY WARM WATER AND FAVORABLE SOUTHWESTWARD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.
NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS GRADUALLY CONVERGED WITH
A MORE CONSISTENT NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITHIN THE FIRST 72 HOURS. THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS JTWC TRACK FORECAST
AND CURRENT MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 72. THE EXACT TRACK
WILL DEPEND ON THE ORIENTATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE DURING THIS PERIOD.
C. TS 04W IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING IN THE EXTENDED RANGE IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASING VWS, DECREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND
LAND INTERACTION. NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK FORECAST SPREAD IS PRONOUNCED
AFTER TAU 72. A FEW CONSENSUS MODELS DEPICT TS 04W CONTINUING
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE STR AND OTHER MODELS DEPICT TS 04W TURNING
POLEWARD ALONG THE STEERING RIDGE PERIPHERY. THE CURRENT TRACK
FORECAST IS SET NORTHWESTWARD BASED ON EXPECTATIONS OF SLOW BUT
SUFFICIENT NEAR TERM INTENSIFICATION. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[NotoSans]

JTWC overestimated the system. METOP-C ASCAT pass did not depict any gale-force winds under convection.

[wxman57]

JTWC overestimated the system. METOP-C ASCAT pass did not depict any gale-force winds under convection.

Yeah, looks like a poorly-organized elongated low with 25kt winds. JMA has not upgraded it, nor are they issuing any advisories yet. JMA won't initiate advisories unless they expect the depression to strengthen.

[NotoSans]

Virtually no support from ECMWF ensemble. JMA surface weather map forecast shows dissipation within the next 48 hours.

[Hayabusa]

Here is why JTWC thinks it's a TS

WDPN31 PGTW 292100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 04W (FOUR)
WARNING NR 05//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 04W (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 564 NM EAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON RECENT MICROWAVE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INCLUDING A 291659Z AMSR2 AND A 291521Z GMI IMAGE.
THE INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T2.5 FROM PGTW AND KNES AND SUPPORTED BY EARLIER ASCAT-C
DATA INDICATING A MAXIMUM OF 30 TO 35 KNOT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CIRCULATION. THE REDUCTION IN INTENSITY FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING IS
NOT INDICATIVE OF A WEAKENING TREND, AS NEW DATA INDICATE THE SYSTEM
WAS LIKELY A BIT WEAKER SIX HOURS AGO THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED. TD
04W HAS MAINTAINED ITS STRUCTURE OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS WHILE
TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING
RIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH
THE PRIMARY DEEP CONVECTION OFFSET TO THE SOUTHWEST DUE TO PERSISTENT
MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). STRONG DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT HAS FUELED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DESPITE THE NEGATIVE IMPACT
OF VWS OVER THE CIRCULATION CENTER. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY
SUPPORTIVE AT ABOUT 30 DEGREES CELSIUS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO MAJOR CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS WARNING.
B. TS 04W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD FOLLOWING
THE STEERING FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING TO THE
NORTH AND EAST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. VWS IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE
SLIGHTLY THROUGH TAU 48, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY
SLOWLY WITH THE SUPPORT OF VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. BY TAU 72, INCREASING VWS AND PASSAGE OVER
COOLER WATER WILL LIKELY INDUCE A WEAKENING TREND. NUMERICAL MODEL
TRACK FORECAST GUIDANCE COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT, WITH THE MAJORITY
OF AVAILABLE MODELS NOW INDICATING A TRACK NEAR SOUTHERN TAIWAN OR
SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 72, WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE.
C. IN THE EXTENDED RANGE, TS 04W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INLAND AND
DISSIPATE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CHINA. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DIVERGES AFTER
TAU 72, ALTHOUGH ALL MODELS SUPPORT DISSIPATION. BECAUSE MOTION OF
THE WEAKENED SYSTEM IS LESS CERTAIN DURING THIS PERIOD, CONFIDENCE IN
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS LOW.//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

If only weren't for the shear...

[mrbagyo]

[euro6208]

Remains a TS. Looks like shear could kill this off sooner.

WDPN31 PGTW 300300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 04W (FOUR)
WARNING NR 06//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 04W (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 510 NM EAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON RECENT MICROWAVE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INCLUDING A 292214Z SSMIS AND A 292127Z CORIOLIS
IMAGE. THE INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 FROM PGTW AND KNES. TD 04W IS TRACKING
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE
SITUATED TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) HAS BECOME LESS DEFINED IN MICROWAVE AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. ALTHOUGH A PATCH OF DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTS OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION, NEARLY ALL CONVECTION HAS
DIMINISHED NEAR THE CENTER. THIS STRUCTURAL CHANGE SUGGESTS THAT
VERTICAL WIND SHEARS (VWS) IS EFFECTING THE SYSTEM MORE THAN
PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT REMAINS STRONG, AND SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY SUPPORTIVE AT ABOUT 30 DEGREES CELSIUS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. FORECAST INTENSITIES HAVE BEEN REDUCED FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING
BASED ON ONGOING AND ANTICIPATED DISRUPTION TO THE STORM STRUCTURE BY
PERSISTENT VWS. OTHERWISE, THERE IS NO MAJOR CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
B. TS 04W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD FOLLOWING
THE STEERING FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING TO THE
NORTH AND EAST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. VWS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY
THROUGH TAU 48, WHICH MAY ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY WITH
THE SUPPORT OF VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND STRONG
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. HOWEVER, RECENT DISORGANIZATION OF THE STORM
STRUCTURE MAY HAMPER FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND LEAVE THE STORM
VULNERABLE TO DISSIPATING EARLIER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST
INDICATES. THIS EARLY DISSIPATION IS CONSIDERED A PLAUSIBLE ALTERNATE
SCENARIO TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT REGARDING THE GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OF TS 04W THROUGH
TAU 72, ALTHOUGH THE LATEST NAVGEM RUN PREDICTS RECURVATURE OF A
STRONGER THAN EXPECTED SYSTEM TO THE EAST OF TAIWAN AND SEVERAL
MODELS DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE CURRENT FORECAST
TRACK IS CONSERVATIVELY CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK
AND IS SUPPORTED BY SEVERAL MODEL SOLUTIONS. GIVEN NOTED MODEL
DIVERGENCE, CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK IS LOW.
C. IN THE EXTENDED RANGE, TS 04W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INLAND AND
DISSIPATE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CHINA, IF IT SURVIVES TO THAT POINT.
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DIVERGES SIGNIFICANTLY, ALTHOUGH ALL MODELS
SUPPORT DISSIPATION. CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PORTION OF
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS ALSO LOW.//
NNNN

[doomhaMwx]

Not a tropical storm...

[euro6208]

Downgraded to a TD.

04W FOUR 190630 0600 16.4N 128.3E WPAC 30 1000

[Hayabusa]

Back to TD, WPAC has yet to have a true TC since Wutip

WDPN31 PGTW 300900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (FOUR)
WARNING NR 07//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 436 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND A 300133Z ASCAT METOP-C PASS. THE
INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T2.0-T2.5 FROM KNES AND PGTW, RESPECTIVELY. TD 04W IS
TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BECOME BROAD AND ELONGATED IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. ALTHOUGH A
PATCH OF DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF
THE CIRCULATION, NEARLY ALL CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED NEAR THE
CENTER. THIS STRUCTURAL CHANGE SUGGESTS THAT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) IS AFFECTING THE SYSTEM MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED.
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT REMAINS STRONG, AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
VERY SUPPORTIVE AT ABOUT 30 DEGREES CELSIUS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. FORECAST INTENSITIES HAVE BEEN REDUCED FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING
BASED ON ONGOING AND ANTICIPATED DISRUPTION TO THE STORM STRUCTURE BY
PERSISTENT VWS. OTHERWISE, THERE IS NO MAJOR CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
B. TD 04W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD FOLLOWING
THE STEERING FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING TO THE
NORTH AND EAST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. VWS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY
THROUGH TAU 48, WHICH MAY ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH
WITH THE SUPPORT OF VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND STRONG
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. HOWEVER, RECENT DISORGANIZATION OF THE STORM
STRUCTURE MAY HAMPER FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND LEAVE THE STORM
VULNERABLE TO DISSIPATING EARLIER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST
INDICATES. THIS EARLY DISSIPATION IS CONSIDERED A PLAUSIBLE ALTERNATE
SCENARIO TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT REGARDING THE GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OF TD 04W THROUGH
TAU 72, ALTHOUGH THE LATEST NAVGEM RUN PREDICTS RECURVATURE OF A
STRONGER THAN EXPECTED SYSTEM TO THE EAST OF TAIWAN AND SEVERAL
MODELS DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE CURRENT FORECAST
TRACK IS CONSERVATIVELY CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK
AND IS SUPPORTED BY SEVERAL MODEL SOLUTIONS. GIVEN NOTED MODEL
DIVERGENCE, CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK IS LOW.
NNNN

[dexterlabio]

Idk but at this rate, I think we might see the basin's next "real" TC sometime in September. I just feel like the second-year weak El Nino curse in WPAC is real.

[euro6208]

WTPN31 PGTW 301500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (FOUR) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (FOUR) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z --- NEAR 18.4N 126.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 23 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 18.4N 126.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 19.9N 124.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 20.9N 122.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
301500Z POSITION NEAR 18.8N 126.1E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 395 NM
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 23
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A DISORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH A SMALL AREA OF FRAGMENTED
CONVECTION SHEARED SOUTHWESTWARD OF A RAGGED, EXPOSED, AND
ILL-DEFINED CIRCULATION. A 301201Z DIRECT METOP-A ASCAT PASS
INDICATES THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS UNRAVELED INTO A BROAD, WEAK
CIRCULATION. THE SAME ASCAT IMAGERY AND AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW AND RJTD INDICATE THE TD HAS WEAKENED TO BELOW JTWC WARNING
CRITERIA AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO RECOVER AS IT TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD IN
THE PHILIPPINE SEA UNDER SUSTAINED HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS IS
THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 9 FEET.//
NNNN