EPAC: ALVIN - Remnants

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Re: EPAC: 93E INVEST

#21 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jun 24, 2019 6:38 pm

Up to 60/70:
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Jun 24 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Satellite imagery indciates that a broad area of low pressure has
formed in association with the tropical wave located a few hundred
miles south of the southern coast of Mexico, and that the
accompanying shower activity is showing signs of organization.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form within the next few days while the system moves
west-northwestward away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Beven


Also pretty decent support from HWRF and HMON.
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Re: EPAC: 93E INVEST

#22 Postby Nancy Smar » Mon Jun 24, 2019 10:53 pm

WTPN21 PHNC 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
190 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.0N 100.5W TO 16.9N 109.3W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
250230Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N
101.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93E) IS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N
101.5W, APPROXIMATELY 225NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FORMATIVE BANDING. A 250012Z SSMIS
91GHZ IMAGE SHOWS SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A BROAD
LLC WITH FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
GOOD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH
STEADY INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
260300Z.//
NNNN

TCFA
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Re: EPAC: 93E INVEST

#23 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jun 25, 2019 12:38 am

Looking better with deep concentrated convection near the COC:
Image
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Re: EPAC: 93E INVEST

#24 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jun 25, 2019 12:40 am

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Mon Jun 24 2019
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
1. Shower activity associated with the broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico has become more concentrated this evening. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system for the next couple of days, and a tropical depression is likely to form during this time while the system moves west-northwestward away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. Forecaster Beven


Up to 70/70. Should be higher or a TD but they probably want to see it maintain convection longer than just a few hours.
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Re: EPAC: 93E INVEST

#25 Postby Chris90 » Tue Jun 25, 2019 1:58 am

:uarrow: Agree. I would go higher than 70/70 as well, I think the only thing they're waiting on is persistence. It looks a lot better though, even compared to a few hours ago. I think we could finally have Alvin within 24 hours though if the convection maintains.
I'm not going to get my hopes up though. I've resigned myself to simply tracking invests.
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Re: EPAC: 93E INVEST

#26 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jun 25, 2019 3:52 am

1.0/1.0 from SAB.
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Re: EPAC: 93E INVEST

#27 Postby Sciencerocks » Tue Jun 25, 2019 4:20 am

Image
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Re: EPAC: 93E INVEST

#28 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Jun 25, 2019 8:08 am

25/1200 UTC 15.4N 103.5W T1.0/1.0 93E -- East Pacific
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Re: EPAC: 93E INVEST

#29 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jun 25, 2019 12:59 pm

HWRF makes this a cat.1 hurricane. HMON peaks it @ 50kts.
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Re: EPAC: 93E INVEST

#30 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 25, 2019 1:54 pm

Here we go.

25/1800 UTC 15.8N 105.3W T1.5/1.5 93E -- East Pacific
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Re: EPAC: 93E INVEST

#31 Postby Sciencerocks » Tue Jun 25, 2019 2:44 pm

I'd argue depression
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Re: EPAC: 93E INVEST

#32 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jun 25, 2019 2:55 pm

:uarrow: Hard to believe it's not a depression at this point. All that banding and persistent deep convection near the LLC? You could argue it's a TS.
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Re: EPAC: 93E INVEST

#33 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jun 25, 2019 3:05 pm

Looks like we have TD01E.

Edit: This GMI pass probably forced them to, but arguablly with this presentation they should go 50MPH Alvin:
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Re: EPAC: 93E INVEST

#34 Postby CyclonicFury » Tue Jun 25, 2019 3:08 pm

Yeah, looks like we'll likely see advisories at 2:00 p.m. PDT. It has about 30-36 hours to strengthen before it encounters cooler water, dry air and increasing shear. A peak around 40-45 knots seems reasonable tomorrow before becoming a remnant low on Thursday or Friday.
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Re: EPAC: 93E INVEST

#35 Postby Chris90 » Tue Jun 25, 2019 3:32 pm

It looks like it might be in the beginning stages of developing a decently compact core, so it might exceed expectations. My high-end prediction is for 75kts. I'm expecting more like 50-55kts, but we'll see how the next 24 hours go.
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Re: EPAC: 93E INVEST

#36 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jun 25, 2019 3:35 pm

Chris90 wrote:It looks like it might be in the beginning stages of developing a decently compact core, so it might exceed expectations. My high-end prediction is for 75kts. I'm expecting more like 50-55kts, but we'll see how the next 24 hours go.

Your high-end prediction is near the 12z HWRF peak of about 70kts.
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Re: EPAC: Tropical Depression 01

#37 Postby TorSkk » Tue Jun 25, 2019 3:39 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression One-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012019
400 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019

...FIRST TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE 2019 EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE
SEASON FORMS...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 105.7W
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 600 MI...960 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

Convection associated with the area of low pressure located south of
the coast of Mexico has become sufficiently well organized today,
and visible satellite imagery suggest that the system has acquired a
well-defined center. Based on these observations, advisories are
being initiated on the first tropical depression of the 2019
eastern Pacific hurricane season. The latest Dvorak T-numbers from
TAFB and SAB are 2.0 and 1.5 respectively, and the initial wind
speed has been set at 25 kt. The depression is forecast to remain
over warm sea surface temperatures and within a low wind shear
environment during the next couple of days. Although there is some
dry mid-level air to the west of the cyclone, modest strengthening
is indicated by most of the intensity guidance, and the NHC foreast
follows suit. After 48 hours, increasing south-southwesterly shear
and cooler waters are expected to cause weakening, and the system is
forecast to become a remnant low in 3 to 4 days.

The somewhat uncertain initial motion estimate is 290/13 kt. A
mid-level ridge extending from northwestern Mexico into the eastern
Pacific should steer the cyclone west-northwestward during the next
few days. There is spread in the guidance as to how much latitude
the system will gain over the next few days. The ECMWF which does
not deepen the system much, if at all, shows a more southern track
than the remainder of the guidance. The NHC forecast assumes that
the system will strengthen some and shows a more climatological
west-northwestward track close to the multi-model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 15.2N 105.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 15.8N 107.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 16.2N 110.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 16.7N 113.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 27/1800Z 17.4N 115.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 28/1800Z 18.5N 119.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
96H 29/1800Z 18.8N 122.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: EPAC: 93E INVEST

#38 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Jun 25, 2019 3:47 pm

There's probably enough time to become a minimal tropical storm as long as this doesn't fall apart quickly. Conditions are decently conducive, with warm waters and low shear the rest of today and tomorrow. There's some chance it could exceeded expectations completly but I wouldn't bank on it though it would be nice.
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Re: EPAC: ONE-E - Tropical Depression

#39 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jun 25, 2019 3:50 pm

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Re: EPAC: ONE-E - Tropical Depression

#40 Postby CyclonicFury » Tue Jun 25, 2019 3:53 pm

:uarrow:
Wow, that's pretty impressive. Actually, a high-end TS seems very possible if there is already a low-level eye developing. Wouldn't rule out it briefly reaching minimal hurricane intensity either.
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