EPAC: BARBARA - Remnants

[cycloneye]

00z Euro again does the crossover but more south than GFS.

[cycloneye]

80%/90%

A broad area of showers and thunderstorms located well to the
southwest of the southern coast of Mexico is associated with a
tropical wave. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression
is likely to form late this weekend or early next week while the
disturbance moves westward to west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[NotSparta]

Definitely appears to be organizing

[cycloneye]

Agreed.Is taking that S look.

12z Best Track:

Location: 8.3°N 104.8°W
Maximum Winds: 20 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1008 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1010 mb
Radius of Circulation: 200 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 90 NM

[Ntxw]

Looking great. Well on its way.

[cycloneye]

If this trend continues,I will not be surprised if they go to TD this afternoon or tonight.

[Kingarabian]

Definitely appears to be organizing

[url]https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c1953bd1a516cc9ef957548b6fce0fe3e0c2e28ccb69d73850ba57e8caca9b94.png[url]

Nice snapshot of it . Looks like a WPAC invest with very healthy blossoming convection.

[Kingarabian]

:uarrow: If this trend continues,I will not be surprised if they go to TD this afternoon or tonight.

At this rate, its developing sooner than what the models are indicating.

[1900hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1144989396774662145

[cycloneye]

Yikes! Quickly Is almost a TD. Any ASCAT pass to see how is the windfield?

[1900hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1144990729116225537

[NotSparta]

Strong easterlies exist north of 94E, in contrast w/ the monsoon westerlies. This is acting to enhance its vorticity, which will allow it to organize at an accelerated pace

[cycloneye]

I noticed Kingarabian that 12z GFS has competing low that cause it to not develop fast as we are seeing in real time.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS is now with Euro and goes south of Hilo as it weakens.

[cycloneye]

90%/90%

A broad area of low pressure has developed well to the southwest of
the southern coast of Mexico. The associated showers and
thunderstorms are gradually becoming better organized, and a
tropical depression is likely to form in the next day or two while
the disturbance moves westward to west-northwestward at about 15
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[Kingarabian]

12z GFS is now with Euro and goes south of Hilo as it weakens.

[url]https://i.imgur.com/aldlS0l.png[/rl]

Still about 10 days so plenty iof changes are in store out but nearly all the models are in agreement for a track south of Hawaii. Hopefully no recurves.

[cycloneye]

Strongest run yet from euro.(966 mbs in 120 hours)

[cycloneye]

First classification from SSD.

29/1800 UTC 8.8N 105.2W T1.0/1.0 94E -- East Pacific

TXPZ21 KNES 291819
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (94E)

B. 29/1800Z

C. 8.8N

D. 105.2W

E. FIVE/GOES-W

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...GREATER THAN 2/10 BANDING RESULTS IN DT OF 1.0. MET AND
PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TURK

[cycloneye]

12z Euro ends with this strong Barbara not far from Hilo.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track:

Location: 9.2°N 105.7°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1010 mb
Radius of Circulation: 200 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 90 NM