EPAC: BARBARA - Remnants

[cycloneye]

The models develop this into a strong hurricane that will ramp up plenty of ACE units if they are right.

A tropical wave located several hundred miles south-southwest
of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for the development of this system over the next several
days, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this weekend
or early next week while the disturbance moves westward to west-
northwestward well away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[Kingarabian]

This should be Barbara by late Sunday or early Monday. Foecast track can easily change but GFS and Euro showing this as our first basin crosser.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/WxTca/status/1144628304034652160

[cycloneye]

Kingarabian,in your neck of the woods. Hawaii must watch future Barbara very closely.12z GFS has a direct hit.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Jun 28 2019

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles
south of Acapulco, Mexico are associated with a tropical wave.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for the
development of this system over the next several days, and a
tropical depression is likely to form late this weekend or early
next week while the disturbance moves westward to west-
northwestward well away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[Ntxw]

Have to agree with Kingarabian that this will be Barbara late Sunday or Monday morning. It will quickly ramp up to MH, my guess is low end Cat 4 at peak. Maybe stronger if it takes a southern route.

Another nervous start to a season for Hawaii.

[cycloneye]

Way down there in latutud and this favors strong longtracker that will crossover to CPAC.

18z Best Track:

Location: 7.9°N 101.7°W
Maximum Winds: 20 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1009 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1010 mb
Radius of Circulation: 200 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 90 NM

[Kingarabian]

Way down there in latutud and this favors strong longtracker that will crossover to CPAC.

18z Best Track:

Location: 7.9°N 101.7°W
Maximum Winds: 20 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1009 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1010 mb
Radius of Circulation: 200 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 90 NM

Good point, because this is exactly it. It's still early in the season where there is typically enough troughing to take these system out to sea. Usually it's late July when basin crossers start to emerge.

[Kingarabian]

Have to agree with Kingarabian that this will be Barbara late Sunday or Monday morning. It will quickly ramp up to MH, my guess is low end Cat 4 at peak. Maybe stronger if it takes a southern route.

Another nervous start to a season for Hawaii.

These usually have 145-150mph written all over them. But it should at least get to MH status to be on the safe side.

[NotSparta]

Have to agree with Kingarabian that this will be Barbara late Sunday or Monday morning. It will quickly ramp up to MH, my guess is low end Cat 4 at peak. Maybe stronger if it takes a southern route.

Another nervous start to a season for Hawaii.

These usually have 145-150mph written all over them. But it should at least get to MH status to be on the safe side.

imo, it's a bit too early for that kind of thing, going into the CPAC. Unless you mean further to the east

[Kingarabian]

Have to agree with Kingarabian that this will be Barbara late Sunday or Monday morning. It will quickly ramp up to MH, my guess is low end Cat 4 at peak. Maybe stronger if it takes a southern route.

Another nervous start to a season for Hawaii.

These usually have 145-150mph written all over them. But it should at least get to MH status to be on the safe side.

imo, it's a bit too early for that kind of thing, going into the CPAC. Unless you mean further to the east

To early for a strong major or a track towards the CPAC?

[NotSparta]

These usually have 145-150mph written all over them. But it should at least get to MH status to be on the safe side.

imo, it's a bit too early for that kind of thing, going into the CPAC. Unless you mean further to the east

To early for a strong major or a track towards the CPAC?

A track to the CPAC is a tad early but seems realistic given this season. I just believe that it'd be difficult to reach that kind of intensity (145-150mph) unless it's still rather far east. Though you know more than me about this

[Kingarabian]

imo, it's a bit too early for that kind of thing, going into the CPAC. Unless you mean further to the east

To early for a strong major or a track towards the CPAC?

A track to the CPAC is a tad early but seems realistic given this season. I just believe that it'd be difficult to reach that kind of intensity (145-150mph) unless it's still rather far east. Though you know more than me about this

You certainly have a point. It's usually the long trackers or the systems that from in the far eastern Pacific that blow up and reach major hurricane levels. I think as long as there is a path that keeps future Barbara on WNW track, there's a big window for it to be a very intense system. Hurricane Fernanda 2017 is a good example although it developed about 10 days later than soon to be Barbara.

[cycloneye]

60%/90%

An elongated area of showers and thunderstorms located well to the
southwest of the southern coast of Mexico is associated with a
tropical wave. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression
is likely to form late this weekend or early next week while the
disturbance moves westward to west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[Chris90]

I think Fernanda '17 could be a pretty decent example. I'm in agreement that this has a good shot at going major, and I'm going to guess at a peak of 120kts.

Just for fun, would anyone like to play a game of longitudinal limbo, "how far west can future Barbara go?'
There isn't even a classified system yet, so models will probably change quite a bit in the next few days, but I'll go ahead and guess that Barbara makes it to 149W by her final advisory.

[NotSparta]

I think this storm will give me a better example to use as the satellite image example on my site

[cycloneye]

00z best track:

Location: 7.9°N 102.9°W
Maximum Winds: 20 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1008 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1010 mb
Radius of Circulation: 200 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 90 NM

[cycloneye]

Another run by GFS (00z) again reach Hawaii but weakens as it approaches.

[Kingarabian]

Another run by GFS (00z) again reach Hawaii but weakens as it approaches.

Hopefully that belt of shear stays in place. Also how fast 94E spins up will have huge implications in the track and intensity. Models are in good agreement that future Barbra will gain enough latitude that lines it close to Hawaii, either from a weakness or simply rounding a ridge.

[cycloneye]

70%/90%

An elongated area of showers and thunderstorms located well to the
southwest of the southern coast of Mexico is associated with a
tropical wave. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression
is likely to form late this weekend or early next week while the
disturbance moves westward to west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.