EPAC: BARBARA - Remnants

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 02, 2019070218, , BEST, 0, 127N, 1227W, 125, 942, HU, 64, NEQ, 30, 20, 20, 30, 1009, 210, 15, 145, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, BARBARA, D, 12, NEQ, 300, 270, 150, 210, genesis-num, 008,
EP, 02, 2019070300, , BEST, 0, 130N, 1240W, 135, 933, HU, 34, NEQ, 140, 160, 100, 120, 1009, 210, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, BARBARA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 008,
EP, 02, 2019070300, , BEST, 0, 130N, 1240W, 135, 933, HU, 50, NEQ, 80, 70, 40, 60, 1009, 210, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, BARBARA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 008,
EP, 02, 2019070300, , BEST, 0, 130N, 1240W, 135, 933, HU, 64, NEQ, 40, 30, 20, 30, 1009, 210, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, BARBARA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 008,

Wondering if TAFB was 7.0 and SAB actually cost us a Cat 5...

I think if it keeps it structure, Stewart will come through.

FWIW Stewart did the 0z TWO.

[Yellow Evan]

Worried about the S side now.

[Kingarabian]

HMON keeps it @ 130kts or higher for the next 20 hours or so.

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 03 JUL 2019 Time : 002033 UTC
Lat : 13:04:11 N Lon : 124:08:23 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.9 / 925.9mb/137.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.9 7.0 7.0

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 23 km

Center Temp : +20.3C Cloud Region Temp : -72.0C

Scene Type : EYE

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1146211116558798850

[Yellow Evan]

This was the frame SAB graded BTW. Might have been a hair short on the south tbh but I don't have a ruler on me.

[Kingarabian]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 03 JUL 2019 Time : 005033 UTC
Lat : 13:04:11 N Lon : 124:12:35 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.9 / 925.0mb/137.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.9 6.9 6.9

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 23 km

Center Temp : +18.3C Cloud Region Temp : -71.7C

Scene Type : EYE

[Yellow Evan]

Cloud tops warming on the E. Probably peaking now.

[Kingarabian]

Considering its impressive IR/VIS appearance its microwave appearance has been lacking:

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1146227517038059520

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 03 JUL 2019 Time : 012033 UTC
Lat : 13:05:24 N Lon : 124:18:35 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.9 / 925.0mb/137.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.9 6.9 6.9

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 23 km

Center Temp : +19.3C Cloud Region Temp : -71.6C

Scene Type : EYE

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Barbara Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022019
500 PM HST Tue Jul 02 2019

GOES-17 visible and infrared satellite images, along with passive
microwave satellite data, indicate that Barbara has continued to
rapidly intensify. A 15-nmi diameter clear eye with temperatures
warmer than 21 deg C has developed in the center of a circular CDO
feature consisting of cloud tops colder than -70 deg C. Satellite
intensity estimates have been vacillating between T6.8/135 kt from
UW-CIMSS ADT to T7.0/140 kt from TAFB, NHC objective-AODT, and CIMSS
SATCON. Since the T7.0/140-kt estimates have only been intermittent,
the intensity has been raised to a solid 135 kt, or just below the
category-5 threshold.

The initial motion estimate is 285/12 kt. There is no change to
previous forecast discussions. Barbara is forecast to remain south
of a pronounced deep-layer ridge throughout the forecast period,
resulting in west-northwestward to northwestward motion through 48
hours, followed by a turn toward the west by 72 hours when Barbara
is expected to be a rapidly weakening and vertically shallow
cyclone. The latest NHC track guidance is tightly packed around the
previous forecast track, so the new official forecast track is
essentially just an update and an extension of the previous advisory
track, and closely follows a blend of the consensus models HCCA,
TVCE, and TVDG.

Barbara has probably peaked in intensity, although another 5-kt
increase in strength tonight during the convective maximum period is
a distinct possibility, which would bring the powerful hurricane to
category 5 status. However, all of the available intensity guidance
is unanimous in indicating a weakening trend will begin in 12 hours
or so due to the development of cold upwelling beneath the
hurricane, coupled with a likely eyewall replacement cycle. The
26-deg-C SST isotherm lies east-west along 17N latitude, and Barbara
is forecast to move over much cooler waters by 48 hours, at which
time more prodigious cold upwelling beneath the cyclone is expected
to develop, causing a rapid weakening trend to ensue. Increasing
southwesterly to westerly vertical wind shear in excess of 20 kt is
forecast to develop by 96 hours, resulting in Barbara degenerating
into a post-tropical low by the time the cyclone moves west of 140W
longitude and into the central Pacific basin. The new NHC official
intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and is a
little lower than the intensity consensus models HCCA and IVCN.

NOTE: Beginning this hurricane season, all National Hurricane
Center eastern Pacific advisory products that utilize local time,
and the corresponding graphical products, will use Hawaiian Standard
Time (HST) instead of Pacific Daylight Time (PDT) or Standard Time
(PST) if the final forecast point is west of 140W. Since Barbara's
day 5 official forecast point is now west of 140W, advisory products
are now being issued in Hawaiian Standard Time.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0300Z 13.1N 124.6W 135 KT 155 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 13.7N 126.0W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 14.7N 127.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 04/1200Z 15.9N 129.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 05/0000Z 17.1N 131.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 06/0000Z 18.9N 135.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 07/0000Z 19.2N 140.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 08/0000Z 19.0N 147.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[Dylan]

 https://twitter.com/dylanfedericowx/status/1146254052004638720

[1900hurricane]

Perhaps an unpopular opinion, but I actually like the 135 kt at 00Z (although I wouldn't fight 140 kt either). Microwave intensity estimates have been lagging behind a bit. The highest individual microwave estimate, an ATMS pass, was only about 125 kt.

[Chris90]

Possible eyewall replacement going on? It isn't super noticeable, but it looks like there is a new eyewall forming and wrapping around the inner eyewall at very close proximity.

Also, YAY, I finally got an image to embed in my post. I guess I just had to get on my laptop to do it, my phone apparently isn't capable.

[HurricaneRyan]

Next time don't set Buzz's mode to Spanish, Ken. Look what you made Barbie do.

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Barbara Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022019
1100 PM HST Tue Jul 02 2019

Barbara appears to have reached its peak intensity. The solid
white ring that had surrounded the eye in the Dvorak enhancement at
the time of the previous advisory has eroded, and the eye is not
quite as warm. Although Dvorak T-numbers have fallen as a result,
Barbara's winds would likely take some time to respond, and the
initial intensity is held at 135 kt as a blend of subjective and
objective Dvorak CI numbers.

There are a couple of factors, internal and external, that should
lead to gradual weakening in the short term. First, the layer of
warm water at the ocean's surface ahead of Barbara is becoming
shallower, with oceanic heat content values falling to zero in the
next 48 hours. Second, a very recent GPM microwave overpass suggests
that Barbara is developing a concentric eyewall structure, which
tends to precede an eyewall replacement and associated weakening.
Once weakening is underway due to these circumstances, deep-layer
southwesterly shear is then expected to increase over 20 kt from 48
hours and beyond. The intensity models on this cycle are
suggesting that Barbara's weakening rate could be a little faster
than shown previously after 48 hours, and this is reflected in the
new NHC official forecast, which lies close to the HCCA model and
the intensity consensus. Barbara could lose its deep convection,
and thus become post tropical, around the time it is forecast to
cross 140W into the central Pacific basin.

Barbara continues to move west-northwestward, or 285/12 kt, along
the southwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge. There has
been no change in the track forecast reasoning, with the hurricane
expected to turn northwestward and slow down during the next 36
hours as it approaches a large break in the ridge near and east of
the Hawaiian Islands. Once Barbara weakens and becomes a shallower
system, it should then turn back to the west and accelerate on days
3 through 5. The new NHC forecast has been adjusted slightly
southward for much of the forecast period in order to fall closer
to the model consensus solutions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 13.5N 125.6W 135 KT 155 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 14.1N 127.0W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 15.1N 128.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 04/1800Z 16.3N 130.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 05/0600Z 17.4N 132.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 06/0600Z 18.9N 136.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 07/0600Z 19.0N 142.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 08/0600Z 18.5N 149.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg

[1900hurricane]

Here's that GPM pass NHC referenced. Pretty easy to see the concentric eyewalls here.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1146387963917606912

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1146401781297160192