EPAC: BARBARA - Remnants

[Kingarabian]

The day 9 to 10 weakening is due to moving over a 10k volcano in all likelihood.

I expect shear to be a problem in general though.

Yeah. High resolution Euro shows a 976mb landfall with nearly 70kt winds making landfall between Hilo and Puna at hour 228. Between hours 228-234, it gets torn apart by one of the volcanoes.

[NotSparta]

Barbara's convection is a bit south displaced, as you can see generally where the LLC lies, north of the center of the convective blob.

https://i.imgur.com/FfXJGRd.gif

That's pretty normal for a monsoon trough system early in its life, even in a low shear environment. As it detaches, some of the best low level convergence still remains on the south side of the system with the monsoon trough. It happens quite a bit in the Western Pacific too.

Interesting, good to know

[cycloneye]

Up to 95 kts the peak but they have this sentence:

The various rapid intensification indices
suggest a 40-50 percent chance of rapid intensification from 12-72
h, and if this occurs Barbara could become a major hurricane.

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Barbara Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022019
300 PM MDT Sun Jun 30 2019

...BARBARA MOVING WESTWARD AND STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.9N 112.2W
ABOUT 840 MI...1355 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


Tropical Storm Barbara Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022019
300 PM MDT Sun Jun 30 2019

The cloud pattern of Barbara is slowly becoming better organized,
with a curved convective band now forming in the southeastern
semicircle. A recent ASCAT overpass indicates that maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 40 kt, and that a large area
of tropical-storm force winds now wraps more than halfway around the
center. However, the wind data also show a significant trough
extending southwestward from the center into the Intertropical
Convergence Zone.

The initial motion is now 280/16. A mid-level ridge to the north of
the cyclone should steer it westward to west-northwestward for the
next 48 h or so with a gradual decrease in forward speed. After
that, a weakness in the ridge should allow a west- northwesterly
motion for the rest of the forecast period. The track guidance
remains fairly tightly clustered between the HWRF on the north side
of the envelope and the ECMWF on the south side. The new forecast,
which is similar to the previous forecast, lies near both the center
of the guidance envelope and the various consensus models.

Some northwesterly vertical wind shear continues to affect Barbara,
and this should persist for another 12 h or so. After that, the
cyclone should be in an environment of light shear and over warm sea
surface temperatures through 72 h. The intensity forecast thus
calls for slow development through 12 h and a faster rate of
development thereafter. The various rapid intensification indices
suggest a 40-50 percent chance of rapid intensification from 12-72
h, and if this occurs Barbara could become a major hurricane. Beyond
72 h, the forecast track takes the center over decreasing water
temperatures and into renewed shear, which should cause some
weakening. How much weakening, though, is going to be tied to how
far over the colder water the cyclone moves, with a more northerly
track resulting in a weaker storm then currently forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/2100Z 10.9N 112.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 11.4N 114.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 11.9N 117.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 12.2N 120.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 02/1800Z 12.6N 122.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 03/1800Z 14.0N 126.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 04/1800Z 15.5N 129.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 05/1800Z 16.5N 133.0W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

NNNN

[Kingarabian]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 JUN 2019 Time : 205034 UTC
Lat : 10:53:24 N Lon : 112:09:24 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.0 /1000.1mb/ 45.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.0 3.3 3.7

[Dylan]

 https://twitter.com/DylanFedericoWX/status/1145461407414177793

[Kingarabian]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1145440420312178689

[cycloneye]

Kingarabian,prepare for a great discussion and possible changes on the peak intensity in the next advisory from Stacey.

[Kingarabian]

Kingarabian,prepare for a great discussion and possible changes on the peak intensity in the next advisory from Stacey.

Yeah I hope he has the shift because I'm interested in reading what they think will happen. 18z GFS continues to show a considerable difference in the steering pattern compared to the Euro.



Meanwhile Barbara continues to ramp up:


I wonder if explosive RI is in the cards. It's giving me some 2015 Jimena vibes.

[Ntxw]

I'm definitely getting Jimena 15 vibes too. Thinking 130kts might not be unreasonable for peak now. We'll some spectacular satellite images soon. Plenty of warm water ahead.

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 JUN 2019 Time : 225033 UTC
Lat : 11:00:48 N Lon : 112:42:38 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.3 / 996.3mb/ 51.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.3 3.3 3.8

Center Temp : -72.8C Cloud Region Temp : -69.6C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

[cycloneye]

Kingarabian,prepare for a great discussion and possible changes on the peak intensity in the next advisory from Stacey.

Yeah I hope he has the shift because I'm interested in reading what they think will happen. 18z GFS continues to show a considerable difference in the steering pattern compared to the Euro.
]https://i.imgur.com/M77mEhZ.gif


Meanwhile Barbara continues to ramp up:
https://i.imgur.com/2GlqGZT.gif

I wonder if explosive RI is in the cards. It's giving me some 2015 Jimena vibes.

It will be him as he made the TWO.Agree on the vibes on Jimena.

[Kingarabian]

This SSMIS F16 pass appears to show that Barbara has developed a core. It would be a big step in starting the RI process:

[cycloneye]

SAB up to 3.0

TXPZ21 KNES 010021
TCSENP

A. 02E (BARBARA)

B. 01/0000Z

C. 10.8N

D. 112.6W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...6/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 3.0. MET IS 2.5 AND PT IS
3.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL

[Ntxw]

That tail.

[Yellow Evan]

This seems promising but I’m unsure if this will get as strong as Jimena did in 2015. This needs a strong inner core that will avoid dry air problems. Also unsure on when exactly this will get blasted apart by the inevitable increase in SW shear but this has potential to be our first long tracker of the year.

[Kingarabian]

That tail.

[url]https://images2.imgbox.com/76/b7/l8pUBVi5_o.gif[/ul]

Ominous...

[Chris90]

This SSMIS F16 pass appears to show that Barbara has developed a core. It would be a big step in starting the RI process

There's some great banding going on, especially in the southern portions of her circulation, but I think we're still a little ways away from her being ready for RI. Satellite appearance is improving faster than her microwave presentation in my opinion. I still don't see a cyan ring on 37ghz, and the mid levels need work as well. I think there's still some core building to be done, especially in the northern parts of the circulation. When that's done, I think it'll be all systems go for the pressure to drop and winds to spike up.
I think we're still 12-24 hours away from the start of a true RI cycle though.

[TheStormExpert]

And just like that the Eastern Pacific has turned on!

[plasticup]

That tail.

https://images2.imgbox.com/76/b7/l8pUBVi5_o.gif

She's a beaut, alright.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track up to 45 kts.

Location: 10.9°N 113.2°W
Maximum Winds: 45 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1008 mb
Radius of Circulation: 150 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 30 NM

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 02, 2019070100, , BEST, 0, 109N, 1133W, 45, 1000, TS, 34, NEQ, 70, 80, 80, 60, 1008, 150, 30, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, BARBARA, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 008,