ATL: BARRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Innotech]

Barry has announced its presence now.

[AnnularCane]

Landfall aaaaand the thread dies...

Everybody must be exhausted.

[Hurricane_Apu]

Barry has announced its presence now.

Most definitely. Big, roaring gusts you can hear coming 20-30 seconds in advance...

Power flickering now

[Blinhart]

Landfall aaaaand the thread dies...

Everybody must be exhausted.

I know I have been taking naps as much as possible just in case we do lose power, the heat will be oppressive if we do lose power and won't be able to sleep. Also most of us are just so confused by this system, it has made landfall and is up by Alexandria, but most of the rain is still at the coast or over water and we don't know what to expect.

[Hurricane_Apu]

...and there's the band setting up over New Orleans.

[Steve]

...and there's the band setting up over New Orleans.

Tornado warning just went off twice. I’m missing the first red band of the day because I’m on the other side of town. :/

[Chris_in_Tampa]

The NHC has already provided the basis for why they upgraded, but I did want to speak about the recon part of it. Below are from the last mission, Air Force mission 11.


Ob 23:
http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon ... 06.4-75-56
14:45:30Z:
28.983N 91.133W
Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.): 75 knots (86.3 mph)


Ob 24:
http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon ... 02.5-74-63

14:48:00Z:
29.100N 91.250W (about 9 miles offshore)
Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.): 74 knots (85.2 mph)
Peak (10 sec. Avg.) Flight Level Wind: 76 knots (87.5 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind: 64 knots (73.6 mph) ... Noted as suspect

14:48:30Z:
29.117N 91.283W (about 8.5 miles offshore)
Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.): 71 knots (81.7 mph)
Peak (10 sec. Avg.) Flight Level Wind: 73 knots (84.0 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind: 63 knots (72.5 mph)


Both obs around 840mb, 5,000 feet.

In ob 24 noted the SFMR was 64 knots, but noted as suspect, and in the next 30 seconds the SFMR was 63 knots and not noted as suspect. The 30 second flight level wind during the 30 seconds the SFMR was noted as suspect was 74 knots. 10 second flight level wind was 76 knots. The highest SFMR was about where the highest flight level winds were. It was offshore. While the waters may be shallow out there, I don't know, the estimated surface winds seem like they are likely valid even if many are noted as suspect at that time. Given the flight level winds, they seem perfectly reasonable.

Some notes about my site, Tropical Atlantic, in case some of the numbers seem confusing.

Here is a list of missions for Barry that had HDOB messages:
http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon ... oduct=hdob

Suspect values are not included in the winds. So the "Highest SFMR Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind" is 63 knots for mission 11 in that list. In mission 8 there was a 65 knot estimate that was not noted as suspect. That did not seem to be representative, though it may not have been completely invalid. When there is a question, I usually leave the value in that list. If something is very inaccurate I remove the high, or low (such as pressure), reading from the column by removing the value from the file name for the ob on my site. That is where values for the list come from. If I change the file name (the "ob" part of the links above), which was created based on values in the ob, the list will be updated.

10 second flight level winds are not included in the list.

While the 63 knots should perhaps be 64 knots, I never make a change like that. If something is noted as suspect I would never modify it unless the NHC specifically said it should be in a discussion.

This is a list of missions with vortex messages with Barry:
http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon ... uct=vortex

Only vortex messages processed get included in the high and low values in that list. The last mission only had one vortex message. Any higher wind readings after the vortex message was completed were therefore not included in the vortex message. Because suspect readings are usually not in a vortex message, suspect readings are unlikely to be included in the list.

For mission 11, the one vortex message had 72 knots for highest flight level wind and 63 knots for surface wind. There were higher winds found later and they were not included in the vortex message. The 72 knots was from Ob 04. (peak 10 second flight level wind) The 63 knots (10 second estimated surface wind at 29.383N 91.400W) was from Ob 05. It was actually extremely close to land, if not over it, and was likely not accurate because at the very least it would have been very shallow. But it was included in the vortex message.

Mission 8 had a vortex message with a 73 knot flight level wind.

Because vortex messages have likely undergone more review, the values for the main storm list here:
http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon ... chive=2019
Use vortex messages.

That means these are the high values for Barry noted on my site:
Highest Flight Level Wind: 73 knots
Highest Est. Surface Wind: 63 knots

That 73 knots comes from mission 8. But mission 11 actually had 76 knot 10 second flight level winds in Obs 24 and 30. And that 63 knots is actually a reading that should likely have been suspect, but there just happened to be another 63 knots after the vortex messages were no longer released that would have also made the value 63 knots. Because 64 knots was suspect, it would not have likely been included in the vortex message had one been released at that point.

The point is, values on my site need to be researched more closely if people are getting them from it. The archive is raw because it operates in real time. I rarely make any changes to a file name so that a list doesn't reflect a value that clearly seems wrong. The ob of course still remains. And for the storm summary that uses vortex data, I don't see a better way. Other data would be even less reviewed and more subject to error. I have noted on pages how data is calculated in those lists and if I were to force a modification to a particular set of data it would be very confusing. So the numbers in the archive will always be:
Highest Flight Level Wind: 73 knots
Highest Est. Surface Wind: 63 knots
For Barry.

[Steve]

And a flash flood warning. Kind of about time.

[CajunMama]

Barry has announced its presence now.

Most definitely. Big, roaring gusts you can hear coming 20-30 seconds in advance...

Power flickering now

It’s nice when your connected to the hospital (OLOL & Women’s) electrical grid

[Snowman67]

Looks like some pretty heavy training going on just east of N.O. Estimates of 2.5-3.0 in /hour

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1150212496931860485

[ScottNAtlanta]

Is it just me, or does anyone else see a MLC out over water starting to spin?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... t=vis-swir

[Puddinhead]

...and there's the band setting up over New Orleans.

Tornado warning just went off twice. I’m missing the first red band of the day because I’m on the other side of town. :/

I'm about three blocks west of the warning box. LOL

[CrazyC83]

It definitely appears that dry air, along with the mid-level shear, has kept everything over the Gulf. I'd laugh if there is a center reformation over water...

[daromaine]

So anyone with any thoughts on how long this wind/rain will last in Lafayette area? Headed to Houston tomorrow night at 930 by bus -- thanks.

[Craters]

I'm looking at the radar over LA and it looks like the mesovorts are still running the show! The things don't know when to quit.

[CrazyC83]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Here is what I would UNOFFICIALLY have as a Best Track, so far, for Barry (while over water; excluding the overland pre-genesis).

AL022019, BARRY, 20,
20190709, 1800, , LO, 29.9N, 84.2W, 20, 1012,
20190710, 0000, , LO, 29.3N, 84.7W, 20, 1012,
20190710, 0600, , LO, 29.0N, 85.4W, 25, 1011,
20190710, 1200, , LO, 28.6N, 86.2W, 30, 1011,
20190710, 1800, , LO, 28.3N, 86.9W, 30, 1010,
20190711, 0000, , LO, 27.9N, 87.6W, 35, 1009,
20190711, 0600, , LO, 27.7N, 88.0W, 40, 1007,
20190711, 1200, , TS, 27.7N, 88.5W, 40, 1005,
20190711, 1800, , TS, 27.8N, 88.9W, 40, 1004,
20190712, 0000, , TS, 27.9N, 89.2W, 45, 1002,
20190712, 0600, , TS, 28.0N, 89.7W, 45, 1000,
20190712, 1200, , TS, 28.1N, 90.2W, 50, 998,
20190712, 1800, , TS, 28.4N, 90.5W, 55, 994,
20190713, 0000, , TS, 28.7N, 91.0W, 60, 993,
20190713, 0600, , HU, 28.9N, 91.4W, 65, 992,
20190713, 1200, , HU, 29.3N, 91.8W, 65, 992,
20190713, 1530, L, HU, 29.6N, 92.0W, 65, 994,
20190713, 1745, L, TS, 29.7N, 92.2W, 60, 995,
20190713, 1800, , TS, 29.8N, 92.2W, 60, 996,
20190714, 0000, , TS, 30.7N, 92.7W, 50, 999,

The main question mark is on landfall: my analysis is that there were TWO landfalls. The first one (at 65 kt) on Marsh Island, and the second, NHC-declared mainland landfall (at 60 kt) in Intracoastal City. Other than that, it largely agrees with the operational.

[CrazyC83]

So anyone with any thoughts on how long this wind/rain will last in Lafayette area? Headed to Houston tomorrow night at 930 by bus -- thanks.

Probably through tomorrow.

[Condor]

[Stormcenter]

So what is going on in the Gulf? Is that blow up the tail end remains of Barry or another development?

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=c ... =undefined