ATL: BARRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Interesting nuggetts by Levi Cowan.

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1148234438821777408




 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1148239919481012224

[Senobia]

When is this system forecast to be over water? And is it forecast to ever be completely over water, being that the area of development is so close to land in the graphics?

[facemane]

When is this system forecast to be over water? And is it forecast to ever be completely over water, being that the area of development is so close to land in the graphics?

Tuesday morning

[Senobia]

When is this system forecast to be over water? And is it forecast to ever be completely over water, being that the area of development is so close to land in the graphics?

Tuesday morning

Oh, wow. I didn't realize it would happen that soon. Thanks.

[cycloneye]

FYI: It looks like the squadron will be very busy in the next few days.The 92L Recon Thread is up.

[Aric Dunn]

Interesting nuggetts by Levi Cowan.

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1148234438821777408

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1148239919481012224

Exactly ... as mentioned previously... have to watch where the convection develops.

[tropicwatch]

Might take a little while for convection to build. Quite a bit of dry air around.

[cycloneye]

From Crown Weather Services,here is Rob's discussion.

 https://twitter.com/crownweather/status/1148242360222003200

[Hurricaneman]

There seems to be feeder bands moving through parts of the Florida peninsula but not much around the low, may quickly develop once over the GOM depending how or if a core develops

[SoupBone]

Might take a little while for convection to build. Quite a bit of dry air around.
http://tropicwatch.info/watervapor92l070820191014.jpg

Might be the only thing that could help keep it in check, at least temporarily.

[Aric Dunn]

Very interesting to see the 12z gfs coverting the vorticity/low over central GA very quickly sw in 12 hours. A lobe to the sw develops and by tomorrow morning the vorticty is nearly offshore..

[vbhoutex]

This is Jeff Lindner's take on our 92L

Tropical cyclone likely to develop in the Gulf of Mexico this week.

Threat has increased westward overnight along the LA and TX coasts.

Discussion:

Mid level (850mb) disturbance over GA is continuing to move SSE/S this morning and will be moving into N FL and eventually the extreme NE Gulf of Mexico over the next 24 hours. Global models are now in good agreement that this feature will work its wat from the 850mb level to the surface resulting in the formation of a tropical depression over the NE Gulf of Mexico. Upper air conditions appear favorable for a tropical system to form and then intensify with a large 200mb high pressure ridge over much of the US Gulf coast and northern Gulf.

Track:

While there was much spread and disagreement yesterday, starting yesterday afternoon and continuing overnight, that spread has decreased into a solution where any Gulf system would tend to track more westward. The GFS has abandoned the idea of the system remaining close to the FL coast and is now in fair agreement with the ECMWF of a slow westward track across the Gulf of Mexico. Most models now indicate a threat westward along the US Gulf coast toward TX and LA. As mentioned yesterday, both the westward and eastward track solution were viable, and it appears we are starting to see a trend toward the westward solution being the more favored. This more westward solution is likely due to a more WSW movement of the system in the Gulf of Mexico and the formation and building of a mid level high pressure ridge over the southern US mid to late week which would prevent any trough near the Great Lakes from pulling the system northward.

Intensity:

While there is better agreement on the track this morning there remains a lot of spread on the intensity with the ECWMF model continuing to be the strongest. Looking at the upper air and surface features for a moment suggest that any storm in the Gulf will likely intensify. Upper level winds are forecast to be light with the surface feature located under a 200mb anticyclone which will help vent the surface low and provide good upper level outflow. Additionally, the system would appear to move over the warm Gulf waters with temperatures in the 84-86 degree range and per latest oceanic heat content there is plenty of heat content for development. Models also show the system slowing its westward movement allowing a longer time over those warm Gulf waters. A tropical storm is likely and a hurricane is not out of the question.

Impacts:

For now will not make any changes to the ongoing forecast for late this week/weekend. If forecast models continue to show the westward motion and potential threat to the NW Gulf…significant forecast changes will be required over the next 24-48 hours.

Residents along the US Gulf coast should closely monitor the progress of this system. Check hurricane preparation kits and plans and be ready to enact those plans this week. Monitor weather forecast closely.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_5d0.png

[gatorcane]

Very interesting to see the 12z gfs coverting the vorticity/low over central GA very quickly sw in 12 hours. A lobe to the sw develops and by tomorrow morning the vorticty is nearly offshore..

The GFS continues to insist the low won’t have enough time to really organize before moving inland. Reminds me a lot of the one system from 2017 I believe that hugged the Gulf coast and was a tremendous rain maker. Had that system been 100 miles further south, would have made a huge difference.

[Taffy]

Following. Hoping SW Florida gets in on some of the rain

[SoupBone]

Very interesting to see the 12z gfs coverting the vorticity/low over central GA very quickly sw in 12 hours. A lobe to the sw develops and by tomorrow morning the vorticty is nearly offshore..

The GFS continues to insist the low won’t have enough time to really organize before moving inland.

And this is where I begin my cheerleading campaign for the GFS.

I really hope this doesn't have an Allison type setup, though both the Euro and GFS tend to move it quicker in and out of here.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Not necessarily related to 92L, but I wouldn't be surprised if the area of thunderstorms off the coast of North Carolina tries something too.

[Aric Dunn]

Very interesting to see the 12z gfs coverting the vorticity/low over central GA very quickly sw in 12 hours. A lobe to the sw develops and by tomorrow morning the vorticty is nearly offshore..

The GFS continues to insist the low won’t have enough time to really organize before moving inland.

I am not even looking at the gfs for intensity right now. Just the short term progress of the vorticity the next 24 hours. And it shows it getting tugged sw in the next 12 hours.. likely do to convection building over the northern gulf/panhandle. That is key.

[tropicwatch]

Parts of the Panhandle preparing for a deluge of rain from this system.
https://l.facebook.com/l.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.mypanhandle.com%2Fnews%2Flocal-news%2Flynn-haven-offering-sandbags-to-residents%2F%3Futm_medium%3Dsocial%26utm_source%3Dfacebook_WMBB-TV%26fbclid%3DIwAR0zWxGBRTapEmsurRUSvpusELV133RAJmFsuMFcj13nYShE1FoG-EuwsJM&h=AT1WpiM0bYzyaGP2oFO1zblVtUQs3TA8Jr3tXgQeWlKMdyT2-5B7U6hsyKVnf0XZxthKcKkBw2ad2MaReQ9DwNBSGHzuZ-4bLms4QDa8egUSQDbzXyUfhYADl0PqFCdOB_Ncpx9qsM2hPRutsHOQEM0XmHiCEvRLayB78mQm-ykixQNWieJakwCuic-nUu__pkrljYUVqdpG1hL5FBIr0mGuAMVWjC7lxf-bqNYFnx9towjHfAwgW64Bz-UoCM7yy-MYh6O28267Yc0rNPf1iedbT4r34j-US5sRMybXB2Ckr5czxgV1UmR9QePRZecHBzc7JRB7QAcHYBUMtNSihEWJ3dPRGzHTI58qqWeDmRUH6xBI6-Q0hC531eObI6lLbZ8lmrH1TFjGDLLtnnuc-PCazISqwF0PBT08GTMd6E-sWHNvTQ3BSqryo297qj_vLBj8RTkLPHcKW-wZ8hJr-EOXENKXXzt_i38PASGR6JpOxRv5JvR404U0NlCJXBNhTPHROQ5Hn1TBwXT9_0kb23vjjiM5eCXHxWuaptDdeLGDo9p3vJA9a26Qbrdw2AdT0b-WgddFX5mHPE9E1VTPeijju6Cr9XA1iZ_Z9VMjzs9REjOQs2BOuKstH4Mwt9vvqLY-eztM4r_a4FIyIrs

[gatorcane]

Very interesting to see the 12z gfs coverting the vorticity/low over central GA very quickly sw in 12 hours. A lobe to the sw develops and by tomorrow morning the vorticty is nearly offshore..

The GFS continues to insist the low won’t have enough time to really organize before moving inland.

I am not even looking at the gfs for intensity right now. Just the short term progress of the vorticity the next 24 hours. And it shows it getting tugged sw in the next 12 hours.. likely do to convection building over the northern gulf/panhandle. That is key.

I noticed the UKMET is coming in stronger. That is interesting. Perhaps the GFS is too weak here.

[Aric Dunn]

12z icon looks extremely plausible. Check out how the convection that develops over northern gulf later today and tonight rapidly pull/develops the low/vorticity offshore by tomorrow midday. Watching the convective pattern today is very key https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 812&fh=-42