ATL: BARRY - Models

[Steve]

00Z NAM with another east shift and a little stronger:

https://i.postimg.cc/Kc9Y1Sxn/nam-ref-us-5.png

Nam looks to smoke everyone roughly west of lake Pontchartrain in the next 24 hours. It's the 27 hour run, but if it's right, there's some hurting tomorrow (plus we're already 2.5 hours in). Looks like Terrebonne, almost all of Lafourche and westbank of St. Charles over to about St. Rose get the brunt initially. Most everyone has boats down there, so be ready.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1300&fh=30

And oh yeah, in the next 3 hours after that while I was typing, Baton Rouge metro comes under the gun in that span too. Link is acting screwy but be ready up that way too if the NAM is right.

[jasons2k]

It's nighttime - rain bands are starting to setup now, especially SW of New Orleans Metro and arcing SE down toward the coast. I expect our first set of flood warnings pretty soon.

[Dylan]

 https://twitter.com/dylanfedericowx/status/1149880878467833856

[Steve]

GFS is in line with the NAM with the rain shield. Galliano to Baton Rouge including everybody just west of the lake. Guess is about 1.2-1.4 million people deal with that band. Weird being in the northeast side of the circulation with little precip. I’m glad because all these bands would typically bring squalls instead of wind and clouds. But that dry air the last few days has it where the rain is going to be wrung out. GFS is north-south oriented.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1300&fh=42

[Steve]

A new band, east of the other one, is now setting up towards the delta. We need to keep a watch on this one. It could rotate into New Orleans metro as the night progresses.

Idk. Looks like it’s backing off in favor of the eventual wrap stuff a bit to the west. I could be wrong.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

[TexWx]

Haha, This thing is a mess.

[shah83]

The way the gulf infrared and wv looks like right now, it's easy for me to see how the UK decided it was going to TX.

Also, the convection covers an enormous area of the gulf.

[StormLogic]

I'm thinking 18-25 trillion gallons of water with the storm.

time is up for south central LA, approximately 20-30" over next few days...

NAM is also showing some odd 24" of rainfall in southern parts of chambers, jefferson, and orange county texas approximately from late sunday night/early monday morning to later that evening & by 3 am 3-6", 6 am 7-12" and so on.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

River waters decreasing since yesterday, this storm is ragged, even with the corps pumps running 24:7 in the city. You would of thought it would of gone up...its just not dumping enough rainfall

Thinking things could of been worse

[davidiowx]

Soo... how about that UKMET? Saw so many on here completely dismissing it.

[NDG]

Soo... how about that UKMET? Saw so many on here completely dismissing it.

Yep, the UKMET did great compared to the rest of the models, what type of drugs were .... on

[Blinhart]

Soo... how about that UKMET? Saw so many on here completely dismissing it.

Yep, the UKMET did great compared to the rest of the models, what type of drugs were .... on

[url]http://i.imgur.com/NneSb9d.gif [/url]

yeah the whole time I was expecting from Morgan City to Cameron, and it ended up going up in Vermillion Bay.

[davidiowx]

Soo... how about that UKMET? Saw so many on here completely dismissing it.

Yep, the UKMET did great compared to the rest of the models, what type of drugs were .... on

[url]http://i.imgur.com/NneSb9d.gif [/url]

Not exactly sure what you’re trying to say? But I don’t consider models flip flopping until they eventually get it right doing great. The UKMET had the center far west for days while the others didn’t know what to do. It did have it WAY to far west, but it clearly saw something the others didn’t.

I’ve always been big on the Euro, it has done pretty good in recent years, but so has the UKMET. The GFS on the other hand, keeps going down in my book.

[NDG]

Soo... how about that UKMET? Saw so many on here completely dismissing it.

Yep, the UKMET did great compared to the rest of the models, what type of drugs were .... on

[url]http://i.imgur.com/NneSb9d.gif [/url]

Not exactly sure what you’re trying to say? But I don’t consider models flip flopping until they eventually get it right doing great. The UKMET had the center far west for days while the others didn’t know what to do. It did have it WAY to far west, but it clearly saw something the others didn’t.

I’ve always been big on the Euro, it has done pretty good in recent years, but so has the UKMET. The GFS on the other hand, keeps going down in my book.

Clearly the Euro and ICON did the best, the GFS was too far right but at least was much closer to the actual track within 72 hrs than the UKMET. When a model is so far off within 72 hrs, I call that really bad. The UKMET was overdoing ridging to the north way too much while the GFS was under doing it, the Euro and ICON had the right idea never swinging their tracks more than 30-40 miles radius.
What the GFS had right was on not so good UL conditions on top of Barry when it was to reach the central GOM.

[Blinhart]

Do the long range show the remnants go into the Atlantic and keep on going towards the UK???

[USTropics]

Do the long range show the remnants go into the Atlantic and keep on going towards the UK???

It's a possibility. What's certain is Barry will be gradually absorbed into the northern jet stream energy by mid-week as it turns northeastward towards the lower Ohio Valley, most likely merging with the shortwave trough currently pushing into the Pacific Northwest. After this, models significantly differ. According to the GFS model, this energy will make its way across the NATL towards EU (specifically Ireland/UK) by Monday the 22nd. You can see this evolution in the model loop below:



This seems to be an outlier at the time though; the ECMWF, CMC, and GFS-legacy are slower in this evolution and have interaction between multiple shortwave troughs NE of Nova Scotia that pinwheels the energy in a more poleward component towards Greenland.