ATL: BARRY - Models

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stormlover2013
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#981 Postby stormlover2013 » Thu Jul 11, 2019 10:56 pm

Ukmet is finally east
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#982 Postby Steve » Thu Jul 11, 2019 10:57 pm

Verdict on GFS is it's worse from here up to about Columbia, MS than NHC which is west of GFS. Everything else should be rolling soon, so we'll see if there are any surprises.
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#983 Postby SoupBone » Thu Jul 11, 2019 10:59 pm

stormlover2013 wrote:Ukmet is finally east



Link?
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#984 Postby LarryWx » Thu Jul 11, 2019 11:00 pm

stormlover2013 wrote:Ukmet is finally east



Surprise..........NOT! It is Jose, the sequel, starring the left biased UKMET.
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#985 Postby stormlover2013 » Thu Jul 11, 2019 11:01 pm

sorry wrong one my bad guys
Last edited by stormlover2013 on Thu Jul 11, 2019 11:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#986 Postby SoupBone » Thu Jul 11, 2019 11:02 pm

stormlover2013 wrote:https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/



Thanks. That's a pretty major move east by it.
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#987 Postby LarryWx » Thu Jul 11, 2019 11:04 pm

stormlover2013 wrote:https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/


Where is the 0Z 7/12 UKMET run at this link? I think I only see the 12Z 7/11 run.
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#988 Postby LarryWx » Thu Jul 11, 2019 11:08 pm

TROPICAL STORM BARRY ANALYSED POSITION : 27.9N 88.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 12.07.2019 0 27.9N 88.9W 1002 35
1200UTC 12.07.2019 12 27.8N 90.5W 999 41
0000UTC 13.07.2019 24 28.6N 91.4W 994 42
1200UTC 13.07.2019 36 29.1N 92.5W 987 67
0000UTC 14.07.2019 48 30.1N 93.7W 987 52
1200UTC 14.07.2019 60 31.4N 94.5W 994 40
0000UTC 15.07.2019 72 33.0N 95.2W 993 27
1200UTC 15.07.2019 84 33.9N 96.0W 1000 24
0000UTC 16.07.2019 96 CEASED TRACKING
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#989 Postby stormlover2013 » Thu Jul 11, 2019 11:08 pm

stormlover2013 wrote:https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/



Sorry that’s the wrong model lol my bad
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#990 Postby Wx_Warrior » Thu Jul 11, 2019 11:09 pm

Unreal. Fake news.
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#991 Postby SoupBone » Thu Jul 11, 2019 11:10 pm

stormlover2013 wrote:
stormlover2013 wrote:https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/



Sorry that’s the wrong model lol my bad


What model was that?
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#992 Postby Craters » Thu Jul 11, 2019 11:15 pm

SoupBone wrote:
stormlover2013 wrote:
stormlover2013 wrote:https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/



Sorry that’s the wrong model lol my bad


What model was that?


Looks like it was the RUC (Rapid Update Cycle): https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/m ... -cycle-ruc
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#993 Postby Steve » Thu Jul 11, 2019 11:18 pm

Canadian is jumpy but it looks like it’s between GFS and NHC. We’ll see what kind of rain it lays in a bit. Looks to be more Lafourche on up to Galliano Cut Off Larose and up from there toward Hammond look to get it worst on CMC. It’s stoll running.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1200&fh=54
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#994 Postby Steve » Thu Jul 11, 2019 11:21 pm

ICON is close to NHC

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 71200&fh=6
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#995 Postby Steve » Thu Jul 11, 2019 11:31 pm

OG GFS is close to New GFS.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 200&fh=180
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#996 Postby Steve » Thu Jul 11, 2019 11:34 pm

HMON is out to 15. Shows mostly barren north and west side with everything concentrated to the SE. It's fairly close to land already, so it's probably going to have to slow down if it wants to do anything. Shows 989mb and is up to about 28.85N by 21 hours.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1200&fh=21

Filling in at 27. See if it looks anything like this tomorrow night at 10. Supercharged bands, and still south of 29N, so a stall at least for those 6 hours.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1200&fh=27

EDIT - HMON is fast and landfalls tomorrow night around 1am. It doesn't show it ever really getting its act together which would be legit because of the lack of time. Better case scenario than some of the other models.
Last edited by Steve on Thu Jul 11, 2019 11:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#997 Postby USTropics » Thu Jul 11, 2019 11:41 pm

00z UKMET text output:

Code: Select all

        TROPICAL STORM BARRY      ANALYSED POSITION : 27.9N  88.9W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022019

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 12.07.2019  27.9N  88.9W     WEAK
 12UTC 12.07.2019  27.8N  90.5W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 13.07.2019  28.6N  91.4W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 13.07.2019  29.1N  92.5W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 14.07.2019  30.1N  93.7W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 14.07.2019  31.4N  94.5W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 15.07.2019  33.0N  95.2W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 15.07.2019  33.9N  96.0W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 16.07.2019        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#998 Postby stormlover2013 » Thu Jul 11, 2019 11:44 pm

http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weathe ... est&hh=060
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#999 Postby Steve » Thu Jul 11, 2019 11:54 pm

HWRF also landfalls tomorrow night around midnight. Structure looks held in check and dry north & west, but location is similar to GFS so east of the CMC and NHC. Point is either the Hurricane models are fast, or they don't stall. We'll see if that holds true tomorrow or if maybe they grabbed onto that last center that got ejected or something.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1200&fh=30

Euro in an hour and bed.
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#1000 Postby USTropics » Fri Jul 12, 2019 12:00 am

Spaghetti plots for 00z UKMET:

Image
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