ATL: BARRY - Models

[Siker]

UKMET still a bit west of most but much more in line with other guidance finally:

[Steve]

CMC shows the band of heaviest precipitation slightly east of the GFS but worse for the City of New Orleans. It landfalls a bit east of the NHC.

[Frank P]

12z EURO has the pressure at 993 in 24 hours... Barry is already at 993mb... does that mean it isn't expected to strengthen anymore for the next 24 hours or EURO is off... initialized at 996 mb

[Steve]

12z EURO has the pressure at 993 in 24 hours... Barry is already at 993mb... does that mean it isn't expected to strengthen anymore for the next 24 hours or EURO is off... initialized at 996 mb

I think it’s off and that the resolution is too broad. I’m thinking mid 980s

[PTrackerLA]

12z Euro shifts heaviest rains west with 17" over Lafayette.

[Sambucol]

I read elsewhere the center is reforming. Does anyone know if that’s correct?

[Steve]

I read elsewhere the center is reforming. Does anyone know if that’s correct?

Reorganizing is probably a better term for what it’s doing.

[Frank P]

both 18Z 3K and 12K Nam models are slightly weaker and a tad to the east of the 12Z runs..

[Kingarabian]

12z EURO has the pressure at 993 in 24 hours... Barry is already at 993mb... does that mean it isn't expected to strengthen anymore for the next 24 hours or EURO is off... initialized at 996 mb

I think it’s off and that the resolution is too broad. I’m thinking mid 980s

I think there's a good chance that the original landfall intensity forecasts (Between 980-985) from the Euro and GFS will verify.

[Steve]

12z EURO has the pressure at 993 in 24 hours... Barry is already at 993mb... does that mean it isn't expected to strengthen anymore for the next 24 hours or EURO is off... initialized at 996 mb

I think it’s off and that the resolution is too broad. I’m thinking mid 980s

I think there's a good chance that the original landfall intensity forecasts (Between 980-985) from the Euro and GFS will verify.

Yeah I mean that’s legit. 975 probably isn’t even completely out of the question, but it’s going to need more time probably than it had. Joe B thinks in this case there should be about 12 hours of limited degradation after landfall.

[StormPyrate]

Seeing what satellite is showing now, those odd loops on the GFS models a couple days ago make sense

[TheProfessor]

The Rain shield to east of the storm on the HWRF is pretty big. There would definitely be widespread problems if that were to occur.

[stormlover2013]

Time to followed the hrr, did really well for harvey!!!

[ColdFusion]

MS River @ Nola decreasing over the last 4 hours:

07/12 22:00 16.89ft
07/12 21:00 16.90ft
07/12 20:00 16.92ft
07/12 19:00 16.93ft

[NDG]

Time to followed the hrr, did really well for harvey!!!

So far is not doing too well.

[gatorcane]

GFS legacy, 36 hours:

[KimmieLa]

GFS legacy, 36 hours:

https://i.postimg.cc/Wzwdhhpj/gfs-legacy-ir-watl-7.png

This scared the beejeburs out of me. Can I run away?

[boca]

Is the GFS Legacy the old GFS model?

[Blinhart]

Is the GFS Legacy the old GFS model?

yes

[gatorcane]

00Z NAM with another east shift and a little stronger: