ATL: BARRY - Models

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MississippiWx
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#1001 Postby MississippiWx » Fri Jul 12, 2019 12:01 am

USTropics wrote:Spaghetti plots for 00z UKMET:

https://i.imgur.com/wfkTwz2.jpg


UKMET is finally joining the party. Not too far from the rest now.
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#1002 Postby LarryWx » Fri Jul 12, 2019 12:02 am

The GEFS mean continues to be ~100 miles W of the GFS in W LA.
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#1003 Postby shah83 » Fri Jul 12, 2019 12:29 am

Guys, pay attention to the hwrf, overall track to date is really serious inland, does a circle in N LA border with AR, and still pulling up huge water at hour 81. Plus, only a little left means deeper storm in the landfall time frame.
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#1004 Postby LarryWx » Fri Jul 12, 2019 12:58 am

The Euro still has the center cross central LA early Sat.
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#1005 Postby MississippiWx » Fri Jul 12, 2019 1:11 am

0z Euro is about 50 miles east of its previous run. Landfall is at Morgan City, LA and then nearly due north instead of northwest. It is also a bit stronger, bringing Barry to right at hurricane strength. There has been a slight uptick in modeled intensity tonight.
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#1006 Postby NDG » Fri Jul 12, 2019 2:15 am

Latest 0z Euro run forecast. Takes it inland near or just west of Morgan City then tracks it NNW close to New Iberia up the Atchafalaya Basin between B.R. and Lafayette, taking a whole 12 hours to get to I-10

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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#1007 Postby NDG » Fri Jul 12, 2019 2:17 am

MississippiWx wrote:
USTropics wrote:Spaghetti plots for 00z UKMET:

https://i.imgur.com/wfkTwz2.jpg


UKMET is finally joining the party. Not too far from the rest now.


Better late than never :lol:
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#1008 Postby NDG » Fri Jul 12, 2019 2:35 am

I give it a fairly low chance of Barry making it to hurricane strength but why would 5 mph make a big difference when the biggest threat will be flooding.
Below are the latest rainfall accumulation forecasts by the models: Euro, ICON, GFS & Canadian. The Euro has been persistent that the heaviest rain will be over the B.R. area while the GFS has been persistent to be near Nola. The latest ICON is in between the two. The Canadian has it near Houma.

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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#1009 Postby Tailspin » Fri Jul 12, 2019 3:04 am

Gust's upto 140 km's if ec verifys.
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https://imgur.com/9ji1io6
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#1010 Postby Steve » Fri Jul 12, 2019 8:55 am

NAMs are running now. This is a point in time they should have a good radar depiction of what's going to happen. 12km is only out to 13 hours, and 3km only to 3. But once they show through 30-36 hours, I'll post what they say.
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#1011 Postby tolakram » Fri Jul 12, 2019 8:57 am

The HRRR might be starting to have a decent handle on it, though beware this thing is usually wrong past 3 hours.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrrr&region=seus&pkg=ref_frzn&runtime=2019071212&fh=3
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#1012 Postby StormLogic » Fri Jul 12, 2019 9:03 am

12K NAM a little more west
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#1013 Postby davidiowx » Fri Jul 12, 2019 9:06 am

StormLogic wrote:12K NAM a little more west


And faster as well. Has landfall in 24 hours further west than 6z
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#1014 Postby Steve » Fri Jul 12, 2019 9:13 am

davidiowx wrote:
StormLogic wrote:12K NAM a little more west


And faster as well. Has landfall in 24 hours further west than 6z


NAM 3k top-spins along the coast heading west. 12km goes pretty far into West LA but it's been doing that on several of the recent runs.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1212&fh=18
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#1015 Postby PTrackerLA » Fri Jul 12, 2019 10:40 am

12z 3km NAM Totals

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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#1016 Postby Steve » Fri Jul 12, 2019 10:48 am

PTrackerLA wrote:12z 3km NAM Totals

https://i.imgur.com/Gjzp5PF.png


Yeah, NAM likes that center of the state band of preip. GFS 12z is still right over the city but maybe the band has shifted about 5-10 miles west and is more to the west side of town

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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#1017 Postby Steve » Fri Jul 12, 2019 10:51 am

Here's the 12Z ICON and note the orientation of the band is more NNE than straight North.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1212&fh=18
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#1018 Postby Steve » Fri Jul 12, 2019 10:54 am

Here's the 12z RGEM

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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#1019 Postby Frank P » Fri Jul 12, 2019 10:55 am

12Z GFS slight shift SW lower pressure 988 mb
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#1020 Postby Frank P » Fri Jul 12, 2019 10:58 am

12Z GFS Legacy slight shifts NE,on coast with 992mb but pressure continues to fall to 989 up to Baton Rouge area
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