ATL: BARRY - Models

[northjaxpro]

Barry pretty typical early season storm. Lopsided and sheared with dry air intrusion. I'm having my doubts it ever reaches hurricane status and unless it explodes convection overnight I believe the rainfall totals might be overdone. But good for us if it stays weak and disorganized. The new GFS has done well with the storm so far.

The GFS overall has handled Barry very well indeed.

[gatorcane]

Look at the rainfall totals as shown by the GFS. That is about 2ft of rain

[northjaxpro]

The 2 feet of rain is directly.over the Big Easy by the GFS.

Man, if that comes to fruition, that would be devastasting for them and the region. Praying for all in the region!

[NDG]

0z Early models.

[Nederlander]

Look at the rainfall totals as shown by the GFS. That is about 2ft of rain

https://i.postimg.cc/mkwjNv9C/gfs-apcpn-seus-23.png

Yeah not good with the MS river already in major flood stage

[TheProfessor]

0z Early models.

https://i.imgur.com/rG2mweW.gif

I feel like this North of west movement that the models have trended back towards will not be good for whoever gets stuck under the feeder band. When the models were showing a more eastward hook the feeder band wasn't sitting over one spot as much.

[Steve]

^^

Gatorcane,

Canadian has it too. It’s going to depend heavily on where the landfall is as to who pays with that east of center rain attack. The way it draws on the map it’s literally about a day of being under it due to it coming in generally on a northerly heading.

[EasyTiger]

I am completely skeptical of any of the models. Just going off of obs, but it seems the center has taken a move south, the trough is moderating and high pressure is starting to build in. Perhaps the eyes deceive. I dunno!

[Steve]

I am completely skeptical of any of the models. Just going off of obs, but it seems the center has taken a move south, the trough is moderating and high pressure is starting to build in. Perhaps the eyes deceive. I dunno!

Nam was first (or one of the first) to telegraph a stall, kick south and maybe some bouncing tonight into tomorrow. Plausible.

[TheProfessor]

The 3Km NAM is really wanting to keep this storm moving slow as it approaches the coast. Might see it drop 60 inches of rain somewhere again.

[Steve]

The 3Km NAM is really wanting to keep this storm moving slow as it approaches the coast. Might see it drop 60 inches of rain somewhere again.

Looks to key on Terrebonne/St. Mary
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1200&fh=45

[Wx_Warrior]

10pm NHC

[Steve]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1200&fh=36

NAM 3km landfall is early morning Saturday. Rainfall is east of center for roughly 35 or 40 (?) miles. All models from the EC, GFS, NAM, Canadian, HWRF, etc. have shown that the eastern side for the 24 or so hours after landfall is going to be where the psycho rainfall is and where people are going to get rocked. As the models hone in, I'm thinking the worst case for us in the city is for a landfall anywhere between Cocodrie and Grand Isle or so. Anything east of there, it's going to be Slidell or the MS Gulf Coast that gets it. Anything west, and then it could be Bayou, RIver Parishes, Basin, Lafayette, etc. People need to know that if the models have that aspect correct, and I think they do based on how they've handled and shown the current state yesterday and Tuesday, you could be under literally a day of deluge. Water will come up quickly no matter if it's a city with drainage or if you're near rivers or bayous.

[Steve]

NHC track may be just far enough west to spare New Orleans the worst of the worst rain. It would be close for the city for the rainfall, but it's probably more likely when you get west and upriver to say like Desterhan or Laplace or so would be closer to the heaviest threat. Then anything west of there up to the center of circulation obviously gets the beating.

[SoupBone]

NHC track may be just far enough west to spare New Orleans the worst of the worst rain. It would be close for the city for the rainfall, but it's probably more likely when you get west and upriver to say like Desterhan or Laplace or so would be closer to the heaviest threat. Then anything west of there up to the center of circulation obviously gets the beating.

Better for New Orleans means worse for Baton Rouge and Houma, unfortunately.

[AutoPenalti]

Legacy is running.

Curious to see how it handles compared to the new GFS.

[Steve]

Legacy is running.

Curious to see how it handles compared to the new GFS.

GFS has the rain shield aimed north-south toward New Orleans. Only out to 36 so no telling how fast it will pull out yet. But this looks like a bad run.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1200&fh=30

[Steve]

Rainfall up to a foot by 48h

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1200&fh=48

[tarheelprogrammer]

When does the UKMET run, so it can finally cave?

[MississippiWx]

When does the UKMET run, so it can finally cave?

My guess is it will show Barry going south of Houston this run just for spite.