WPAC: DANAS - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 190900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 06W (DANAS) WARNING NR
13//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 06W (DANAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 374 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KUNSAN AB, KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A BROAD, WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
(LLC) WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING CONFINED, PRIMARILY, TO THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. A 190425Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES
IMPROVED BANDING WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE NORTH QUADRANT OF THE LLC SUGGESTING A
SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION TREND. ADDITIONALLY, A LINE OF EXTENSIVE DEEP
CONVECTION IS EVIDENT ALONG THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN FLANK OF
THE SYSTEM, AND, BASED ON RECENT KMA RADAR IMAGERY, IS EXPANDING
ACROSS CHEJU ISLAND INTO THE SOUTHERN KOREAN PENINSULA. BASED ON THE
IMPROVED STRUCTURE AND A SATCON ESTIMATE OF 53 KNOTS, THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS. OVERALL, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE
IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE MSI. THE WIND FIELD REMAINS
ASYMMETRIC AND EXPANSIVE WITH CONVERGENT GALE-FORCE WINDS FUELING
THE PERSISTENT HEAVY CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE
WIND RADII FORECAST IS BASED ON THE MULTI-MODEL WIND RADII CONSENSUS
(RVCN) AND REFLECTS THE EXTENSIVE SOUTHERLY GALE-FORCE WINDS. TS 06W
IS TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NORTH-SOUTH
ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 06W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO
NORTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STR.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD OF
80NM AT TAU 36, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT
LANDFALL LOCATION DUE TO THE BROAD NATURE OF THE CENTER. AS TS 06W
APPROACHES THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF SOUTH KOREA NEAR TAU 24, IT IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN DUE TO FRICTIONAL EFFECTS WITH SIGNIFICANT
WEAKENING FORECAST AFTER TAU 24 AS IT TRACKS ACROSS MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. THE SYSTEM SHOULD DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY TAU 48.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

Judging from past storms in the Atlantic, I won't be surprise if this is stronger than the estimates.





CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (mmddhhmm): 07190437
SATCON: MSLP = 975 hPa MSW = 53 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 51.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 58 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 200 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is 0 knots Source: NA

Member Estimates

ADT: 980 hPa 39 knots Scene: CDO Date: JUL190610
CIMSS AMSU: 961 hPa 69 knots Bias Corr: 0 (MW) Date: 07182130
ATMS: 967.9 hPa 64.6 knots Date: 07190437
SSMIS: 967.9 hPa 64.6 knots Date: 07190437
CIRA ATMS: 993 hPa 40 knots Date: 07161713

[doomhaMwx]

Danas is now making landfall over South Korea.

TS 1905 (Danas)
Issued at 09:45 UTC, 20 July 2019

<Analysis at 09 UTC, 20 July>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N35°20' (35.3°)
E125°55' (125.9°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area E 650 km (350 NM)
W 280 km (150 NM)

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 200900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (DANAS)
WARNING NR 17//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 06W (DANAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 84 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KUNSAN AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 05
KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC)
WITH THE BULK OF THE RAIN BANDS AND ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION IN THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION
BASED ON THE ANIMATED MSI AND OBSERVED WIND AND PRESSURE DATA FROM
BUOY 22102 AND HEUKSANDO. THE 30 KT INITIAL INTENSITY IS CONSISTENT
WITH THE PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (30 KTS) AND A
SAMPLING OF OBSERVED WINDS UP TO 29 KTS AROUND THE KOREAN PENINSULA.
COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (22-23 CELSIUS) AND PROXIMITY TO LAND
ARE OFFSETTING GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. TD 06W IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 06W WILL GRADUALLY TURN MORE NORTHEASTWARD AS IT RECURVES
AND TRACKS OVER THE KOREAN PENINSULA, STEADILY WEAKEN OVER LAND, AND
DISSIPATE BY TAU 24. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG
AGREEMENT, LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[wxman57]

Danas no longer looks tropical. There's a cold front extending to the south and a warm front extending to the east.

[1900hurricane]

Ironically looks the most symmetrical it'a been while on its way out over the Korean Peninsula.

[Hayabusa]

Danas only peaked to TS but the models handled the forecast enough not to be disappointed with it unlike the previous "storms" since Wutip.

[euro6208]

ALso was probrably stronger.

[galaxy401]

ALso was probrably stronger.

What's your evidence?