WPAC: DANAS - Post-Tropical

[Nancy Smar]

98W INVEST 190711 0600 7.0N 147.0E WPAC 15 0

[Hayabusa]

98W INVEST 190711 0600 7.0N 147.0E WPAC 15 0

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 07N 150E WNW 10 KT.

Is the same low pressure area that JMA was tracking since July 8 near the dateline? or it dissipated and it regenerated to a new one? or a completely different lpa?

[Nancy Smar]

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 07N 150E WNW 10 KT.

[Nancy Smar]

98W INVEST 190711 0600 7.0N 147.0E WPAC 15 0

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 07N 150E WNW 10 KT.

Is the same low pressure area that JMA was tracking since July 8 near the dateline? or it dissipated and it regenerated to a new one? or a completely different lpa?

Maybe the invest 98w is the same lpa that JMA was tracking.

[euro6208]

Well that's interesting!. JMA has a TD in 48 hours...

[dexterlabio]

Im waiting for a LOW mention from JTWC.

[euro6208]

EURO even more pessimistic...

[euro6208]

Good agreement?

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

98W INVEST
As of 12:00 UTC Jul 13, 2019:

Location: 11.3°N 136.0°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb

[euro6208]

98W INVEST
As of 18:00 UTC Jul 13, 2019:

Location: 12.3°N 135.0°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb

[euro6208]

EURO and GFS in perfect agreement that this will impact Northern Luzon/Luzon Strait.

[Hayabusa]

00Z upgraded to minor TD

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 12N 137E WNW SLOWLY.

[dexterlabio]

Still waiting for that JTWC mention... I don't know if it's just me but I think there is some turning evident now.

[euro6208]

Seems weird. 98W is not even monitored by other model forecast sites except tropicaltidbits. Any outage?

[ManilaTC]

It appears so, the last best track has been almost 12 hours ago... something is up...

[euro6208]

It appears so, the last best track has been almost 12 hours ago... something is up...

Seems like JTWC is also affected...

[Hayabusa]

JTWC did update its ABPW at 14/06Z with no mention of 98W. Does ABPW update automatically as "no tropical disturbances" if there's no manual input? But they even have the latest warning from TD 04E at 10Z... maybe JTWC is cautious to mention 98W because of the recent invests?

Even BT of 98W is "updated"
98W INVEST 190714 0600 12.8N 134.5E WPAC 15 1010

[euro6208]

The broad monsoonal circulation north-northeast of Koror near 13N136E
is gradually pulling northwestward over the Philippine Sea this
evening. Latest ASCAT satellite imagery indicates a swath of fresh to
strong monsoonal southwest winds across Palau and western Yap State.
These convergent winds have been sustaining widespread deep
convection across much of Palau and spreading over Yap this
afternoon. Nearly 8.5 inches of rain have fallen across Palau for
the past 36 hours. As the circulation moves farther away from far
western Micronesia tonight thru Monday night, conditions near Koror
should begin to improve. However, residual heavier showers will
continue thru Monday and up to an inch of additional rainfall is
still possible across Palau. For Yap, up to an inch and a half of
rainfall is possible by Monday night. Since less than an inch of
rain has fallen upon Yap for the past 24 hours, the potential for
mudslides across western Yap State is not high. From Tuesday thru
Wednesday night, a surface ridge building northward from near the
Equator should promote drier weather across far western Micronesia.
A second circulation along the southeastern portion of the monsoon
trough currently northeast of Chuuk near 10N157E is expected to
drift west-northwestward toward the Mariana Islands over the next
few days. Once into the Philippine Sea to the west of the Mariana
Islands after midweek, this circulation may introduce a modest
monsoon flow across far western Micronesia once again possibly
introducing another period of unstable weather for both Koror and
Yap.

[Hayabusa]

98W INVEST 190714 1200 14.9N 135.4E WPAC 15 1002