EPAC: DALILA - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

Location: 9.3°N 87.6°W
Maximum Winds: 20 kt Gusts: nan kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1008 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1010 mb
Radius of Circulation: 120 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 40 NM

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Jul 15 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A westward-moving tropical wave located just west of Costa Rica and
Nicaragua is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. An
area of low pressure is likely to form in association with this
disturbance during the next couple of days several hundred miles
south of the southern coast of Mexico. Conditions appear favorable
for gradual development of this system by late this week and over
the weekend while this disturbance moves westward to
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Latto/Stewart

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP972019 07/15/19 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 25 25 26 29 35 41 45 46 49 52
V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 25 25 26 29 35 41 45 46 49 52
V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 22 22 21 19 18 17 17 16 DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 8 7 9 3 4 4 7 6 2 9 12 7 4
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 -1 -3 5 10 8 6 3 4 7 5 6 9
SHEAR DIR 178 140 124 125 252 261 264 265 223 208 238 228 271
SST (C) 29.1 28.8 28.0 28.1 28.7 28.8 29.3 29.3 29.0 28.5 28.7 28.5 28.6
POT. INT. (KT) 157 154 145 146 153 154 159 159 155 151 153 150 151
200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.0 -53.7 -53.7 -53.9 -53.5 -53.7 -53.3 -53.3 -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 -53.4
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 7 6 6 8 7 8 7 7 6 4 4
700-500 MB RH 73 73 72 69 67 65 64 67 65 65 67 72 75
MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 89 73 55 32 9 -13 -25 -15 -32 -27 -19 -9 -1
200 MB DIV 80 62 37 22 -5 -9 -20 -11 15 -3 -18 0 7
700-850 TADV 6 7 5 1 0 -4 1 0 0 0 0 1 0
LAND (KM) 121 217 354 435 461 495 558 579 716 904 1101 1282 1452
LAT (DEG N) 9.1 9.2 9.3 9.4 9.7 10.3 10.7 10.9 10.4 9.6 8.7 8.0 7.5
LONG(DEG W) 86.2 87.6 89.0 90.2 91.5 94.0 96.7 99.1 101.4 103.8 106.3 108.7 110.9
STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 13 12 13 13 13 12 12 13 13 12 11
HEAT CONTENT 29 18 7 8 12 10 15 32 20 15 30 27 36

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 545 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.0

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1.
SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 0. 5. 12. 20. 27. 32. 35. 38. 41.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 6. 8. 8. 8. 8. 9.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -7. -10. -12. -12. -14. -15. -15.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 9. 15. 21. 25. 26. 29. 32.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 9.1 86.2

** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972019 INVEST 07/15/19 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.83 999.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 19.6 to 1.6 0.76 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.38 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.12 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 61.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.84 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.56 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 10.2% 57.7% 39.5% 25.7% 5.1% 41.3% 24.8% 73.5%
Bayesian: 0.3% 6.6% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0% 1.8% 2.3% 0.1%
Consensus: 3.5% 21.4% 13.6% 8.7% 1.7% 14.4% 9.0% 24.5%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972019 INVEST 07/15/19 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Jul 15 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A tropical wave located over the far eastern part of the basin
roughly 100 miles west of Costa Rica is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast
to become conducive for gradual development later this week, and a
tropical depression could form by the weekend. The wave is
forecast to move westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph,
well south of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP972019 07/15/19 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 22 23 25 29 34 40 40 42 45 50
V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 22 23 25 29 34 40 40 42 45 50
V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 22 22 21 20 18 17 16 DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 3 6 2 2 2 3 5 3 7 14 11 5 4
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 6 12 11 9 3 6 4 6 6 10 10
SHEAR DIR 109 112 112 216 177 204 235 254 192 232 228 220 10
SST (C) 28.8 28.0 28.2 28.7 28.6 29.2 29.5 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.5
POT. INT. (KT) 154 146 148 153 152 158 161 156 155 153 152 151 150
200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -53.6 -53.5 -53.5 -53.3 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 5 4 4
700-500 MB RH 71 71 69 68 66 64 66 66 65 67 71 74 74
MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 6 5 LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 70 53 32 16 -3 -23 -28 -30 -23 -26 -11 -7 -7
200 MB DIV 58 34 16 -14 -28 -11 -4 10 0 5 11 20 24
700-850 TADV 7 1 1 -1 -2 0 3 0 0 -2 -1 -1 -3
LAND (KM) 229 361 453 490 493 567 549 623 774 973 1176 1372 1565
LAT (DEG N) 9.0 9.1 9.3 9.5 9.9 10.6 11.0 10.9 10.4 9.5 8.5 7.8 7.2
LONG(DEG W) 87.6 89.0 90.4 91.7 93.0 95.6 98.1 100.4 102.7 105.1 107.6 110.0 112.3
STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 13 13 13 12 11 12 13 13 12 11
HEAT CONTENT 19 8 9 11 10 13 27 21 21 24 26 35 28

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.7

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1.
SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 5. 12. 20. 27. 32. 35. 38. 41.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 9. 9. 9. 10.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -4. -7. -8. -10. -12. -12. -11.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 9. 14. 20. 20. 22. 25. 30.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 9.0 87.6

** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972019 INVEST 07/15/19 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.83 999.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.2 19.6 to 1.6 0.91 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.24 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.08 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 61.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.84 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.62 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 3.8% 31.5% 17.0% 8.8% 0.5% 23.3% 17.0% 67.9%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Consensus: 1.3% 10.7% 5.7% 2.9% 0.2% 7.8% 5.7% 22.7%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972019 INVEST 07/15/19 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP972019 07/16/19 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 19 19 19 18 21 26 29 31 32 38 47
V (KT) LAND 20 20 19 19 19 18 21 26 29 31 32 38 47
V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 20 19 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 4 2 4 4 4 4 3 4 11 12 7 3 6
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 6 8 9 8 9 6 8 6 7 6 8 6
SHEAR DIR 96 168 208 211 206 275 240 228 219 227 234 96 44
SST (C) 27.9 28.4 28.9 28.8 29.3 29.6 29.4 29.3 29.1 29.0 28.6 28.4 28.4
POT. INT. (KT) 145 150 155 154 159 162 159 158 157 156 152 149 149
200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 -53.3 -53.4 -53.1 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.1
200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 7 8 7 8 8 8 7 6 5 4
700-500 MB RH 70 68 69 68 68 67 67 66 62 65 69 75 77
MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 8 8 7 7 6 5 5 5 6 8
850 MB ENV VOR 49 27 9 -3 -9 -25 -22 -24 -28 -31 -28 -16 0
200 MB DIV 27 1 -18 -18 -11 6 -6 10 3 -11 19 27 56
700-850 TADV 5 2 0 -4 -1 2 5 3 0 -1 0 1 0
LAND (KM) 348 401 433 444 471 480 501 617 786 974 1197 1420 1608
LAT (DEG N) 9.5 9.8 10.1 10.5 10.9 11.5 11.8 11.6 10.9 10.0 9.1 8.3 7.7
LONG(DEG W) 89.0 90.4 91.9 93.3 94.6 97.3 99.7 101.9 104.1 106.5 109.1 111.6 113.8
STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 15 14 14 13 11 11 12 13 13 12 11
HEAT CONTENT 7 9 13 11 15 23 31 30 24 39 30 20 22

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 528 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1.
SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 20. 27. 32. 36. 39. 41.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 8. 9. 10.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -12. -14. -15. -14. -11.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -11.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 1. 6. 9. 11. 12. 18. 27.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 9.5 89.0

** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972019 INVEST 07/16/19 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.85 999.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.9 19.6 to 1.6 0.87 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.15 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.08 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.63 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 61.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.84 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.56 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 2.5% 18.5% 8.5% 3.9% 0.2% 14.0% 1.5% 19.9%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.8% 6.3% 2.8% 1.3% 0.1% 4.7% 0.5% 6.6%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972019 INVEST 07/16/19 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Kingarabian]

SHIPS bullish but LGEM barely delops it.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Jul 16 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A tropical wave located a couple of hundred miles south of
Guatemala continues to produce disorganized cloudiness and showers.
Environmental conditions are forecast to become conducive for
gradual development later this week, and a tropical depression could
form this weekend. This disturbance is forecast to move westward to
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, well south of the coast of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Brown

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP972019 07/16/19 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LAND 20 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LGEM 20 20 19 19 18 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 1 3 5 5 7 9 11 12 8 8 5 2 6
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 9 10 8 2 2 4 6 6 3 3 3 1
SHEAR DIR 223 224 257 280 246 258 238 251 222 221 184 92 71
SST (C) 29.2 29.6 30.1 29.9 29.7 29.5 29.4 29.6 29.3 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.5
POT. INT. (KT) 158 162 167 165 163 160 159 162 159 150 148 147 149
200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -53.5 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.5
200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 8 8 9 8 7 6 5 5 4
700-500 MB RH 70 71 69 69 69 69 69 68 74 78 78 76 73
MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 6 6 7 8 9
850 MB ENV VOR 6 4 -4 -10 -9 2 -14 -34 -23 -15 -10 7 28
200 MB DIV -13 12 26 11 7 19 22 8 11 16 37 72 91
700-850 TADV -4 -1 2 4 4 4 4 -1 1 0 1 0 0
LAND (KM) 364 373 439 390 389 432 545 710 850 1019 1180 1309 1414
LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.5 11.8 12.2 12.4 12.6 12.4 11.8 11.4 11.0 10.6 10.5 10.8
LONG(DEG W) 92.6 93.9 95.2 96.5 97.7 100.0 102.1 104.4 106.8 109.1 111.2 113.0 114.7
STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 11 11 11 12 12 11 9 9 8
HEAT CONTENT 16 22 31 34 33 27 38 43 46 36 17 12 13

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 5
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 523 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 4. 12. 20. 27. 32. 36. 39. 42.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. 7. 8.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -16. -18. -19. -19. -16. -13.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -3. -1. 0. 0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1.
RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -6. -5. -3. 1. 6. 10. 15. 23. 30.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.0 92.6

** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972019 INVEST 07/16/19 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 143.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.94 999.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.0 19.6 to 1.6 0.87 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.22 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.24 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.49 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 43.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.49 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 2.3% 12.9% 8.9% 3.3% 0.2% 7.5% 2.8% 28.0%
Bayesian: 0.0% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.9% 0.5%
Consensus: 0.8% 4.8% 3.0% 1.1% 0.1% 2.5% 1.2% 9.5%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972019 INVEST 07/16/19 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Kingarabian]

Why are SHIPS and LGEM bearish when they have shear low and SSTs warm?

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave located a couple of hundred miles south-southwest of
Guatemala continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to become
conducive for gradual development later this week, and a tropical
depression could form over the weekend. This disturbance is
forecast to move westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph,
well south of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[NDG]

Why are SHIPS and LGEM bearish when they have shear low and SSTs warm?

I have the same question.
What is weird is that they are usually fairly aggressive in the deep tropics.

[NDG]

After looking at the latest Euro and GFS I am surprised chances for development are so high within 5 days. Both models don't develop it until at least a week from now.
Over the next few days this TW will get caught in a deep easterly flow from the low levels to the mid levels to the upper levels, with very little if any vorticity to it.

[galaxy401]

Chances dropped a little.

A tropical wave located a few hundred miles south of the Gulf
of Tehuantepec is producing a few disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to become a
little more conducive for gradual development late this week, and a
tropical depression could form over the weekend or early next week.
This disturbance is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward
at 10 to 15 mph, well south of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[cycloneye]

Shower activity associated with a tropical wave located several
hundred miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico is very limited
at this time. Environmental conditions could become a little more
more conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression
could form early next week before the system reaches cooler waters.
This disturbance is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward
at 10 to 15 mph, away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[Kingarabian]

Well models like this one more. Let's see if it makes it or poofs.

[Tailspin]

https://imgur.com/F9Jnq2n
mid-shear is likely affecting its chances atm.

[Kingarabian]

1. An area of disturbed weather located several hundred miles southwest
of the southwestern coast of Mexico is associated with a tropical
wave. Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for gradual
development, and a tropical depression could form early next week
before the system reaches cooler waters. This disturbance is
forecast to move westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph,
away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[Kingarabian]

GFS now likes it:

I Say a high end TS/low end hurricane could be in the cards.

[cycloneye]

A large area of disturbed weather located several hundred miles
southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico is associated with
a tropical wave. Environmental conditions appear to be conducive
for gradual development during the next few days, and a tropical
depression is likely to form early next week. This disturbance is
forecast to move westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph,
away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.