EPAC: DALILA - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

1. A large area of disturbed weather located several hundred miles
southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico is associated with
a tropical wave. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for development during the next few days, and a tropical
depression is likely to form early next week. This disturbance is
forecast to move westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph,
away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Jul 20 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A large area of disturbed weather is located several hundred miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive
for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within
the next few days as it moves west-northwestward away from the coast
of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Latto/Pasch

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP972019 07/20/19 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 27 30 35 46 54 61 62 62 59 57 53
V (KT) LAND 20 23 27 30 35 46 54 61 62 62 59 57 53
V (KT) LGEM 20 21 21 22 23 26 29 32 33 33 32 30 27
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 15 11 9 13 15 20 22 23 19 14 10 7 9
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 2 2 -3 -6 -2 0 -1 -3 -2 1 6
SHEAR DIR 130 148 134 106 74 52 36 35 26 7 335 305 274
SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.1 27.7 26.5 24.2 22.7
POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 151 150 149 146 148 151 145 141 129 105 89
200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.5 -52.1 -52.6 -53.0 -52.4 -53.0 -52.5 -53.2 -53.1 -53.5 -53.3 -53.4
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 0.3
TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 2 2 0 0
700-500 MB RH 72 70 73 72 69 64 62 66 70 72 73 69 67
MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 10 11 12 15 15 17 17 18 18 17 16
850 MB ENV VOR 14 22 46 69 84 79 44 12 -6 -8 -12 -5 14
200 MB DIV 69 50 61 85 93 84 83 72 35 24 11 -6 7
700-850 TADV 0 1 0 0 -3 -5 -8 -14 -11 1 0 0 0
LAND (KM) 1266 1328 1393 1448 1504 1525 1473 1348 1183 1016 869 791 716
LAT (DEG N) 11.8 11.9 11.7 11.5 11.3 11.5 12.2 13.6 15.5 17.5 19.4 21.4 23.2
LONG(DEG W) 113.8 114.9 115.9 116.6 117.3 118.0 118.2 118.2 118.1 118.2 118.4 119.1 120.0
STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 9 7 5 3 5 9 9 10 10 10 10
HEAT CONTENT 18 18 17 19 19 20 17 15 9 7 1 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 454 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 24.0

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1.
SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 20. 26. 30. 34. 35. 34.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -3. -5. -7. -7. -6. -5.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 11. 13. 14. 13. 12. 9.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 15. 26. 34. 41. 42. 42. 39. 37. 33.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.8 113.8

** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972019 INVEST 07/20/19 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.83 999.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.6 19.6 to 1.6 0.39 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.55 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.15 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 65.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.83 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.46 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 9.5% 44.0% 19.4% 12.0% 5.2% 9.0% 11.6% 17.7%
Bayesian: 0.7% 8.5% 2.0% 0.7% 0.3% 0.5% 0.5% 0.2%
Consensus: 3.4% 17.5% 7.1% 4.3% 1.8% 3.2% 4.0% 6.0%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972019 INVEST 07/20/19 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Jul 20 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A large area of disturbed weather located several hundred miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
has changed little in organization today. However, environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form within the next few days as it
moves west-northwestward away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Latto/Pasch

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Jul 20 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Satellite imagery indicates that a broad and elongated low pressure
area has formed in association with the disturbed weather located
several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula. Environmental conditions are expected
to be conducive for additional development of this system, and a
tropical depression is likely to form within the next day or two.
This disturbance is forecast to move generally northwestward at
around 10 mph away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster Brown

[plasticup]

Models don't make it much more than a TS. And a fish regardless.

[Kingarabian]

Models don't make it much more than a TS. And a fish regardless.

Models agree that this will be a respectable TS and as usual with any EPAC TC, it has a shot at hurricane status.

[Tailspin]

Models don't make it much more than a TS. And a fish regardless.

Like to see a solid fish cane myself. A td maybe all we see here.


https://imgur.com/m4GjEu5

[Yellow Evan]

Models don't make it much more than a TS. And a fish regardless.

In this basin the latter is the norm and the former generally means there's a shot at minimal hurricane status in this basin.

[Kingarabian]

Models don't make it much more than a TS. And a fish regardless.

Like to see a solid fish cane myself. A td maybe all we see here.

[url]https://i.imgur.com/m4GjEu5.png[url]
https://imgur.com/m4GjEu5

GFS peaks it @ 50kts.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Jul 21 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
are associated with an elongated area of low pressure. The
disturbance is gradually becoming better defined, and a tropical
depression or a tropical storm is expected to form during the next
day or so. The disturbance is forecast to move generally
northwestward at around 10 mph, remaining well offshore the coast of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Latto/Pasch

[NDG]

This will be a very short lived, relatively speaking, system if models are correct of it gaining latitude over next couple of days. Any system that goes north of the 18th latitude west of the 120th longitude will meet its dissipation. Still has good 24 hrs to get better organized, looks elongated this morning.

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP972019 07/21/19 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 39 41 44 46 48 48 43 38 32 25
V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 39 41 44 46 48 48 43 38 32 25
V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 35 35 36 36 35 32 29 25 21 17
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 20 19 21 20 18 15 13 8 6 7 8 12 14
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -1 -1 -2 -1 -1 -4 -2 0 0 0 -4
SHEAR DIR 71 77 74 68 58 48 17 13 271 281 211 177 161
SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.2 27.5 27.4 26.6 25.1 24.4 24.4 23.6 22.4
POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 149 148 145 138 137 128 112 105 106 98 85
200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.8 -52.4 -52.8 -53.1 -52.7 -53.3 -52.9 -53.2 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -53.5
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1
TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 1 1 0 0 0 0
700-500 MB RH 69 66 67 66 65 67 69 68 66 62 60 49 41
MODEL VTX (KT) 11 13 14 14 13 14 14 15 15 13 12 9 7
850 MB ENV VOR 81 86 86 75 54 53 37 37 30 28 25 14 0
200 MB DIV 90 89 84 76 51 42 36 47 6 -2 -9 -8 -6
700-850 TADV -2 -3 -2 -2 -4 -7 -6 -3 1 0 1 4 1
LAND (KM) 1344 1302 1261 1224 1190 1121 1037 983 950 963 972 1022 1097
LAT (DEG N) 12.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 116.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 8 8
HEAT CONTENT 17 16 15 13 10 6 6 2 0 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 515 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.7

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 19. 21. 22. 22. 20.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 2. 0. -4. -6.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 11. 14. 16. 18. 18. 13. 8. 2. -5.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.4 116.3

** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972019 INVEST 07/21/19 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.71 4.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.4
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.6 19.6 to 1.6 0.00 0.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.59 3.2
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.11 0.5
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 3.5
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 118.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.77 0.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.63 0.3
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 18.9% 16.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 8.7%
Logistic: 0.4% 2.4% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.4% 1.1%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.1% 7.1% 5.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 3.3%
DTOPS: 2.0% 10.0% 6.0% 3.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 1.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972019 INVEST 07/21/19 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Jul 21 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms have increased a little today in
association with a broad area of low pressure located several
hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula. This system appears to lack a well-defined
center. However, conditions are favorable for a tropical depression
or a tropical storm to form during the next day or so as it moves
generally northwestward at around 10 mph, remaining well offshore
the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Latto/Pasch

[Yellow Evan]

This looks pretty underwhelming not going to lie.

[Kingarabian]

This looks pretty underwhelming not going to lie.

Certainly does. Looks very elongated.

[Kingarabian]

Needs a solid convective burst.

[Kingarabian]

Last couple frames shows convection building SW and near the center. Needs to persist.

[Yellow Evan]

Last couple frames shows convection building SW and near the center. Needs to persist.

Still elongated and troughy though.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Jul 21 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Satellite data indicate that the circulation of a low pressure area
located about 800 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula remains elongated. However, the
associated showers and thunderstorms are showing signs of
organization, and a tropical depression or a tropical storm is
expected to form during the next day or so. This system is
forecast to move generally northwestward and remain well offshore of
the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi