ATL: THREE - Remnants - Discussion

[TheStormExpert]

The center is now just northwest of Grand Bahama Island traversing the Gulf Stream.

[wxman57]

I'm not seeing any evidence of a circulation on satellite or radar loops. I think it flat-lined last evening.

[TheStormExpert]

I'm not seeing any evidence of a circulation on satellite or radar loops. I think it flat-lined last evening.

You’re likely right. Doesn’t look like much is left.

[SFLcane]

The center is now just northwest of Grand Bahama Island traversing the Gulf Stream.

https://thumbs.gfycat.com/GivingRecentKakapo-size_restricted.gif

How is that 70 percent looking?

[GCANE]

A lot of helicity and lightning with the latest tower.
Definitely keeping the surface circulation going.

[BobHarlem]

Looking at cameras over at Sebastian/Vero it's just overcast, no rain. If you weren't following the tropics you'd never know there's a TD offshore.

http://www.sebastianinletcam.com/

http://www.verobeachcam.com/

[GCANE]

Nice looking corpse

[wxman57]

I do see west and southwest wind along the coast of Florida (0-5 kts) - both south of and north of the "center" of TD Three. Typical land breeze and or SW wind ahead of the approaching cold front.

[tolakram]

Live Visible

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=2&im=24&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=mesoscale_02&p%5B0%5D=band_01&x=1080.3765869140625&y=732.3829650878906

[wxman57]

Here's a plot with surface obs. Nice thunderstorm cell. West winds all along the coast of Florida (north & south). Recon is almost there.

[artist]

Radar loop
https://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.ph ... B&loop=yes

[wxman57]

I think that recon could find a 35 kt wind (SFMR) in any heavy thunderstorm over the water, but that doesn't mean it's a tropical storm. So far, plane is finding west wind north of the center.

[northjaxpro]

Aric, this indeed has been an interesting, but very strange system. But; before shear puts the whammy on it in the next 6-12 hours or so , this last gasp pulse of convection early this morning may have did just enough for Recon to find wind and data to support an upgrade briefly to Chantal. I guess we will know very shortly.

[Aric Dunn]

We will very likely get center reformation to the north east if it has not happened already.

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like a couple liitle eddys rotating around too.

[Shell Mound]

I find it interesting and rather unfortunate some posters continuously undermine and diminish the decisions made by the NHC, system after system.

I understand not everyone may agree with their decisions for classifications, but there’s continual posts that act as if the NHC is off their rocker. It’s a Tropical Depression folks; it’s not pretty or glamourous.

Like I said - interesting and unfortunate. Hopefully it’s not a trend for the rest of the season. –Source

This. Hopefully, those in the private sector will also handle these issues responsibly. People must take official decisions seriously, every season.

Ascat shown closed LLC
convection
Clear LLC on visible

I'd say the nhc did good with the upgrade. –Source

+ 2.

Back to TD Three...

[wxman57]

To my surprise, recon is hunting for a center east of Cape Canaveral. Surface obs are not indicating any LLC, just W and WSW winds all over. It's a bit odd, as normally west winds would be associated with a circulation. However, ahead of the cold front, all winds are from the SW-W.

[GCANE]

FL 40 knt
SFMR 34 knt

[wxman57]

FL 40 knt
SFMR 34 knt

Saw that, but those winds are blowing away from the "center". They're straight-line winds associated with a NNE-moving squall, not part of any circulation.

[GCANE]

Factored SFMR 37.8 knot from SSE