ATL: THREE - Models

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cycloneye
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ATL: THREE - Models

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 21, 2019 6:22 am

Only model runs here.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#2 Postby NDG » Sun Jul 21, 2019 7:17 am

The usual aggressive HWRF doesn’t doesn’t do much with.
It shows a dry environment.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#3 Postby Siker » Sun Jul 21, 2019 10:54 am

This is the northern part of a tropical wave that the GFS had developing on the 7/14 18z run. However, that run showed not much organization beyond where it is right now until it was solidly in the Gulf of Mexico. With the front sweeping faster than what was forecast a week ago (happens on 300 hour forecasts), this won't make it far into the Gulf (if it even gets past Florida) and is very unlikely to find the moisture / time needed to develop beyond a borderline-TD.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#4 Postby N2FSU » Sun Jul 21, 2019 11:25 am

Yes I know it’s no good for tropical forecasting, but the 12Z NAM has a little stronger ridge extending further west over Florida.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#5 Postby N2FSU » Sun Jul 21, 2019 11:38 am

12z Intensity:

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#6 Postby Siker » Mon Jul 22, 2019 10:46 am

Trend NE away from the the Straits over the past 7 runs of the GFS:

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Re: ATL: THREE - Models

#7 Postby SEASON_CANCELED » Mon Jul 22, 2019 8:10 pm

Thats an interesting hook move

Hoping this stays weak
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