WPAC: LEKIMA - Post-Tropical

[TheAustinMan]

AMSU, which has been quite accurate for deriving pressures of storms of this caliber, suggests a pressure of around 922 mbar. Such pressures given the environment would suggest an intensity of 125-130 kt.

CIMSS/NESDIS-USAF/NRL AMSU TC Intensity Estimation:
TYPHOON 10W
Wednesday 07aug19 Time: 1213 UTC
Latitude: 21.62 Longitude: 127.08
Storm position corresponds to AMSU-A FOV 22 [1<--->30]
-----------------------------------------------------------------
| Estimated MSLP: 922 hPa
| Estimated Maximum Sustained Wind: 114 kts
| Estimate Confidence: Good ( +/- 10mb +/- 12kts )
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Storm is sub-sampled: Bias correction applied is -3.8 hPa
Channel 8 (~150 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 3.34
Channel 7 (~250 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 3.37
RMW: 9 km
RMW Source is: MW
Environmental Pressure: 998
Satellite: NOAA-18
ATCF data for Month: 08 Day: 07 Time (UTC): 1200

[Yellow Evan]

A storm of such small size would could higher than 125-130 knots though pending precise RMW.

[euro6208]

Estimates have been really behind on this rapidly intensifying typhoon.

ADT and SATCON at 120 knots. Could have been higher.

[Hayabusa]

Down to 925 mb

TY 1909 (Lekima)
Issued at 18:40 UTC, 7 August 2019

<Analysis at 18 UTC, 7 August>
Scale Large
Intensity Very strong
Center position N22°05' (22.1°)
E126°25' (126.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 925 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (90 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65 m/s (130 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 200 km (110 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 500 km (270 NM)

[Hayabusa]

10W LEKIMA 190807 1800 22.1N 126.4E WPAC 110 941

[Yellow Evan]

JTWC needs to stop doing this FT BO PT garbage.

TPPN12 PGTW 071833

A. TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA)

B. 07/1800Z

C. 22.07N

D. 126.41E

E. ONE/HMWRI8

F. T5.5/5.5/D2.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY B YIELDS AN
E# OF 5.5. ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG, TO YIELD A DT OF
6.0. MET YIELDS A 5.0 AND THE PT YIELDS A 5.5. DBO PT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
07/1501Z 21.73N 126.65E GPMI


MILAM

[Highteeld]

CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (mmddhhmm): 08071659
SATCON: MSLP = 926 hPa MSW = 124 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 121.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 115 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 210 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is 4.6 knots Source: IR

[doomhaMwx]

[Yellow Evan]

[1900hurricane]

https://i.imgur.com/JqnVxNR.png

JTWC came up with a FT of 6.0, which is the same as what I got. The white is right on the edge of being the embedded shade though.

TPPN12 PGTW 080032

A. TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA)

B. 08/0000Z

C. 22.70N

D. 125.97E

E. ONE/HMWRI8

F. T6.0/6.0/D2.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 03A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. DG EYE SURROUNDED BY B YIELDS AN
E# OF 5.5. ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG, TO YIELD A DT OF
6.0. THE MET YIELDS A 5.5 AND THE PT AGREES WITH THE DT. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


MILAM

I think I might go 125 kt at 00Z based on 130 kt AMSU and 120ish kt ATMS and ADT, although given the low bias of WPac ADT and some of the resolution issues ATMS has sometimes, 130 kt might actually be closer to reality.

[1900hurricane]

Lekima is also now in view of JMA radar.

[1900hurricane]

Both JMA and JTWC are at their verbatim T6.0 intensities for 00Z.

[1900hurricane]

James is ready to record some data!

 https://twitter.com/EarthUncutTV/status/1159244594401333248




 https://twitter.com/EarthUncutTV/status/1159272204116230144

[Highteeld]

Date (mmddhhmm): 08072157
SATCON: MSLP = 906 hPa MSW = 137 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 130.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 133 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 220 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is 5.9 knots Source: IR

[1900hurricane]

Looks like the eyewall might be starting to double up on radar, although the inner is still clearly dominant.



The 140ish kt SSMIS data cranked up SATCON even more. What is interesting is how deep SATCON is, but running KZC off JTWC data gives me very similar numbers. The large average 34 kt wind radius (215 nm) and low environmental pressure (oci = 995 mb) are outputting numbers that are interestingly very near the old AH77 values.

>>> l = 22.7
>>> oci = 995
>>> c = 7
>>> r34 = 215
>>> for v in range(115, 141, 5):
p = KZC(KZCdP(v, c, r34, l), oci)
print('%d kt, %.0f mb' % (v, p))


115 kt, 924 mb
120 kt, 919 mb
125 kt, 914 mb
130 kt, 909 mb
135 kt, 904 mb
140 kt, 899 mb

*EDIT: I also ran with JMA wind radii, and the output pressures were just 1 mb higher.

>>> l = 22.7
>>> oci = 995
>>> c = 7
>>> jma2jtwcR(270)
200.2699
>>> r34j = jma2jtwcR(270)
>>> for v in range (115, 141, 5):
p = KZC(KZCdP(v, c, r34j, l), oci)
print('%d kt, %.0f mb' % (v, p))


115 kt, 925 mb
120 kt, 920 mb
125 kt, 915 mb
130 kt, 910 mb
135 kt, 905 mb
140 kt, 900 mb

[mrbagyo]

10W LEKIMA 190808 0000 22.7N 126.0E WPAC 115 926

That Western Eyewall really look intense - even from a different radar.

[Tailspin]

Satcon 20mb lower than best track.
2019 WP 10 220.021 2019AUG08 003000 22.74 -125.60 2 906 137


10W LEKIMA 190808 0000 22.7N 126.0E WPAC 115 926

[mrbagyo]

Is this correct?
Super typhoon Lekima

10W LEKIMA 190808 0600 23.6N 125.5E WPAC 130 912


ERC

[euro6208]

Now a Super Typhoon.

Catching up but at least they upped the intensity.

[1900hurricane]

130-135 kt looks good to me. The outer eyewall has really sharpened up on radar imagery, so we might be near peak intensity now.